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Optimal asset allocation for commodity sovereign wealth funds

Author

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  • Alfonso A. Irarrazabal
  • Lin Ma
  • Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic asset allocation problem faced by an infinitively lived commodity-based sovereign wealth fund under incomplete markets. Assuming that the fund receives a non-tradable stream of commodity revenues until a predetermined date, the optimal consumption and investment strategies are state and time-dependent. Using data from the Norwegian Petroleum Fund, we find that the optimal demand for equity should decrease gradually from 60% to 40% over the next 60 years. However, the solution is particularly sensitive to the correlation between oil and stock price changes. We also estimate wealth-equivalent welfare losses, relative to the optimal rule, when following alternative suboptimal investment rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Lin Ma & Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez, 2023. "Optimal asset allocation for commodity sovereign wealth funds," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 471-495, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:23:y:2023:i:3:p:471-495
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2022.2158918
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    Cited by:

    1. Mork, Knut Anton & Harang, Fabian Andsem & Trønnes, Haakon Andreas & Bjerketvedt, Vegard Skonseng, 2023. "Dynamic spending and portfolio decisions with a soft social norm," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Wenling Liu & Fengmin Xu & Kui jing & Ziyue Hua, 2025. "Should the Occupational Pension Plans’ Investment be Long-Term or Short-Term? Evidence from China," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(6), pages 3391-3418, June.
    3. Knut Anton Mork & Haakon Andreas Trønnes & Vegard Skonseng Bjerketvedt, 2022. "Capital Preservation and Current Spending with Sovereign Wealth Funds and Endowment Funds: A simulation Study," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, August.
    4. Serrano, Rafael, 2023. "Climbing the income ladder: Search and investment in a regime-switching affine income model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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