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Futures Prices in a Production Economy with Investment Constraints

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  • Leonid Kogan
  • Dmitry Livdan
  • Amir Yaron

Abstract

We document a new stylized fact regarding the term-structure of futures volatility. We show that the relation between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the term structure of prices is non-monotone and has a "V-shape"'. This aspect of the data cannot be generated by basic models that emphasize storage while this fact is consistent with models that emphasize investment constraints or, more generally, time-varying supply-elasticity. We develop an equilibrium model in which futures prices are determined endogenously in a production economy in which investment is both irreversible and is capacity constrained. Investment constraints affect firms' investment decisions, which in turn determine the dynamic properties of their output and consequently imply that the supply-elasticity of the commodity changes over time. Since demand shocks must be absorbed either by changes in prices, or by changes in supply, time-varying supply-elasticity results in time-varying volatility of futures prices. Calibrating this model, we show it is quantitatively consistent with the aforementioned "V-shape" relation between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the term-structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonid Kogan & Dmitry Livdan & Amir Yaron, 2005. "Futures Prices in a Production Economy with Investment Constraints," NBER Working Papers 11509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11509
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Rui & Qi, Zhongying & Shu, Yumin, 2020. "Multiple relationships between fixed-asset investment and industrial structure evolution in China–Based on Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) analysis and VAR model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 222-231.
    2. Sang‐Kuck Chung, 2009. "Out‐of‐sample Hedge Performances for Risk Management in China Commodity Futures Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 349-372, September.
    3. Murray Carlson & Zeigham Khokher & Sheridan Titman, 2007. "Equilibrium Exhaustible Resource Price Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1663-1703, August.
    4. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 19065, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    5. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2006. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 12744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & McAleer, Michael, 2006. "Modeling dynamic conditional correlations in WTI oil forward and futures returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 114-132, June.
    7. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
    8. Razvan Tudor, 2009. "Evidence of unspanned stochastic volatility in crude-oil market," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 33, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    9. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 3966, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    10. Fink, Jason D. & Fink, Kristin E. & Russell, Allison, 2010. "When and how do tropical storms affect markets? The case of refined petroleum," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1283-1290, November.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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