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Hedges and Trees: Incorporating Fire Risk into Optimal Decisions in Forestry Using a No-Arbitrage Approach

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  • Insley, Margaret
  • Lei, Manle

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of including the risk of fire in an optimal tree harvesting model at the stand level, assuming timber prices follow a mean-reverting stochastic process. The relevant partial differential equation is derived under different assumptions about hedging the risk of fire. The assumption that fire risk is fully diversifiable is contrasted with the assumption that it can be hedged with another asset. It is conjectured that the risk-neutral probability of fire exceeds the historical probability of fire, which will affect forest land valuation. An empirical example is presented for two different silvicultural regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Insley, Margaret & Lei, Manle, 2007. "Hedges and Trees: Incorporating Fire Risk into Optimal Decisions in Forestry Using a No-Arbitrage Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(03), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:7084
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Margaret Insley & Kimberly Rollins, 2005. "On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 735-755.
    2. Motoh, Tsujimura, 2004. "Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 487-499, May.
    3. Jeffery D Amato & Eli M Remolona, 2003. "The credit spread puzzle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    4. Bruce McGough & Andrew J. Plantinga & Bill Provencher, 2004. "The Dynamic Behavior of Efficient Timber Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(1), pages 95-108.
    5. Reed, William J., 1984. "The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-190, June.
    6. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    7. Reed, William J., 1993. "The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 45-69, August.
    8. Jonathan Yoder, 2004. "Playing with Fire: Endogenous Risk in Resource Management," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 933-948.
    9. Englin, Jeffrey E. & Boxall, Peter C. & Hauer, Grant, 2000. "An Empirical Examination Of Optimal Rotations In A Multiple-Use Forest In The Presence Of Fire Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(01), July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Shan & Insley, Margaret, 2012. "Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 201-219.
    2. Creamer, Selmin F. & Genz, Alan & Blatner, Keith A., 2012. "The Effect of Fire Risk on the Critical Harvesting Times for Pacific Northwest Douglas-Fir When Carbon Price Is Stochastic," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), December.
    3. Christian S. L. Crowley & Arun S. Malik & Gregory S. Amacher & Robert G. Haight, 2009. "Adjacency Externalities and Forest Fire Prevention," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(1), pages 162-185.
    4. Work, J. & Qiu, F. & Luckert, M.K., 2016. "Examining hardwood pulp and ethanol prices for improved poplar plantations in Canada," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 9-15.
    5. Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    6. C.E. Dangerfield & A.E. Whalley & Nick Hanley & C.A. Gilligan, 2016. "What a difference a stochastic process makes: epidemiological-based real options models of optimal treatment of disease," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2016-03, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
    7. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.

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