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Citations for "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions"

by Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims

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  1. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2004. "Similarities and Convergence in G7 Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 4534, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
  3. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
  4. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 634, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  5. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "“Ripple Effects” and Forecasting Home Prices In Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," Working Papers 200901, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Leonardo Melosi, 2009. "A Likelihood Analysis of Models with Information Frictions," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-009, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  7. BAUWENS, Luc & KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "Bayesian methods," CORE Discussion Papers 2011061, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Luc Bauwens & Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Bayesian methods," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 16, pages 363-380 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  8. Heather M Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  9. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2007. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Discussion Papers 7_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  11. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2002. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy; Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time?," IMF Working Papers 02/54, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2011. "Fundamentals, Financial Factors, and the Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(0), pages 88-105, May.
  13. John Geweke, 1992. "Priors for macroeconomic time series and their application," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 64, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2008. "Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 200821, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  15. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, 03.
  16. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
  17. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9823, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Gary Koop, 2010. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 43_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  19. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Bayesian VARs with large panels," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  20. Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 36147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2004. "On the Time Variations of US Monetary Policy: Who is right?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  22. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Forecasting using relative entropy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  23. Alvarez, Luis J. & Delrieu, Juan C. & Jareño, Javier, 1997. "Restricted forecasts and economic target monitoring: An application to the Spanish Consumer Price Index," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 333-349, June.
  24. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Methods for computing marginal data densities from the Gibbs output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 132-141.
  25. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  26. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  27. Hanif, Muhammad Nadim & Malik, Muhammad Jahanzeb, 2015. "Evaluating Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 66843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.
  29. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Assessing the transmission of monetary policy using dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 27593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
  30. Evan W. Anderson & Lars Peter Hansen & Ellen R. McGrattan & Thomas J. Sargent, 1995. "On the mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies," Staff Report 198, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  31. S. Boragan Aruoba & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Sticky prices versus monetary frictions: an estimation of policy trade-offs," Working Papers 09-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  32. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of House Prices: A Case Study of the Southern California Market," Working Papers 0912, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics, revised Dec 2009.
  33. Rangan Gupta & Rudi Steinbach, 2010. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy: A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR Model," Working Papers 201019, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  34. Pesaran, Hashem & Chudik, Alexander, 2010. "Econometric analysis of high dimensional VARs featuring a dominant unit," Working Paper Series 1194, European Central Bank.
  35. Dowd, Michael R. & LeSage, James P., 1997. "Analysis of spatial contiguity influences on state price level formation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 245-253, June.
  36. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  37. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 47_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  38. Carrera, Cesar & Ledesma, Alan, 2015. "Proyección de la inflación agregada con modelos de vectores autorregresivos bayesianos," Working Papers 2015-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  39. Gambetti, Luca & D’Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2010. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Working Paper Series 1167, European Central Bank.
  40. Michael L. Bagshaw, 1986. "Comparison of univariate ARIMA, multivariate ARIMA and vector autoregression forecasting," Working Paper 8602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  41. Christian Julliard, 2003. "The international diversification puzzle is not worse than you think," International Finance 0301004, EconWPA.
  42. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/30, European University Institute.
  43. Österholm, Pär, 2006. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Working Paper Series 2006:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  44. Jacq, P. & Jondeau, E. & Sedillot, F., 1993. "Les politiques monetaires au sein du SME," Papers 1993-13-f, Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche.
  45. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "A DSGE-VAR for the Euro Area," 2004 Meeting Papers 43, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  46. Luigi Paciello, 2009. "Does Inflation Adjust Faster to Aggregate Technology Shocks than to Monetary Policy Shocks?," EIEF Working Papers Series 0917, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2011.
  47. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "Could We Have Predicted The Recent Downturn In The South African Housing Market?," Working Papers 200831, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  48. William A. Barnett & Unja Chae & John W. Keating, 2011. "The Discounted Economic Stock of Money with VAR Forecasting," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 4, pages 107-150 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  49. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 7796, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  50. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy," CEPR Discussion Papers 8273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  51. Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid, 2012. "Macroeconomic Surprises and Stock Returns in South Africa," Working Papers 201212, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  52. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2011. "A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1076-1088, October.
  53. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2011. "How important is the term structure in implied volatility surface modeling? Evidence from foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 623-640, June.
  54. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F467-F486, November.
  55. Yongsung Chang & Taeyoung Doh & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Non-stationary hours in a DSGE model," Working Papers 06-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  56. Domenico Giannone & Troy Matheson, 2006. "A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  57. Matthieu Droumaguet & Anders Warne & Tomasz Wozniak, 2015. "Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1191, The University of Melbourne.
  58. Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2006. "Forecasting Canadian Time Series With the New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 382, Central Bank of Chile.
  59. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
  60. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 185-213.
  61. Kenneth Beauchemin & Saeed Zaman, 2011. "A medium scale forecasting model for monetary policy," Working Paper 1128, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  62. Ghent, Andra C., 2009. "Comparing DSGE-VAR forecasting models: How big are the differences?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 864-882, April.
  63. Patricio Jaramillo, 2009. "Estimación de Var Bayesianos para la Economía Chilena," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 24(1), pages 101-126, Junio.
  64. Sonsoles Castillo & Fernando C. Ballabriga, 2003. "BBVA-ARIES: a forecasting and simulation model for EMU," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 411-426.
  65. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  66. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  67. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
  68. Gonzalo Fernandez-de-Córdoba & José L. Torres, 2009. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an Augmented VAR-DSGE model," Working Papers 2009-1, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center.
  69. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Empirical Analysis of Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. D.S. Poskitt, 2009. "Vector Autoregresive Moving Average Identification for Macroeconomic Modeling: Algorithms and Theory," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  71. Edward K. Offenbacher & Richard D. Porter & Georg Rich, 1983. "Empirical comparisons of credit and monetary aggregates using vector autoregressive methods," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 16-29.
  72. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Asset prices, Credit and Investment in Emerging Markets," NIPE Working Papers 18/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  73. Albrecht Ritschl & Ulrich Woitek, . "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? A Bayesian VAR Analysis for the U.S. Economy," IEW - Working Papers 050, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  74. Alessandra Del Boca & Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2010. "Macroeconomic instability and the Phillips curve in Italy," Working Papers 1013, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  75. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  76. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  77. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2006. "Has the transmission mechanism of European monetary policy changed in the run-up to EMU?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 737-776, April.
  78. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2009. "Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe," Economics Working Papers 1158, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2012.
  79. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  80. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics Under Model Uncertainty. Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," CSEF Working Papers 231, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  81. Jarociński, Marek & Marcet, Albert, 2010. "Autoregressions in small samples, priors about observables and initial conditions," Working Paper Series 1263, European Central Bank.
  82. Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2006. "Monetary policy regime shifts: new evidence from time-varying interest rate rules," Working Papers 0602, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  83. Andrea Carriero, 2011. "Forecasting The Yield Curve Using Priors From No‐Arbitrage Affine Term Structure Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 425-459, 05.
  84. Carolyn Njenga & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Modeling Mortality with a Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 201105, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
  85. Yongsung Chang & Joao F. Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Learning-by-Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1498-1520, December.
  86. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  87. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Housing Prices: A Case Study of Twenty US States," Working Papers 200912, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  88. Quinn, Terry & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "Inflation Analysis: An Overview," MPRA Paper 11361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  89. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarociński, 2010. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 222-46, October.
  90. Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  91. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  92. Raffaella Giacomini & Clive W.J. Granger, 2002. "Aggregation of Space-Time Processes," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 582, Boston College Department of Economics.
  93. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," MPRA Paper 11360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  94. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Methods for Trending Multiple Time Series with an Empirical Application to the US Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1025, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  95. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Time Series Modeling with a Bayesian Frame of Reference: Concepts, Illustrations and Asymptotics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1038, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  98. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Sectoral Employment," Working Papers 201101, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  99. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
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  102. Pablo A Guerron-Quintana & James M Nason, 2012. "Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models," CAMA Working Papers 2012-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & James M. Nason, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of DSGE models," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 21, pages 486-512 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  103. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter & Rodney W. Strachan, 2005. "Re-examining the Consumption-Wealth Relationship: The Role of Model Uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/3, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
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  105. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 79-98.
  106. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  109. Cesar Carrera & Alan Ledesma, 2015. "Aggregate Inflation Forecast with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 2015-50, Peruvian Economic Association.
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