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Avaliando a Condição da Política Fiscal no Brasil

  • Mário Jorge Mendonça
  • Luis Alberto Medrano
  • Adolfo Sachsida

Este artigo estima o estado da política fiscal no Brasil desde 1997, com base na metodologia de previsão condicional (DOAN; LITTERMAN; SIMS, 1984; WAGGONER; ZHA, 1999). Este indicador é medido pela diferença dos valores preditos para o hiato do produto quando condicionado aos valores observados e de equilíbrio estacionário dos instrumentos de política fiscal – carga tributária líquida e gastos correntes do governo. Nossos resultados indicam que a condição fiscal foi neutra de 2004 a 2006, porém expansiva em 2007. Não se observou evidência estatística de que a política fiscal tem exercido pressão sobre a inflação; contudo, há evidência de que a condição fiscal tem afetado negativamente o produto da economia. This article estimates the stance of fiscal policy using the framework of conditional forecasting to evaluate the stance in Brazil since 1997. This indicator is measured as the deviation of forecast of the output gap conditional to the observed values and steady-state values of the instruments of fiscal policy–the current government spending and the net tax. Our results indicate that fiscal stance has been neutral since 2004 but expansionary after 2007. There is no statistical evidence that fiscal policy is putting pressure on the inflation but there does exist statistical evidence that it has negatively affected the output gap.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1409.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1409
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  1. John Freebairn & Bill Griffiths, 2006. "Introduction," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages S1-S1, 09.
  2. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
  4. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 339-366.
  5. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
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