Avaliando a Condição da Política Fiscal no Brasil
Este artigo estima o estado da política fiscal no Brasil desde 1997, com base na metodologia de previsão condicional (DOAN; LITTERMAN; SIMS, 1984; WAGGONER; ZHA, 1999). Este indicador é medido pela diferença dos valores preditos para o hiato do produto quando condicionado aos valores observados e de equilíbrio estacionário dos instrumentos de política fiscal – carga tributária líquida e gastos correntes do governo. Nossos resultados indicam que a condição fiscal foi neutra de 2004 a 2006, porém expansiva em 2007. Não se observou evidência estatística de que a política fiscal tem exercido pressão sobre a inflação; contudo, há evidência de que a condição fiscal tem afetado negativamente o produto da economia. This article estimates the stance of fiscal policy using the framework of conditional forecasting to evaluate the stance in Brazil since 1997. This indicator is measured as the deviation of forecast of the output gap conditional to the observed values and steady-state values of the instruments of fiscal policy–the current government spending and the net tax. Our results indicate that fiscal stance has been neutral since 2004 but expansionary after 2007. There is no statistical evidence that fiscal policy is putting pressure on the inflation but there does exist statistical evidence that it has negatively affected the output gap.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2009|
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- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983.
"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,"
NBER Working Papers
1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
- Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 339-366.
- Jarociński, Marek & Smets, Frank, 2008. "House Prices and the stance of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 0891, European Central Bank.
- John Freebairn & Bill Griffiths, 2006. "Introduction," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 1-1, 09. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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