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BBVA-ARIES: a forecasting and simulation model for EMU

Author

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  • Sonsoles Castillo

    (Research Department, BBVA)

  • Fernando C. Ballabriga

    (ESADE, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

This paper describes the BBVA-ARIES, a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) for the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In addition to providing EMU-wide growth and inflation forecasts, the model provides an assessment of the interactions between key EMU macroeconomic variables and external ones, such as world GDP or commodity prices. A comparison of the forecasts generated by the model and those of private analysts and public institutions reveals a very positive balance in favour of the model. For their part, the simulations allow us to assess the potential macroeconomic effects of macroeconomic developments in the EMU. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonsoles Castillo & Fernando C. Ballabriga, 2003. "BBVA-ARIES: a forecasting and simulation model for EMU," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 411-426.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:5:p:411-426
    DOI: 10.1002/for.861
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.861
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernando C. Ballabriga & Luis Julián Álvarez González & Javier Jareño Morago, 1998. "Un modelo macroeconómico BVAR para la economía española: metodología y resultados," Estudios Económicos, Banco de España;Estudios Económicos Homepage, number 64, June.
    2. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Luis J. Álvarez & Fernando C. Ballabriga, 1994. "BVAR models in the context of cointegration: A Monte Carlo experiment," Working Papers 9405, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    7. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1990. "BVAR Forecasts of the World Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.

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