BBVA-ARIES: a forecasting and simulation model for EMU
This paper describes the BBVA-ARIES, a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) for the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In addition to providing EMU-wide growth and inflation forecasts, the model provides an assessment of the interactions between key EMU macroeconomic variables and external ones, such as world GDP or commodity prices. A comparison of the forecasts generated by the model and those of private analysts and public institutions reveals a very positive balance in favour of the model. For their part, the simulations allow us to assess the potential macroeconomic effects of macroeconomic developments in the EMU. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 22 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1990. "BVAR Forecasts of the World Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983.
"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,"
NBER Working Papers
1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Luis J. Álvarez & Fernando C. Ballabriga, 1994. "BVAR models in the context of cointegration: A Monte Carlo experiment," Working Papers 9405, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:5:p:411-426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.