IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/exe/wpaper/1708.html

Propagation of Commodity Market Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Annalisa Marini

    (Department of Economics, University of Exeter)

  • Steve McCorriston

    (Department of Economics, University of Exeter)

Abstract

We address the transmission of commodity price shocks and assess how source-specific shocks spillover to other exporting countries.Applying a multi-country panel VAR, we show that a model that allows for cross-country interdependencies is an appropriate specification of commodity markets. Source-specific shocks therefore have both direct and spillover effects and the results indicate that these spillover effects are both statistically and economically significant. Accounting for these spillover effects has important implications for understanding commodity price dynamics and the management of price shocks in both exporting and importing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Annalisa Marini & Steve McCorriston, 2017. "Propagation of Commodity Market Shocks," Discussion Papers 1708, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:1708
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://exetereconomics.github.io/RePEc/dpapers/DP1708.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Jacopo Perego, 2011. "Country Heterogeneity and the International Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 652-682, November.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Model uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-131.
    4. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2017. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences between spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Luciano Gutierrez & Francesco Piras & Pier Paolo Roggero, 2015. "A Global Vector Autoregression Model for the Analysis of Wheat Export Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1494-1511.
    7. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    8. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 198-204, May.
    9. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 0. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    10. Axel Marx & Miet Maertens & Johan Swinnen & Jan Wouters (ed.), 2012. "Private Standards and Global Governance," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14250, August.
    11. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2011. "Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 4-22, July.
    12. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2015. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Working Papers 793, Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2007. "What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 55-87.
    14. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    15. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    16. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. A. Marx & M. Maertens & J. Swinnen, 2012. "Conclusion – Private Standards: a Global Governance Tool?," Chapters, in: Axel Marx & Miet Maertens & Johan Swinnen & Jan Wouters (ed.), Private Standards and Global Governance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    19. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
    21. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Borsky & Martin Jury, 2020. "The role of global supply chains in the transmission of weather induced production shocks," Graz Economics Papers 2020-13, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    2. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides & Livia Chatzieleftheriou & Arsenios‐Georgios N. Prelorentzos, 2022. "Crisis and the Chinese miracle: A network—GVAR model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 900-921, July.
    4. Mundt, Philipp, 2021. "The formation of input–output architecture: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 89-104.
    5. Annalisa Marini, 2019. "The Impact of Weather on Commodity Prices: A Warning for the Future," Discussion Papers 1902, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    6. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2022. "Economic Networks: Theory and Computation," Papers 2203.11972, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    7. Ernest Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dynamical Structure and Spectral Properties of Input-Output Networks," Working Papers 2021-13, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    8. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    9. Goya, Daniel, 2021. "The network effect of Chinese competition on what domestic suppliers produce," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Yoshiyuki ARATA & Daisuke MIYAKAWA, 2022. "Demand Shock Propagation Through an Input-output Network in Japan," Discussion papers 22027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
    14. Alonso de Gortari, 2018. "Disentangling Global Value Chains," 2018 Meeting Papers 139, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Gee Hee HONG & Arata ITO & Yukiko SAITO & Thi-Ngoc Anh NGUYEN, 2020. "Structural Changes in Japanese SMEs: Business Dynamism in Aging Society and Inter-Firm Transaction Network," Policy Discussion Papers 20003, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2017. "Price rigidities and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2102, European Central Bank.
    17. Basile Grassi, 2017. "IO in I-O: Competition and Volatility in Input-Output Networks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1637, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Lee, Dongyeol, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through vertical and trade linkages in Korea: An empirical analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Ahmadi, Maryam & Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2025. "Climate shocks, economic activity and cross-country spillovers: Evidence from a new global model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    20. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:1708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sebastian Kripfganz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deexeuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.