IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The U.S. economy in 1990 and 1991: continued expansion likely

  • David E. Runkle
Registered author(s):

    This paper reports an optimistic forecast of U.S. output and inflation trends in 1990_91. Generated by a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model of the U.S. economy using data available on November 30, 1989, the forecast is more optimistic than a consensus forecast. The key to the model's greater optimism for real growth is its outlook for strong consumer spending. The model's optimism is defended by examining historical precedents as well as comparing the track records of the model and consensus forecasts. The model's measures of forecast uncertainty, however, suggest that its predictions should be taken cautiously. An appendix explains how the model can be used to generate conditional forecasts.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr1342.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr1342.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its journal Quarterly Review.

    Volume (Year): (1989)
    Issue (Month): Fall ()
    Pages: 19-26

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1989:i:fall:p:19-26:n:v.13no.4
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 90 Hennepin Avenue, P.O. Box 291, Minneapolis, MN 55480-0291
    Phone: (612) 204-5000
    Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/

    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information: Web: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/ Email:


    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 26-33.
    2. Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
    3. Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Above-average national growth in 1985 and 1986," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
    4. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Miller, Preston J & Roberds, William T, 1991. "The Quantitative Significance of the Lucas Critique," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 361-87, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1989:i:fall:p:19-26:n:v.13no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janelle Ruswick)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.