Bad news from a forecasting model of the U.S. economy
This paper describes and analyzes the 1990-92 economic forecasts of a Bayesian vector autoregression model developed by researchers at the Minneapolis Fed. The model's 1990 forecast was pretty bad - too optimistic about both inflation and economic growth, especially growth in consumption and housing. An analysis of the model's errors, however, turns up no reason to think the model is unsound. Based on data available on November 30, 1990, the model predicts weak economic conditions for the next two years: a likely recession in 1991 and moderate inflation and weak overall growth in 1991-92. The paper includes a technical appendix that describes how to statistically compare the accuracy of two sets of forecasts.
Volume (Year): (1990)
Issue (Month): Fall ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 90 Hennepin Avenue, P.O. Box 291, Minneapolis, MN 55480-0291|
Phone: (612) 204-5000
Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 26-33.
- Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Newey, Whitney K, 1985. "Maximum Likelihood Specification Testing and Conditional Moment Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 1047-1070, September.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Above-average national growth in 1985 and 1986," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1990:i:fall:p:2-10:n:v.14no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jannelle Ruswick)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.