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Giovanni Ricco

Citations

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RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)

Working papers

  1. Pirozhkova, Ekaterina & Ricco, Giovanni & Viegi, Nicola, 2024. "Trouble Every Day: Monetary Policy in an Open Emerging Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 19094, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Sekkel & Henry Stern & Xu Zhang, 2025. "Money Talks: How Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy Communications Move Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 25-33, Bank of Canada.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2025. "Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 163, February.

  2. Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki Simon Hong & Giovanni Ricco, 2024. "The global transmission of U.S. monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1466, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Cited by:

    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Haonan Zhou, 2023. "The Global Dollar Cycle," NBER Working Papers 31004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rogers, John & Sun, Bo & Wu, Wenbin, 2025. "Drivers of the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Are all Central Bank Asset Purchases the Same? Different Rationales, Different Effects," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03554141, HAL.
    4. Riccardo Degasperi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2024. "US monetary policy spillovers to the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 891, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    6. Qi, Tong & Ying, Jiezhou, 2025. "U.S. monetary policy and portfolio spillover effects: The role of global production network," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Luchelle Soobyah & Mulalo Mamburu & Nicola Viegi, 2023. "Is South Africa falling into a fiscal dominant regime," Working Papers 11046, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy R., 2023. "Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world," Working Paper Series 2879, European Central Bank.
    9. Santiago Camara, 2021. "Spillovers of US Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2111.08631, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    10. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel, 2023. "Soft or strong: the art of monetary tightening," Working Papers hal-03954545, HAL.
    12. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2024. "Measuring multiple monetary policy shocks based on heteroscedasticity," IRENE Working Papers 24-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    14. Licheng Zhang & Shengtao Luo, 2025. "Time-varying return correlations and spillovers between bitcoin and traditional assets: the impact of COVID-19 and US monetary policy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-28, June.
    15. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Gökhan Ider & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Frederik Kurcz & Ben Schumann, 2023. "The Energy-Price Channel of (European) Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2033, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The simpler the better: measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2451, European Central Bank.
    18. Zhang, Wen, 2022. "China’s government spending and global inflation dynamics: The role of the oil price channel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    19. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    20. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Reprint of “Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle”," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    21. Cloyne, James S. & Hürtgen, Patrick & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Global monetary and financial spillovers: Evidence from a new measure of Bundesbank policy shocks," Discussion Papers 34/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Rujin, Svetlana, 2024. "Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    23. Alain Kabundi & Tumisang Loate & Nicola Viegi, 2020. "Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 435-471, December.
    24. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    25. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    26. Alisdair McKay & Christian K. Wolf, 2023. "What Can Time-Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?," Staff Report 642, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    27. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2025. "Monetary policy spillovers: Is this time different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    28. London, Mélina & Silvestrini, Maéva, 2025. "US monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: The role of trade credit," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    29. Tobias Adrian & Gaston Gelos & Nora Lamersdorf & Emanuel Moench, 2024. "The asymmetric and persistent effects of Fed policy on global bond yields," BIS Working Papers 1195, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Beutel, Johannes & Emter, Lorenz & Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban & Schüler, Yves, 2025. "The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    31. Camara, Santiago, 2025. "Spillovers of US interest rates: Monetary policy & information effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    32. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Financial shocks, credit spreads, and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    33. Santiago Camara & Maximo Sangiacomo, 2022. "Borrowing Constraints in Emerging Markets," Papers 2211.10864, arXiv.org.
    34. Beck, Roland & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Brüggemann, Axel & Cezar, Rafael & Eijking, Carlijn & Eller, Markus & Fuentes, Alberto & Alves, Joel Graça & Kreitz, Lilian & Marsilli, Clement & Moder, Isabella, 2023. "Recent advances in the literature on capital flow management," Occasional Paper Series 317, European Central Bank.
    35. Liu, Lu & Wang, Chuanjiang, 2025. "Monetary policy and corporate financialization drive sustainable technology," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    36. Boeck, Maximilian & Mori, Lorenzo, 2025. "Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    37. Pei-Fen, Chen & Mei-Ping, Chen & Min-Syu, Lin & Chingnun, Lee, 2025. "Cross-border transmission effect of China's monetary policy on the exchange rate of Asia-Pacific economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    38. Zhang, Mi & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Cheng, Feiyang, 2025. "Can bilateral RMB swap reduce monetary policy spillovers from the United States to China?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    39. Ordu-Akkaya, Beyza Mina & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2025. "Commodity dependence: Providing information on emerging market CDS spreads when economic indicators are absent," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    40. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    41. Dong, Xiao & Yu, Mingzhe, 2024. "Time-varying effects of macro shocks on cross-border capital flows in China's bond market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PC).
    42. Mistak, Jakub & Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2024. "Asymmetric monetary policy spillovers: the role of supply chains, credit networks and fear of floating," Working Paper Series 2995, European Central Bank.
    43. Christoph Lauper & Giacomo Mangiante, 2024. "Monetary policy shocks and inflation inequality," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1474, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    44. Gökhan Ider & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Frederik Kurcz & Ben Schumann, 2024. "Friend, Not Foe - Energy Prices and European Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2089, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    45. Camehl, Annika & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2026. "What explains international interest rate co-movement?," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2026.
    46. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    47. Dées, Stéphane & Galesi, Alessandro, 2021. "The Global Financial Cycle and US monetary policy in an interconnected world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    48. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Global risk and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2628, European Central Bank.
    49. Feng, Ling & Pei, Tingting & Zhou, Zhiguang, 2024. "The impact of U.S. monetary policy on Chinese firms’ innovation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1097-1111.
    50. Mélina London & Maëva Silvestrini, 2023. "US Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: the Trade Credit Channel," Working papers 915, Banque de France.
    51. Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    52. Ozge Akinci & Gianluca Benigno & Serra Pelin & Jon Turek, 2024. "The Dollar’s Imperial Circle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 653-700, June.
    53. Santiago Camara, 2021. "US Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: Information effects & Financial Flows," Papers 2108.01026, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    54. Corbo, Vesna & Di Casola, Paola, 2022. "Drivers of consumer prices and exchange rates in small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    55. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    56. Caldara, Dario & Ferrante, Francesco & Iacoviello, Matteo & Prestipino, Andrea & Queralto, Albert, 2024. "The international spillovers of synchronous monetary tightening," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 127-152.

  3. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2023. "Bayesian Local Projections," Working Papers Series 581, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Atsushi Inoue & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2024. "Inference for Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-29, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Le, Anh H., 2025. "Climate change and Carbon policy: A story of optimal green macroprudential and capital flow management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Tomás Opazo, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence for US Households," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 992, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Bernardini, Marco & De Nicola, Annalisa, 2025. "The market stabilization role of central bank asset purchases: High-frequency evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Viktoriia Bannikova & Sofya Kolesnik, 2025. "Assessing the predictability of market interest rate changes on Central Bank of Russia press release days," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 77, pages 25-45.
    6. Ho, Paul & Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2024. "Averaging impulse responses using prediction pools," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024. "Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    8. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Drechsel, Thomas, 2024. "The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
    9. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2025. "Time-varying Local Projections with Stochastic Volatility," Discussion Paper Series 761, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

  4. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Ricco, Giovanni, 2023. "External Instrument SVAR Analysis for Noninvertible Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2023. "Bayesian Local Projections," Working Papers Series 581, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Davide Brignone & Alessandro Franconi & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "Robust Impulse Responses using External Instruments: the Role of Information," Papers 2307.06145, arXiv.org.
    3. Odendahl, Florens & Pagliari, Maria Sole & Penalver, Adrian & Rossi, Barbara & Sestieri, Giulia, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy effects. Does the shape of the yield curve matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    4. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2024. "The macroeconomic impact of euro area labor market reforms: evidence from a narrative panel VAR," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Luca Eduardo Fierro & Mario Martinoli, 2024. "An Empirical Inquiry into the Distributional Consequences of Energy Price Shocks," LEM Papers Series 2024/30, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò & Sala, Luca, 2024. "The effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

  5. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," Papers 2201.05556, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.

    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Barigozzi & Filippo Pellegrino, 2023. "Multidimensional dynamic factor models," Papers 2301.12499, arXiv.org.

  6. Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "Identification with external instruments in structural VARs," Bank of England working papers 973, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Alsalman, Zeina & Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "Oil news shocks and the U.S. stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani & Filippo Natoli, 2025. "The macroeconomic effects of a greener technology mix," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1482, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2025. "The international transmission of Chinese monetary policy and the commodity channel," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1510, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Sofia Velasco, 2025. "Let the Tree Decide: FABART A Non-Parametric Factor Model," Papers 2506.11551, arXiv.org.
    5. Jiang, Shifu, 2024. "The effect of monetary policies on inflation: A fiscal perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    6. Robert Goodhead & Benedikt Kolb, 2025. "Monetary policy communication shocks and the macroeconomy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(365), pages 173-198, January.
    7. Karau, Sören, 2024. "Relative monetary policy and exchange rates," Discussion Papers 40/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Bundick, Brent & Herriford, Trenton & Smith, A. Lee, 2024. "The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    9. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    10. Longaric, Pablo Anaya & Cera, Katharina & Georgiadis, Georgios & Kaufmann, Christoph, 2025. "Investment funds and euro disaster risk," Working Paper Series 3029, European Central Bank.
    11. Peter Ajonghakoh Foabeh & Vesarach Aumeboonsuke, 2024. "Resilience of Developing Economies to External Shocks: Empirical Evidence from CEMAC Countries," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(3), pages 1-81, May.
    12. Boeck, Maximilian & Mori, Lorenzo, 2025. "Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    13. Banerjee, Joshua J., 2024. "Inflationary oil shocks, fiscal policy, and debt dynamics: New evidence from oil-importing OECD economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    14. Eric T. Swanson, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1152-1184, September.
    15. Luca Eduardo Fierro & Mario Martinoli, 2024. "An Empirical Inquiry into the Distributional Consequences of Energy Price Shocks," LEM Papers Series 2024/30, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. Nguyen, Lam, 2025. "Bayesian inference in proxy SVARs with incomplete identification: Re-evaluating the validity of monetary policy instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    17. Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024. "Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    18. Carlos Alba & Julio A. Carrillo & Raúl Ibarra, 2024. "Information Effects of US Monetary Policy Announcements on Emerging Economies: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2024-14, Banco de México.
    19. Maximilian Boeck & Thomas O. Zörner, 2024. "The Impact of Credit Market Sentiment Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(7), pages 1645-1673, October.
    20. Endong Wang, 2024. "Local projections identify the same policy counterfactuals as empirical and structural models," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    21. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2023. "Are the effects of uncertainty shocks big or small?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

  7. Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Matthieu Tarbé, 2021. "Monetary-Fiscal Crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," BIS Working Papers 940, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Michele Andreolli & Hélène Rey, 2024. "Fiscal Consequences of Missing an Inflation Target," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 701-772, June.
    2. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "The effects of monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability regimes in the Euro Area," Working Papers REM 2023/0281, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Kloosterman, Roben & Bonam, Dennis & van der Veer, Koen, 2024. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Roben Kloosterman & Dennis Bonam & Koen van der Veer, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Working Papers 755, DNB.
    5. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2025. "Large structural VARs with multiple linear shock and impact inequality restrictions," Papers 2505.19244, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    6. Ling Wang, 2025. "Bank financing for SMEs in times of crisis: when “whatever-it-takes” confronts “black swans”," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 777-812, August.
    7. Afonso, Antonio & Alves, José & Ionta, Serena, 2025. "Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: A panel analysis of the Euro Area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Bouabdallah, Othman & Jacquinot, Pascal & Patella, Valeria, 2023. "Monetary/fiscal policy regimes in post-war Europe," Working Paper Series 2871, European Central Bank.
    9. Serena Ionta & António Afonso & José Alves, 2025. "Monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability: the case of the Euro Area," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-20, June.
    10. Rant, Vasja & Puc, Anja & Čok, Mitja & Verbič, Miroslav, 2024. "Macroeconomic impacts of monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area in times of shifting policies: A SVAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

  8. Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Thomas Hasenzagl, 2020. "Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03403077, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2020. "Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators," Working Papers 20-13R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    2. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    3. Tony Chernis & Patrick J. Coe & Shaun P. Vahey, 2023. "Reassessing the dependence between economic growth and financial conditions since 1973," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 260-267, March.
    4. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03573080, HAL.
    5. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    6. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," Working Papers 22-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 11 Apr 2023.
    7. Figueres, Juan Manuel & Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Vulnerable growth in the euro area: Measuring the financial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Gonzalez Rivera, Gloria & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32148, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2021. "The simpler, the better: Measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," EIB Working Papers 2021/10, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    10. Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2024. "Reprint of: Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage: An application to Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    11. Sui, Jianli & Lv, Wenqiang & Gao, Xiang & Koedijk, Kees G., 2024. "China’s GDP-at-Risk: Real-Time Monitoring, Risk Tracing, and Macroeconomic Policy Effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    12. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
    13. Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2023. "Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage an application to Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    14. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    15. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
    16. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
    17. Simone Arrigoni & Alina Bobasu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 668-697, December.
    18. Aaron Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2022. "On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth," Working Papers 2022-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 03 Jun 2022.
    19. Delle Monache, Davide & De Polis, Andrea & Petrella, Ivan, 2021. "Modeling and forecasting macroeconomic downside risk," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1324, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2556, European Central Bank.
    21. Gloria González‐Rivera & C. Vladimir Rodríguez‐Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 926-942, August.
    22. Behera, Harendra & Gunadi, Iman & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2023. "COVID-19 uncertainty, financial markets and monetary policy effects in case of two emerging Asian countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 173-189.
    23. Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    24. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Vulnerable funding in the global economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    25. Jan Prüser & Florian Huber, 2024. "Nonlinearities in macroeconomic tail risk through the lens of big data quantile regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 269-291, March.
    26. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Investigating Growth at Risk Using a Multi-country Non-parametric Quantile Factor Model," Papers 2110.03411, arXiv.org.
    27. Diego Chicana & Rafael Nivin, 2021. "Evaluating Growth-at-Risk as a tool for monitoring macro-financial risks in the Peruvian economy," IHEID Working Papers 07-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    28. Moramarco, Graziano, 2024. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 777-795.

  9. Paolo Andreini & Cosimo Izzo & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "Deep Dynamic Factor Models," Papers 2007.11887, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.

    Cited by:

    1. Trent Spears & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2023. "On statistical arbitrage under a conditional factor model of equity returns," Papers 2309.02205, arXiv.org.
    2. Fernández-Avilés, Gema & Mattera, Raffaele & Scepi, Germana, 2024. "Factor-Augmented Autoregressive Neural Network to forecast NOx in the city of Madrid," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.

  10. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Hasenzagl, Thomas, 2020. "Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability," CEPR Discussion Papers 14322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2020. "Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators," Working Papers 20-13R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    2. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    3. Tony Chernis & Patrick J. Coe & Shaun P. Vahey, 2023. "Reassessing the dependence between economic growth and financial conditions since 1973," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 260-267, March.
    4. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03573080, HAL.
    5. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    6. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," Working Papers 22-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 11 Apr 2023.
    7. Figueres, Juan Manuel & Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Vulnerable growth in the euro area: Measuring the financial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Gonzalez Rivera, Gloria & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32148, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2021. "The simpler, the better: Measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," EIB Working Papers 2021/10, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    10. Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2024. "Reprint of: Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage: An application to Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    11. Sui, Jianli & Lv, Wenqiang & Gao, Xiang & Koedijk, Kees G., 2024. "China’s GDP-at-Risk: Real-Time Monitoring, Risk Tracing, and Macroeconomic Policy Effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    12. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
    13. Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2023. "Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage an application to Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    14. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    15. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
    16. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
    17. Simone Arrigoni & Alina Bobasu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 668-697, December.
    18. Aaron Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2022. "On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth," Working Papers 2022-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 03 Jun 2022.
    19. Delle Monache, Davide & De Polis, Andrea & Petrella, Ivan, 2021. "Modeling and forecasting macroeconomic downside risk," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1324, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2556, European Central Bank.
    21. Gloria González‐Rivera & C. Vladimir Rodríguez‐Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 926-942, August.
    22. Behera, Harendra & Gunadi, Iman & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2023. "COVID-19 uncertainty, financial markets and monetary policy effects in case of two emerging Asian countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 173-189.
    23. Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    24. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Vulnerable funding in the global economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    25. Jan Prüser & Florian Huber, 2024. "Nonlinearities in macroeconomic tail risk through the lens of big data quantile regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 269-291, March.
    26. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Investigating Growth at Risk Using a Multi-country Non-parametric Quantile Factor Model," Papers 2110.03411, arXiv.org.
    27. Diego Chicana & Rafael Nivin, 2021. "Evaluating Growth-at-Risk as a tool for monitoring macro-financial risks in the Peruvian economy," IHEID Working Papers 07-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    28. Moramarco, Graziano, 2024. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 777-795.

  11. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03403269, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2022. "Euro area stock markets integration: Empirical evidence after the end of 2010 debt crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    2. Ingrid-Mihaela Dragotă & Andreea Curmei-Semenescu & Raluca Moscu, 2020. "CEO Diversity, Political Influences, and CEO Turnover in Unstable Environments: The Romanian Case," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
    4. Jollès, Maya & Meyermans, Eric & Vašíček, Bořek, 2023. "Determinants of macroeconomic resilience in the euro area: An empirical assessment of national policy levers," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(3).
    5. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Walid Mansour & Hechem Ajmi & Karima Saci, 2022. "Regulatory policies in the global Islamic banking sector in the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 265-287, September.
    7. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2023. "Changing the inflation target in emerging markets: the reward of reducing risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(3), pages 1453-1457.
    8. Shifu Jiang, 2022. "Optimal Credit, Monetary, and Fiscal Policy under Occasional Financial Frictions and the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 151-197, March.
    9. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2025. "Bank Capital Requirements, Lending Supply, and Economic Activity: A Scenario Analysis Perspective," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1132-1164, April.

  12. Ricco, Giovanni & ,, 2019. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Working Papers 2021-55, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2020. "Forward Guidance Matters: Disentangling Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Papers 912, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2019. "Same, but different? Testing monetary policy shock measures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    4. Känzig, Diego Raoul, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of oil supply news: Evidence from OPEC announcements," MPRA Paper 106249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2020. "Mind the gap! Stylized Dynamic Facts and Structural Models," Working Paper Series WP-2020-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Cloyne, James S. & Hürtgen, Patrick & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Global monetary and financial spillovers: Evidence from a new measure of Bundesbank policy shocks," Discussion Papers 34/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Adam Brzezinski & Yao Chen & Nuno Palma & Felix Ward, 2019. "The Vagaries of the Sea: Evidence on the Real Effects of Money from Maritime Disasters in the Spanish Empire," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1906, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised May 2022.
    8. Alejandro Vicondoa & Andrea Gazzani, 2020. "Bridge Proxy-SVAR: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Shocks Identified at High-Frequency," Documentos de Trabajo 533, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    9. Peter Ajonghakoh Foabeh & Vesarach Aumeboonsuke, 2024. "Resilience of Developing Economies to External Shocks: Empirical Evidence from CEMAC Countries," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(3), pages 1-81, May.
    10. Mirela Miescu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Proxy structural vector autoregressions, informational sufficiency and the role of monetary policy," Working Papers 280730188, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    11. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Financial Uncertainty Shocks: A Daily Identification Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 559, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    12. Luchelle Soobyah & Nicola Viegi, 2022. "CanNationalTreasurydocontractionarymonetarypolicy," Working Papers 11031, South African Reserve Bank.
    13. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoglu Hoke, Sinem, 2018. "When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90381, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of political risk shocks," Bank of England working papers 841, Bank of England.
    15. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem & Bluwstein, Kristina, 2020. "Patents, News, and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 15062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2020. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Working Papers 2020-16, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    17. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens, 2022. "Dynamic Identification Using System Projections on Instrumental Variables," Working Papers 2204, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 03 Jul 2024.
    18. Martínez-Hernández, Catalina, 2020. "Disentangling the effects of multidimensional monetary policy on inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2020/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    19. Laumer, Sebastian & Violaris, Andreas-Entony, 2024. "Unconventional monetary policy and policy foresight," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    20. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    21. Andrea Giovanni Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2019. "Proxy-SVAR as a Bridge for Identification with Higher Frequency Data," 2019 Meeting Papers 855, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2023. "Are the Effects of Uncertainty Shocks Big or Small?," Working Papers 244, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    23. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Stephen Wright & Bo Yang, 2023. "Imperfect Information and Hidden Dynamics," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1223, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

  13. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03403269, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2022. "Euro area stock markets integration: Empirical evidence after the end of 2010 debt crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    2. Ingrid-Mihaela Dragotă & Andreea Curmei-Semenescu & Raluca Moscu, 2020. "CEO Diversity, Political Influences, and CEO Turnover in Unstable Environments: The Romanian Case," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
    4. Jollès, Maya & Meyermans, Eric & Vašíček, Bořek, 2023. "Determinants of macroeconomic resilience in the euro area: An empirical assessment of national policy levers," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(3).
    5. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Walid Mansour & Hechem Ajmi & Karima Saci, 2022. "Regulatory policies in the global Islamic banking sector in the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 265-287, September.
    7. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2023. "Changing the inflation target in emerging markets: the reward of reducing risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(3), pages 1453-1457.
    8. Shifu Jiang, 2022. "Optimal Credit, Monetary, and Fiscal Policy under Occasional Financial Frictions and the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 151-197, March.
    9. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2025. "Bank Capital Requirements, Lending Supply, and Economic Activity: A Scenario Analysis Perspective," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1132-1164, April.

  14. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1213, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Working Papers 2021-55, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2020. "Forward Guidance Matters: Disentangling Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Papers 912, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2020. "Mind the gap! Stylized Dynamic Facts and Structural Models," Working Paper Series WP-2020-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Cloyne, James S. & Hürtgen, Patrick & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Global monetary and financial spillovers: Evidence from a new measure of Bundesbank policy shocks," Discussion Papers 34/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Peter Ajonghakoh Foabeh & Vesarach Aumeboonsuke, 2024. "Resilience of Developing Economies to External Shocks: Empirical Evidence from CEMAC Countries," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(3), pages 1-81, May.
    6. Mirela Miescu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Proxy structural vector autoregressions, informational sufficiency and the role of monetary policy," Working Papers 280730188, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    7. Luchelle Soobyah & Nicola Viegi, 2022. "CanNationalTreasurydocontractionarymonetarypolicy," Working Papers 11031, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2020. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Working Papers 2020-16, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    9. Martínez-Hernández, Catalina, 2020. "Disentangling the effects of multidimensional monetary policy on inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2020/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    10. Laumer, Sebastian & Violaris, Andreas-Entony, 2024. "Unconventional monetary policy and policy foresight," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    11. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

  15. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect information in macroeconomics," Post-Print hal-03458122, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.

  16. Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03458277, HAL.

    Cited by:

    1. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ilir Miteza & Altin Tanku & Ilir Vika, 2023. "Is the floating exchange rate a shock absorber in Albania? Evidence from SVAR models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1297-1326, April.
    3. Yuhan Cheng & Heyang Zhou & Yanchu Liu, 2025. "Large Language Models and Futures Price Factors in China," Papers 2509.23609, arXiv.org.
    4. Ahmed Ibrahim & Rasha Kashef & Menglu Li & Esteban Valencia & Eric Huang, 2020. "Bitcoin Network Mechanics: Forecasting the BTC Closing Price Using Vector Auto-Regression Models Based on Endogenous and Exogenous Feature Variables," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, August.
    5. Joseph Noss & Rupal Patel, 2019. "Decomposing changes in the functioning of the sterling repo market," Bank of England working papers 797, Bank of England.
    6. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Uquillas, Adriana & Tonato, Ronny, 2022. "Inter-portfolio credit risk contagion including macroeconomic and financial factors: A case study for Ecuador," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 299-320.
    8. Battulga Gankhuu, 2024. "EM Estimation of Conditional Matrix Variate $t$ Distributions," Papers 2406.10837, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    9. Lawson, Jeremy & Watt, Abigail & Martinez, Carolina & Fu, Rong, 2019. "Chinese Financial Conditions and their Spillovers to the Global Economy and Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Kunovac, Davor & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao, 2022. "A new optimum currency area index for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2730, European Central Bank.
    12. Demiessie, Habtamu, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic Uncertainty Shock Impact on Macroeconomic Stability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 102625, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Aug 2020.
    13. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Peñalver, Antonio & Perez-Bernabeu, Alberto, 2020. "The effects of monetary policy on income and wealth inequality in the U.S. Exploring different channels," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-106.

  17. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 756, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ilir Miteza & Altin Tanku & Ilir Vika, 2023. "Is the floating exchange rate a shock absorber in Albania? Evidence from SVAR models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1297-1326, April.
    3. Yuhan Cheng & Heyang Zhou & Yanchu Liu, 2025. "Large Language Models and Futures Price Factors in China," Papers 2509.23609, arXiv.org.
    4. Ahmed Ibrahim & Rasha Kashef & Menglu Li & Esteban Valencia & Eric Huang, 2020. "Bitcoin Network Mechanics: Forecasting the BTC Closing Price Using Vector Auto-Regression Models Based on Endogenous and Exogenous Feature Variables," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, August.
    5. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Uquillas, Adriana & Tonato, Ronny, 2022. "Inter-portfolio credit risk contagion including macroeconomic and financial factors: A case study for Ecuador," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 299-320.
    7. Battulga Gankhuu, 2024. "EM Estimation of Conditional Matrix Variate $t$ Distributions," Papers 2406.10837, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    8. Lawson, Jeremy & Watt, Abigail & Martinez, Carolina & Fu, Rong, 2019. "Chinese Financial Conditions and their Spillovers to the Global Economy and Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Kunovac, Davor & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao, 2022. "A new optimum currency area index for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2730, European Central Bank.
    11. Demiessie, Habtamu, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic Uncertainty Shock Impact on Macroeconomic Stability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 102625, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Aug 2020.
    12. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Peñalver, Antonio & Perez-Bernabeu, Alberto, 2020. "The effects of monetary policy on income and wealth inequality in the U.S. Exploring different channels," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-106.

  18. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Caruso, Alberto & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Financial and Fiscal Interaction in the Euro Area Crisis: This Time was Different," CEPR Discussion Papers 13016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2022. "Euro area stock markets integration: Empirical evidence after the end of 2010 debt crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    2. Ingrid-Mihaela Dragotă & Andreea Curmei-Semenescu & Raluca Moscu, 2020. "CEO Diversity, Political Influences, and CEO Turnover in Unstable Environments: The Romanian Case," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
    4. Jollès, Maya & Meyermans, Eric & Vašíček, Bořek, 2023. "Determinants of macroeconomic resilience in the euro area: An empirical assessment of national policy levers," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(3).
    5. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Walid Mansour & Hechem Ajmi & Karima Saci, 2022. "Regulatory policies in the global Islamic banking sector in the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 265-287, September.
    7. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2023. "Changing the inflation target in emerging markets: the reward of reducing risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(3), pages 1453-1457.
    8. Shifu Jiang, 2022. "Optimal Credit, Monetary, and Fiscal Policy under Occasional Financial Frictions and the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 151-197, March.
    9. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2025. "Bank Capital Requirements, Lending Supply, and Economic Activity: A Scenario Analysis Perspective," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1132-1164, April.

  19. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Callegari, Giovanni & Ricco, Giovanni, 2016. "Signals from the government: policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Working Paper Series 1964, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect information in macroeconomics," Post-Print hal-03458122, HAL.
    3. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    4. Jan Philipp Fritsche & Mathias Klein & Malte Rieth, 2020. "Government Spending Multipliers in (Un)certain Times," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1901, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "U.S. Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working Papers 201742, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2019. "What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 78-93, March.
    9. Goemans, Pascal, 2020. "Government Spending in Uncertain and Slack Times: Historical Evidence for Larger Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224642, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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    11. Latifi, Albina & Naboka-Krell, Viktoriia & Tillmann, Peter & Winker, Peter, 2024. "Fiscal policy in the Bundestag: Textual analysis and macroeconomic effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Pascal Goemans, 2022. "Historical evidence for larger government spending multipliers in uncertain times than in slumps," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1164-1185, July.
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    14. Latifi, Albina & Naboka-Krell, Viktoriia & Tillmann, Peter & Winker, Peter, 2025. "Disagreement about Fiscal Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325368, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Kim, Wongi, 2019. "Government spending policy uncertainty and economic activity: US time series evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
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    17. Lin, Jianhao & Mei, Ziwei & Chen, Liangyuan & Zhu, Chuanqi, 2023. "Is the People's Bank of China consistent in words and deeds?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
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    19. Aaron J. Amburgey, 2025. "How Election Shocks Impact Markets: Evidence from Sectoral Stock Prices," Papers 2504.02731, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    20. Vania Esady, 2022. "Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement," Bank of England working papers 1007, Bank of England.
    21. Amélie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Thierry BETTI & Théo METZ, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers, public debt anchor and government credibility in a behavioural macroeconomic model," Working Papers of BETA 2023-14, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    22. End, Nicolas, 2023. "Big Brother is also being watched: Measuring fiscal credibility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    23. Szymańska, Agata, . "Wpływ polityki fiskalnej na PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej spoza strefy euro," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2018(3).
    24. Goodness C. Aye, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity in South Africa: An Asymmetric Analysis," Working Papers 201922, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Luna, Paulo Henrique, 2018. "Discretionary fiscal policy and disagreement in expectations about fiscal variables empirical evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 100-116.
    26. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    27. Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(3), pages 660-698, August.
    28. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1213, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    29. Ascari, Guido & Beck-Friis, Peder & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2023. "Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-15.
    30. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2019. "Expectation shocks and fiscal rules," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 357-377, April.
    31. Fabio Bertolotti & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2019. "Tax shocks with high and low uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 972-993, September.
    32. Hantzsche, Arno, 2022. "Fiscal uncertainty and sovereign credit risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    33. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the US: A Journey into Non-Linear Territory," Economics Working Papers 2020-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    34. Melosi, Leonardo & Morita, Hiroshi & Rogantini Picco, Anna & Zanetti, Francesco, 2025. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Working Paper Series 455, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    35. Carlos Mauro Cárdenas Cardona & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2020. "La comunicación fiscal y sus efectos sobre los retornos de los títulos públicos: una aproximación empírica para el caso colombiano," Ensayos de Economía 18309, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    36. Jerow, Sam & Wolff, Jonathan, 2022. "Fiscal policy and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    37. Lien, Donald & Sun, Yuchen & Zhang, Chengsi, 2021. "Uncertainty, confidence, and monetary policy in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1347-1358.
    38. Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Cristina Isabel Ramos-Barroso, 2022. "The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 215-238, November.
    39. Ricco, Giovanni & ,, 2019. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Goemans, Pascal & Belke, Ansgar, 2019. "Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: A SEIVAR-based analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203538, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    41. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    42. Daniela Fantozzi & Alessio Muscarnera, 2021. "A News-based Policy Index for Italy: Expectations and Fiscal Policy," CEIS Research Paper 509, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Mar 2021.
    43. Goemans, Pascal, 2023. "The impact of public consumption and investment in the euro area during periods of high and normal uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    44. Pascal Goemans & Robinson Kruse‐Becher, 2025. "Time‐Varying US Government Spending Anticipation in Real Time," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 867-880, April.
    45. Antonecchia, Gianluca, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations, forecast accuracy and firms’ credit demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    46. Joep Lustenhouwer & Kostas Mavromatis, 2025. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy When Planning Horizons are Finite," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(2-3), pages 549-582, March.
    47. Kang, Jihye & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Government spending news and surprise shocks: It’s the timing and persistence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    48. Gallegos, José-Elías & García-Miralles, Esteban & Kataryniuk, Ivan & Parraga Rodriguez, Susana, 2025. "Fiscal announcements and households’ beliefs: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 3139, European Central Bank.
    49. Belke, Ansgar & Goemans, Pascal, 2019. "Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: A SEIVAR-based analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 826, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    50. Asif Tariq & Aadil Amin & Masroor Ahmad, 2024. "Deciphering the non-linear nexus between government size and inflation in MENA countries: an application of dynamic-panel threshold model," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, December.
    51. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    52. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(1), pages 70-86, March.
    53. Yangyang Fan & Liangdong Lu & Jia Xu & Fenge Wang & Fei Wang, 2022. "Air Pollution Control and Public Health Risk Perception: Evidence from the Perspectives of Signal and Implementation Effects," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-15, March.
    54. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna, 2022. "Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presidential impeachment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2356-2393, November.
    55. NAM, Deokwoo & LI, Xiaole, 2024. "The Stimulative Effects of Anticipated Government Spending Expansions : Evidence from Survey Forecasts," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 65(1), pages 1-31, June.
    56. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

  20. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2015. "The Legacy Debt and the Joint Path of Public Deficit and Debt in the Euro Area," European Economy - Discussion Papers 010, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2017-40, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. De Luca, Roberto & Di Mauro, Marco & Falzarano, Angelo & Naddeo, Adele, 2017. "The effect of the behavior of an average consumer on the public debt dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 357-361.

  21. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect information in macroeconomics," Post-Print hal-03458122, HAL.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "U.S. Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working Papers 201742, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Guido Ascari & Peder Beck-Friis & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2021. "Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix," Discussion Papers 2112, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Valentina Colombo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News from a Nonlinear World," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n26, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03459227, HAL.
    6. Emilio Colombo & Davide Furceri & Pietro Pizzuto & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Informality," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2201, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    7. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2016. "Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 107-118.
    8. Luisa Corrado & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2018. "Assessing the Effects of Fiscal Policy News under Imperfect Information: Evidence from Aggregate and Individual Data," CEIS Research Paper 447, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 06 Nov 2018.
    9. Jonathan J Adams & Philip Barrett, 2023. "Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts," Working Papers 001010, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    10. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Does Monetary Policy generate Asset Price Bubbles?," Working Papers 2017-06, CRESE.
    11. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy and the anchoring of inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 1995, European Central Bank.
    12. Ellahie, Atif & Ricco, Giovanni, "undated". "Government Purchases Reloaded : Informational Insufficiency and Heterogeneity in Fiscal VARs," Economic Research Papers 269308, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    13. Davide Furceri & Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2018. "Twin Deficits in Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/170, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2017. "Do Misperceptions about Demand Matter? Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 17.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    16. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, "undated". "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Economic Research Papers 269310, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    17. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "Monetray policy and asset price bubbles," Working Papers hal-03471562, HAL.
    18. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2021. "Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications," Post-Print hal-03173423, HAL.
    19. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2019. "Expectation shocks and fiscal rules," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 357-377, April.
    20. Luchelle Soobyah & Nicola Viegi, 2022. "CanNationalTreasurydocontractionarymonetarypolicy," Working Papers 11031, South African Reserve Bank.
    21. Carlos Mauro Cárdenas Cardona & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2020. "La comunicación fiscal y sus efectos sobre los retornos de los títulos públicos: una aproximación empírica para el caso colombiano," Ensayos de Economía 18309, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    22. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Government Spending Shocks in Open Economy VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 10115, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Davide Furceri & Jun Ge & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Giovanni Melina, 2018. "The Distributional Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/057, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Colombo, Emilio & Furceri, Davide & Pizzuto, Pietro & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2024. "Public expenditure multipliers and informality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).

  22. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Delrio, 2016. "Estimating the effects of global uncertainty in open economies," Working Papers 2016:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2019. "Expectation shocks and fiscal rules," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 357-377, April.
    3. D. A. Petrova, 2025. "Assessing Economic Policy Uncertainty Using Search Queries," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 26-39, October.

  23. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2016. "Government spending shocks in open economy VARs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 68-84.
    2. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
    3. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

  24. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, "undated". "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Economic Research Papers 269310, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Snezana Eminidou & Marios Zachariadis, 2019. "Firms’ Expectations and Monetary Policy Shocks in the Eurozone," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 02-2019, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    2. Fergus Cumming & Paul Hubert, 2019. "The role of households' borrowing constraints in the transmission of monetary policy," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03403257, HAL.
    3. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect information in macroeconomics," Post-Print hal-03458122, HAL.
    4. Massimo Guidolin, Serena Ionta, 2026. "Uncertain Climate Policy as a Source of Macro-Financial Shocks: Evidence from Carbon Futures Volatility," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 26262, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Reinelt, Timo & Meier, Matthias, 2020. "Monetary policy, markup dispersion, and aggregate TFP," Working Paper Series 2427, European Central Bank.
    6. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2018. "Does a big bazooka matter? Central bank balance-sheet policies and exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2197, European Central Bank.
    7. Federico Di Pace & Christoph Gortz, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Sectoral Comovement and the Credit Channel," Discussion Papers 21-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    8. Masahiro Tanaka, 2020. "Bayesian Inference of Local Projections with Roughness Penalty Priors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 629-651, February.
    9. Luisa Corrado & Daniela Fantozzi & Simona Giglioli, 2022. "Real-time inequalities and policies during the pandemic in the US," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1396, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    11. Romain Baeriswyl & Alex Oktay & Marc-Antoine Ramelet, 2023. "Exchange rate shocks and equity prices: the role of currency denomination," Working Papers 2023-05, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Bianco, Timothy, 2021. "Monetary policy and credit flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    13. Mr. Pragyan Deb & Julia Estefania-Flores & Melih Firat & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari, 2023. "Monetary Policy Transmission Heterogeneity: Cross-Country Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2023/204, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2024. "The bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission in South Africa," Working Papers 11072, South African Reserve Bank.
    15. Riccardo Degasperi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2024. "US monetary policy spillovers to the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 891, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Yoosoon Chang & Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez & Mr. Gee Hee Hong, 2022. "The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2022/132, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Giacomo Mangiante & Pascal Meichtry, 2025. "On the Distributional Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy and Forward Guidance," Working papers 996, Banque de France.
    19. Odendahl, Florens & Pagliari, Maria Sole & Penalver, Adrian & Rossi, Barbara & Sestieri, Giulia, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy effects. Does the shape of the yield curve matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    20. Alsalman, Zeina & Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "Oil news shocks and the U.S. stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    21. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Schlaak, Thore, 2021. "Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242399, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Asymmetric Business Cycles In Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 1909, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    23. Quineche, Ricardo & Zapata, Juan, 2025. "Inflationary and Deflationary Pressures: A Directional Decomposition of U.S. Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 125485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    25. Luisa Corrado & Daniela Fantozzi, 2021. "Micro level data for macro models: the distributional effects of monetary policy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 529, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    26. Germano Ruisi, 2019. "Time-Varying Local Projections," Working Papers 891, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    27. Xu, Xiangyun & Li, Xing & Meng, Jie & Hu, Xueqi & Ge, Yingfan, 2024. "The impact of the tail risk of demand on corporate investment: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    28. Philippe Andrade & Filippo Ferroni, 2018. "Delphic and Odyssean Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Paper Series WP-2018-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    29. Pablo Aguilar Perez, 2024. "Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    30. Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2025. "Quantitative easing, uncertainty, and risk aversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    31. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Disentangling the Effects of Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks on the Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1029-1065, October.
    32. Hartwig, Benny & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2020. "Monetary policy, firm exit and productivity," Discussion Papers 61/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    33. Sebastian K. Rüth & Wouter Van der Veken, 2023. "Monetary policy and exchange rate anomalies in set‐identified SVARs: Revisited," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1085-1092, November.
    34. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2018. "Spillovers from US monetary policy: Evidence from a time-varying parameter GVAR model," Working Papers in Economics 2018-6, University of Salzburg.
    35. Wang, Li-Hui & Li, Fu-An, 2024. "Regulatory Effects of the Combinations of Aggregate and Structural Monetary Policy Instruments: an application of New Keynesian DSGE model to China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1120-1143.
    36. Mustafa Kocoglu & Ferit Kula, 2025. "Testing the equilibrium path of exchange rates, monetary policy, and trade balance in the Türkiye," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-25, June.
    37. Forni, Mario & Debortoli, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy Easing and Tightening," CEPR Discussion Papers 15005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. Yun Liu, 2022. "Housing and monetary policy: Fresh evidence from China," Financial Economics Letters, Anser Press, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, December.
    39. Enzinger, Matthias & Gechert, Sebastian & Heimberger, Philipp & Prante, Franz & Romero, Daniel Fernández, 2025. "The overstated effects of conventional monetary policy on output and prices," OSF Preprints 72cen_v2, Center for Open Science.
    40. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2018. "The Missing Link: Monetary policy and the labor share," Discussion Papers 1829, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    41. Benjamin Beckers, 2020. "Credit Spreads, Monetary Policy and the Price Puzzle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    42. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
    43. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy R., 2023. "Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world," Working Paper Series 2879, European Central Bank.
    44. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Jin, Keyu, 2021. "The puzzling change in the international transmission of U.S. macroeconomic policy shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    45. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2024. "State-dependent local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
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    336. Dimitris Christopoulos & Peter McAdam & Elias Tzavalis, 2023. "Threshold Endogeneity in Threshold VARs: An Application to Monetary State Dependence," Research Working Paper RWP 23-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    337. Filippo Natoli, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of temperature surprise shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1407, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    338. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Vukotic, Marija, 2019. "Patent-Based News Shocks," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1225, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    339. Paul Rudel & Peter Tillmann, 2018. "News Shock Spillovers: How the Euro Area Responds to Expected Fed Policy," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201832, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

  25. Hasenzagl, Thomas & Pellegrino, Filippo & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, "undated". "A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation," Economic Research Papers 269087, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Hahn, Elke & Zekaite, Zivile & de Bondt, Gabe, 2018. "ALICE: A new inflation monitoring tool," Working Paper Series 2175, European Central Bank.
    2. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global trends in interest rates," Staff Reports 866, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 199-255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris A. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu O. & Ohemeng, William, 2020. "The heterogeneous behaviour of the inflation hedging property of cocoa," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Mohammad Asif & Vishal Sharma & Vinay Joshi Chandniwala & Parvez Alam Khan & Syed Mohd Muneeb, 2023. "Modelling the Dynamic Linkage Amidst Energy Prices and Twin Deficit in India: Empirical Investigation within Linear and Nonlinear Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-23, March.
    7. Jonathan Adams & Philip Barrett, 2024. "Shocks to Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    8. Seip, Knut L. & Zhang, Dan, 2025. "A tale of the two recessions 2008 and 2020: What do the Taylor rule, the Phillips curve and Okun's law tell?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 681-701.
    9. Raïsa Basselier & David de Antonio Liedo & Jana Jonckheere & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Can inflation expectations in business or consumer surveys improve inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Research 348, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 867-881, August.
    11. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2018 - Stärker differenzierte Weltkonjunktur: Gegenwind für die Schwellenländer [World Economy Autumn 2018 - Less even growth in the world economy with significant downside," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 45, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    12. Kristin Forbes, 2019. "Has globalization changed the inflation process?," BIS Working Papers 791, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Li, Mengheng & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2024. "Dynamic hysteresis effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

  26. Ellahie, Atif & Ricco, Giovanni, "undated". "Government Purchases Reloaded : Informational Insufficiency and Heterogeneity in Fiscal VARs," Economic Research Papers 269308, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "U.S. Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working Papers 201742, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Guido Ascari & Peder Beck-Friis & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2021. "Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix," Discussion Papers 2112, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2019. "What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 78-93, March.
    6. Latifi, Albina & Naboka-Krell, Viktoriia & Tillmann, Peter & Winker, Peter, 2024. "Fiscal policy in the Bundestag: Textual analysis and macroeconomic effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Bonam, Dennis & De Haan, Jakob & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2022. "The Effects Of Fiscal Policy At The Effective Lower Bound," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 149-185, January.
    8. Lee, Eun Kyung & Park, Kwangyong, 2021. "Identifying government spending shocks and multipliers in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Matthieu Bordenave & Giovanna Ciaffi, 2025. "Measuring Green Fiscal Multipliers: Heterogeneity in European Countries," FMM Working Paper 121-2025, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Hervé Alexandre & François Guillemin & Catherine Refait-Alexandre, 2015. "Downgrades of sovereign credit ratings and impact on banks CDS spread: does disclosure by banks improve stability?," Post-Print hal-01622782, HAL.
    12. Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "125 Years of Time-Varying Effects of Fiscal Policy on Financial Markets," Working papers 2020-12, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    13. Thomas Gemert & Lenard Lieb & Tania Treibich, 2022. "Local fiscal multipliers of different government spending categories," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2551-2575, November.
    14. Laumer, Sebastian, 2020. "Government spending and heterogeneous consumption dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    15. Cubadda, Gianluca & Grassi, Stefano & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2025. "The time-varying Multivariate Autoregressive Index model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 175-190.
    16. Byung Ho Lee & Kwangyong Park, 2023. "External Information and Fiscal Multipliers," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 39, pages 347-379.
    17. Joshua Chan & Christian Matthes & Xuewen Yu, 2025. "Large Structural VARs with Multiple Sign and Ranking Restrictions," Papers 2503.20668, arXiv.org.
    18. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
    19. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    20. Takumah, Wisdom, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices in a Dynamic Factor Model with Cointegrated Factors," MPRA Paper 117897, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jul 2023.
    21. Beau Soederhuizen & Rutger Teulings & Rob Luginbuhl, 2023. "Estimating the impact of the financial cycle on fiscal policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2669-2709, December.
    22. Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis," Papers 2207.03988, arXiv.org.
    23. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    24. Laumer, Sebastian & Violaris, Andreas-Entony, 2024. "Unconventional monetary policy and policy foresight," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    25. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    26. Kanazawa, Nobuyuki, 2021. "Public investment multipliers: Evidence from stock returns of the road pavement industry in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    27. Romano, Simone, 2018. "Fiscal foresight: Do expectations have cross-border effects?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 71-82.
    28. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen, 2020. "125 ​Years of time-varying effects of fiscal policy on financial markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 303-320.
    29. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    30. NAM, Deokwoo & LI, Xiaole, 2024. "The Stimulative Effects of Anticipated Government Spending Expansions : Evidence from Survey Forecasts," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 65(1), pages 1-31, June.

Articles

  1. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Giovanni Ricco & Nicola Viegi, 2024. "Trouble Every Day: Monetary Policy in an Open Emerging Economy," ERSA Working Paper Series, Economic Research Southern Africa, vol. 0.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Tarbé, Matthieu, 2023. "Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2023. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-19.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 74-107, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Mikkel Plagborg-Moller & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Thomas Hasenzagl, 2020. "When Is Growth at Risk?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 167-229.

    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Qifa & Xu, Mengnan & Jiang, Cuixia & Fu, Weizhong, 2023. "Mixed-frequency Growth-at-Risk with the MIDAS-QR method: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    2. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    3. Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2024. "Reprint of: Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage: An application to Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    4. Sui, Jianli & Lv, Wenqiang & Gao, Xiang & Koedijk, Kees G., 2024. "China’s GDP-at-Risk: Real-Time Monitoring, Risk Tracing, and Macroeconomic Policy Effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
    6. Wenbo Jia & Hao Jiang & Yiqing Lyv & Stavros Sindakis, 2025. "Uncertainty’s Effect on China’s Knowledge-Based Economy: Transformation Beyond Trade," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 4684-4725, March.
    7. Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2023. "Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage an application to Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    8. Korobilis, Dimitris & Schröder, Maximilian, 2025. "Monitoring multi-country macroeconomic risk: A quantile factor-augmented vector autoregressive (QFAVAR) approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    9. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    10. Huang, Yu-Fan & Liao, Wenting & Wang, Taining, 2024. "Does US financial uncertainty spill over through the (asymmetric) international credit channel? The role of market expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    11. Hongqi Chen & Ji Hyung Lee, 2024. "Predictive Quantile Regression with High-Dimensional Predictors: The Variable Screening Approach," Papers 2410.15097, arXiv.org.
    12. Yao, Shouyu & Liu, Zezhong & Wang, Chunfeng & Palma, Alessia & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Is macroeconomic tail risk contagious to stock idiosyncratic risk?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schroder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Papers 2305.09563, arXiv.org.
    14. Yannick Hoga & Christian Schulz, 2025. "Self-Normalized Inference in (Quantile, Expected Shortfall) Regressions for Time Series," Papers 2502.10065, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    15. Hie Joo Ahn & Lam Nguyen, 2025. "Who's at Risk? Effects of Inflation on Unemployment Risk," Papers 2505.05757, arXiv.org.
    16. Liu, Han & Wang, Lijun & Zhuo, Xingxuan, 2025. "Unveiling the shadows: The effects of financial conditions on the tail risks of China's macroeconomic activities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-14.
    17. Beutel, Johannes & Emter, Lorenz & Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban & Schüler, Yves, 2025. "The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    18. Botelho, Vasco & Foroni, Claudia & Renzetti, Andrea, 2024. "Labour at risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    19. Zheng, Tingguo & Gong, Lu & Ye, Shiqi, 2023. "Global energy market connectedness and inflation at risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    20. Suarez, Javier, 2021. "Growth-at-risk and macroprudential policy design JEL Classification: G01, G20, G28," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 19, European Systemic Risk Board.
    21. Gloria González‐Rivera & C. Vladimir Rodríguez‐Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 926-942, August.
    22. Tobias Adrian & Hongqi Chen & Max-Sebastian Dov`i & Ji Hyung Lee, 2025. "Machine-learning Growth at Risk," Papers 2506.00572, arXiv.org.
    23. Moffo, Ahmadou Mustapha Fonton, 2024. "A machine learning approach in stress testing US bank holding companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
    24. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Vulnerable funding in the global economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    25. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1460-1476.
    26. Ian Dew-Becker, 2024. "Real-time forward-looking skewness over the business cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    27. Ana B. Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2020. "Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data," Working Papers 2020-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2022.
    28. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò & Sala, Luca, 2024. "The effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    29. Busetti, Fabio & Caivano, Michele & Delle Monache, Davide & Pacella, Claudia, 2021. "The time-varying risk of Italian GDP," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    30. Sokol, Andrej, 2025. "Fan charts 2.0: Flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 1148-1164.
    31. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Growth at risk from climate change," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1134-1151, July.

  7. Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki Simon Hong & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S Monetary Policy," ERSA Working Paper Series, Economic Research Southern Africa, vol. 0.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect Information in Macroeconomics," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 181-196.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Ellahie, Atif & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "Government purchases reloaded: Informational insufficiency and heterogeneity in fiscal VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 13-27.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2016. "Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 107-118.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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