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Trouble Every Day: Monetary Policy in an Open Emerging Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Ekaterina Pirozhkova

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

  • Giovanni Ricco

    (CREST, Ecole Polytechnique, 5 Av. Le Chatelier, 91120 Palaiseau, France)

  • Nicola Viegi

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

Abstract

Four factors drive the high-frequency impact of monetary policy announcements in South Africa: affecting short-, mid-, and long-term yield curve, as well as country risk. Controlling for information effects, we build IVs to study the transmission of conventional monetary policy, forward guidance, term premia, country risk and information shocks. Our findings reveal textbook contractionary effects of conventional monetary policy. Policy communication, particularly forward guidance, has persistent effects on output and prices. Country risk is a novel and powerful channel of monetary policy communication in emerging markets. By defending its independence, re-stating its inflation target objective, and addressing external shocks, the central bank can mitigate country risk and generate strong expansionary effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Giovanni Ricco & Nicola Viegi, 2024. "Trouble Every Day: Monetary Policy in an Open Emerging Economy," Working Papers 202442, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202442
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    2. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
    3. Kurt G. Lunsford, 2020. "Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2899-2934, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Sekkel & Henry Stern & Xu Zhang, 2025. "Money Talks: How Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy Communications Move Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 25-33, Bank of Canada.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2025. "Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 163, February.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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