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Evan F. Koenig

Citations

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Evan F. Koenig, 2011. "Monetary policy, financial stability, and the distribution of risk," Working Papers 1111, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Mentioned in:

    1. NGDP Targeting: Some Questions
      by David Andolfatto in MacroMania on 2012-04-28 02:35:00
    2. "NGDP Targeting: Some Questions"
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2012-04-27 20:14:19
    3. "NGDP Targeting: Some Questions"
      by Economists View in FavStocks on 2012-04-28 12:25:22
  2. Evan F. Koenig, 2013. "Like a Good Neighbor: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Distribution of Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 57-82, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. John Williams on bubbles and monetary policy
      by Mainly Macro in Mainly Macro on 2014-06-13 02:50:00
  3. Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), 2012. "The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy," Books, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, number 4, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Qualifying for the Fed
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-04-15 12:01:03

Working papers

  1. Tyler Atkinson & Jim Dolmas & Christoffer Koch & Evan F. Koenig & Karel Mertens & Anthony Murphy & Kei-Mu Yi, 2020. "Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak," Working Papers 2014, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Sitian Liu & Yichen Su, 2020. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Demand for Density: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Working Papers 2024, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 23 Oct 2020.
    2. Daniel Aaronson & Scott A. Brave & Michael Fogarty & Ezra Karger & Spencer D. Krane, 2021. "Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade," Working Paper Series WP-2021-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 18 Jun 2021.
    3. Paul Ho & Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes, 2020. "How To Go Viral: A COVID-19 Model with Endogenously Time-Varying Parameters," Working Paper 20-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    4. Peter Fuleky, 2020. "Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery," Working Papers 202022, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    5. Constantin Bürgi & Nisan Gorgulu, 2020. "Social Distancing and the Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 8577, CESifo.
    6. Xinba Li & Chuanrong Zhang, 2021. "Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Affect Housing Prices Evenly in the U.S.?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-28, November.
    7. Brave, Scott A. & Butters, R. Andrew & Fogarty, Michael, 2022. "The perils of working with big data, and a SMALL checklist you can use to recognize them," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 65(4), pages 481-492.
    8. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2020. "High Frequency Data and a Weekly Economic Index during the Pandemic," Staff Reports 954, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  2. Jim Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig, 2019. "Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison," Working Papers 1903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," CESifo Working Paper Series 9455, CESifo.
    2. Zhiyong Fan & Yushan Hu & Penglong Zhang, 2022. "Measuring China's core inflation for forecasting purposes: taking persistence as weight," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 93-111, July.
    3. Ball, Laurence & Carvalho, Carlos & Evans, Christopher & Antonio Ricci, Luca, 2024. "Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Laurence M. Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prachi Mishra, 2022. "Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era," NBER Working Papers 30613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2023. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 157, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    6. Laurence M. Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prachi Mishra & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2021. "Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Fornero, Jorge & Sansone, Andrés, 2023. "A proposal for constructing and evaluating core inflation measures," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    8. Guillermo Carlomagno & Jorge Fornero & Andrés Sansone, 2021. "Toward a general framework for constructing and evaluating core inflation measures," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 913, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Yogeshwar Bharat & Rajeswari Sengupta & Gautham Udupa, 2025. "Is core inflation useful in predicting headline inflation? Evidence from a large, emerging economy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2025-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

  3. Evan F. Koenig, 2011. "Monetary policy, financial stability, and the distribution of risk," Working Papers 1111, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Eagle, David M. & Christensen, Lars, 2012. "Two Equations on the Pareto-Efficient Sharing of Real GDP Risk," MPRA Paper 41051, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Alfred Duncan & Charles Nolan, 2015. "Objectives and Challenges of Macroprudential Policy," Working Papers 2015_22, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Alfred Duncan & Charles Nolan, 2020. "Reform of the UK Financial Policy Committee," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(1), pages 1-30, February.

  4. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization Institute Working Papers 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Dibiasi & Samad Sarferaz, 2020. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: The Labor Channel of Uncertainty from a Cross-Country Perspective," Papers 2006.09007, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    2. Aguirre, Idoia & Vázquez, Jesús, 2018. "Inflation monitoring in real time: A comparative analysis of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 200-209.
    3. Ince, Onur & Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2016. "Taylor rule deviations and out-of-sample exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 22-44.
    4. Ronald Indergand & Stefan Leist, 2014. "A Real-Time Data Set for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(IV), pages 331-352, December.
    5. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    6. Severin Bernhard, 2016. "A real-time GDP data set for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2016-09, Swiss National Bank.
    7. Dmitry Gornostaev & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergei Seleznev & Alexandra Sterkhova, 2021. "A Real-Time Historical Database of Macroeconomic Indicators for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps76, Bank of Russia.
    8. Steven P. Cassou & C. Patrick Scott & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy revisited: does considering US real-time data change things?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6203-6219, December.
    9. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-52, Bank of Canada.
    10. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
    11. Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Five Years of Research on Globalization and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 2-17.
    12. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
    13. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    14. Marek RUSNAK, 2013. "Revisions to the Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 244-261, July.

  5. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2010. "Yield spreads as predictors of economic activity: a real-time VAR analysis," Working Papers 1008, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.

  6. Benjamin D. Keen & Evan F. Koenig, 2009. "How robust are popular models of nominal frictions?," Working Papers 0903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Lance J Bachmeier & Benjamin D Keen, 2023. "Modeling the Asymmetric Effects of an Oil Price Shock," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 1-47, August.

  7. Evan F. Koenig, 2008. "Keynesian economics without the LM and IS curves: a dynamic generalization of the Taylor-Romer model," Working Papers 0813, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Rodríguez Arana, 2014. "The relationship between the variance of inflation and the variance of output under different types of monetary policy," Working Papers 0814, Universidad Iberoamericana, Department of Economics.

  8. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2005. "VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision," Working Papers 0501, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2014. "Missing Variation in the Great Moderation: Lack of Signal Error and OLS Regression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Lee, Kevin & Olekalns, Nils & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available," CEPR Discussion Papers 7426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest rates," MPRA Paper 3425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2007.
    4. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Robust Approaches to Forecasting," Economics Series Working Papers 697, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Peter A. Zadrozny, 2016. "Real-Time State Space Method for Computing Smoothed Estimates of Future Revisions of U.S. Monthly Chained CPI," CESifo Working Paper Series 5897, CESifo.
    6. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Mise, Emi & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-102.
    7. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2011. "Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
    9. Alain Hecq & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2016. "Testing for News and Noise in Non-Stationary Time Series Subject to Multiple Historical Revisions," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-01, CIRANO.
    10. Richard G. Anderson & Charles S. Gascon, 2009. "Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 349-370.
    11. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Forecasting Data Vintages," Working Papers 2012-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    12. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jan), pages 81-93.
    13. Michael P Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2017. "Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    14. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307, April.
    15. George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2010. "Estimating time variation in measurement error from data revisions: an application to backcasting and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 869-893.
    16. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Aron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2007. "Some Benefits of Monetary-Policy Transparency in New Zealand," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 521-539, December.
    18. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan & Tian, Jing & Norden, Simon van, 2012. "On trend-cycle decomposition and data revision," Research Report 12009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    19. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "A real-time analysis of the Swiss trade account," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 167, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    20. Dean Croushore & Keith Sill, 2014. "Analyzing data revisions with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Working Papers 14-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    21. Cláudia Duarte & Fátima Cardoso, 2009. "Data Revisions: The Case of Portuguese Exports and Imports," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    22. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307.
    23. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    24. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
    25. Simionescu Mihaela, 2015. "Kalman Filter or VAR Models to Predict Unemployment Rate in Romania?," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 61(3), pages 3-21, June.
    26. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    27. Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "An econometric specification of monetary policy dark art," MPRA Paper 1004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2006.
    28. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2010. "Evaluating the effect of monetary policy on unemployment with alternative inflation forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 237-253, January.
    29. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Assessing Macro Uncertainty In Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2015-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    30. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Samad Sarferaz & Simon van Norden & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2013. "Modeling Multivariate Data Revisions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-44, CIRANO.
    31. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    32. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2016. "The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting," Working Papers 1613, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    33. Mihaela Simionescu & Mirela Niculae, 2015. "Modelling and Predicting the Fiscal Pressure Indicator in the European Union," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 1(1), pages 35-44, March.

  9. Evan F. Koenig, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in economies with \"sticky-information\" wages," Working Papers 0405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2006. "Inflation dynamics: a cross-country investigation," Working Papers 2005-076, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. William A. Branch & John B. Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary policy, endogenous inattention, and the volatility trade-off," Working Papers (Old Series) 0411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2010. "Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply," Scholarly Articles 33907956, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 16095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  10. Evan F. Koenig, 2001. "What goes down must come up: understanding time-variation in the NAIRU," Working Papers 0101, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  11. Sheila Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig & Jeremy M. Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of \"real-time\" data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 0004, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2014. "Missing Variation in the Great Moderation: Lack of Signal Error and OLS Regression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    3. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    4. Adam J. Check & Anna K Nolan & Tyler C. Schipper, 2019. "Forecasting GDP Growth using Disaggregated GDP Revisions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2580-2588.
    5. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    6. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lee, Kevin & Olekalns, Nils & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available," CEPR Discussion Papers 7426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Nikoleta Anesti & Ana Galvão & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2018. "Uncertain Kingdom: nowcasting GDP and its revisions," Bank of England working papers 764, Bank of England.
    9. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
    10. Jiang, Yu & Guo, Yongji & Zhang, Yihao, 2017. "Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 132-138.
    11. Nicholas Taylor, 2014. "Economic forecast quality: information timeliness and data vintage effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 145-174, February.
    12. Andrew C. Chang & Phillip Li, 2015. "Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Parigi, Giuseppe & Golinelli, Roberto, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Evan F. Koenig, 2002. "Using the Purchasing Managers' Index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 1(6).
    15. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
    16. Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2012. "U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials," CEPR Discussion Papers 8828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Mise, Emi & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-102.
    18. Gonçalves, Sílvia & McCracken, Michael W. & Yao, Yongxu, 2025. "Bootstrapping out-of-sample predictability tests with real-time data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    19. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2002. "Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(May), pages 15-28.
    20. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Mit Zeitungen Konjunkturprognosen erstellen: Eine Vergleichsstudie für die Schweiz und Deutschland," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 7(3), pages 104-117, September.
    21. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00505165, HAL.
    22. Kamada, Koichiro, 2005. "Real-time estimation of the output gap in Japan and its usefulness for inflation forecasting and policymaking," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-332, December.
    23. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 563-567, December.
    24. Matthieu Verstraete & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 17-24, Bank of Canada.
    25. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
    26. Menzie D. Chinn & Kavan J. Kucko, 2010. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time," NBER Working Papers 16398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Heinisch, Katja, 2016. "A real-time analysis on the importance of hard and soft data for nowcasting German GDP," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145864, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    28. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Forecasting Data Vintages," Working Papers 2012-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    29. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
    30. Sarun Kamolthip, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with LSTM and Mixed Frequency Time Series Data," PIER Discussion Papers 165, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    31. Kosei Fukuda, 2007. "Forecasting real-time data allowing for data revisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 429-444.
    32. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: A MIDASSO approach," KOF Working papers 15-375, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    33. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos, 2011. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys," Discussion Papers 11-01, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    34. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    35. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers No 2/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    36. Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
    37. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jan), pages 81-93.
    38. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Makroökonomische Prognosen mit gemischten Frequenzen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 22-33, November.
    39. Michael P Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2017. "Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    40. Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    41. Santiago Etchegaray Alvarez, 2022. "Proyecciones macroeconómicas con datos en frecuencias mixtas. Modelos ADL-MIDAS, U-MIDAS y TF-MIDAS con aplicaciones para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2022004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    42. Fackler, James S., 2002. "Comment on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 559-562, December.
    43. Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017. "The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
    44. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Altavilla, Carlo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 846, European Central Bank.
    45. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2009. "Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/17, European University Institute.
    46. Andrew C. Chang & Tyler J. Hanson, 2015. "The Accuracy of Forecasts Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    47. Chang, Andrew C. & Hanson, Tyler J., 2016. "The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.
    48. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
    49. Jiayi Luo & Cindy Long Yu, 2021. "Determining Number of Factors in Dynamic Factor Models Contributing to GDP Nowcasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-23, November.
    50. Delphine Irac & Frédéric Sédillot, 2002. "Short-Run Assessment of French Economic Activity Using OPTIM," Working papers 88, Banque de France.
    51. Nava, Consuelo R. & Osti, Linda & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2022. "Forecasting Domestic Tourism across Regional Destinations through MIDAS Regressions," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202207, University of Turin.
    52. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    53. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2019. "Predicting interest rates in real-time," Discussion Papers 19/18, Department of Economics, University of York.
    54. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
    55. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307, April.
    56. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvao, Ana, "undated". "First Announcements and Real Economic Activity," Economic Research Papers 271314, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    57. Jari Hännikäinen, 2016. "Selection of an Estimation Window in the Presence of Data Revisions and Recent Structural Breaks," Working Papers 1692, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    58. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2011. "Improving Real-time Estimates of Output Gaps and Inflation Trends with Multiple-vintage Models," Working Papers 678, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    59. Valentina Raponi & Cecilia Frale, 2014. "Revisions in official data and forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(3), pages 451-472, August.
    60. Heinisch, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    61. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Working Paper Series 365, European Central Bank.
    62. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2015. "How Quickly is News Incorporated in Fiscal Forecasts?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2802-2812.
    63. Keijsers, Bart & van Dijk, Dick, 2025. "Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real time?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 748-762.
    64. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Ravazzolo, F., 2007. "Evaluating real-time forecasts in real-time," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    65. van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
    66. Frédérique Bec & Patrick Kanda, 2019. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations?," Working Papers hal-02175836, HAL.
    67. Clements Michael P., 2012. "Forecasting U.S. Output Growth with Non-Linear Models in the Presence of Data Uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, January.
    68. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Staff Working Papers 11-16, Bank of Canada.
    69. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Christopher J. Kurz & Tyler Radler, 2018. "Using Payroll Processor Microdata to Measure Aggregate Labor Market Activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    70. M. Mogliani & Thomas Ferrière, 2016. "Rationality of announcements, business cycle asymmetry, and predictability of revisions. The case of French GDP," Working papers 600, Banque de France.
    71. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    72. Esmaeil Ebadi, 2025. "The E-Rule: A Novel Composite Indicator for Predicting Economic Recessions," Papers 2503.09839, arXiv.org.
    73. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2011. "Konstruktion von Indikatoren zur Analyse der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in den Dienstleistungsbereichen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55.
    74. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Data revisions and DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 215-232.
    75. Daragh Clancy, 2013. "Output Gap Estimation Uncertainty: Extracting the TFP Cycle Using an Aggregated PMI Series," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18.
    76. Duarte, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rua, António, 2017. "A mixed frequency approach to the forecasting of private consumption with ATM/POS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-75.
    77. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules without Forward-Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
    78. Cecilia Frale & Valentina Raponi, 2011. "Revisions in ocial data and forecasting," Working Papers LuissLab 1194, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    79. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Using Newspapers for Tracking the Business Cycle," KOF Working papers 13-337, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    80. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization Institute Working Papers 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    81. Duc Do, Nguyen, 2024. "Money/asset ratio as a predictor of inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    82. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
    83. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307.
    84. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
    85. Jim Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig, 2019. "Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 101(4).
    86. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    87. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-189.
    88. Carriero, Andrea & Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2015. "Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 757-768.
    89. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," Bank of England working papers 237, Bank of England.
    90. Katharina Glass, 2018. "Predictability of Euro Area Revisions," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201801, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    91. Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
    92. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    93. Camino-Mogro, Segundo, 2020. "Turbulence in startups: Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on creation of new firms and its capital," MPRA Paper 104502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    94. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2005. "UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0502, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    95. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    96. Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    97. Guerrero Víctor M. & García Andrea C. & Sainz Esperanza, 2013. "Rapid Estimates of Mexico’s Quarterly GDP," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 29(3), pages 397-423, June.
    98. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvao, Ana, "undated". "Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions," Economic Research Papers 270771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    99. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013. "Macroeconomic Variables and South African Stock Return Predictability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 612-622.
    100. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Maurizio Luisi, 2013. "Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow," NBER Working Papers 19650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    101. Nima Nonejad, 2022. "New Findings Regarding the Out-of-Sample Predictive Impact of the Price of Crude Oil on the United States Industrial Production," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 1-35, March.
    102. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
    103. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00511979, HAL.
    104. Cláudia Duarte, 2016. "A Mixed Frequency Approach to Forecast Private Consumption with ATM/POS Data," Working Papers w201601, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    105. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
    106. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    107. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    108. Andrew C. Chang, 2018. "Nothing is Certain Except Death and Taxes : The Lack of Policy Uncertainty from Expiring \"Temporary\" Taxes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    109. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    110. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2005. "VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision," Working Papers 0501, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    111. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Assessing Macro Uncertainty In Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2015-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    112. Bec, Frédérique & Kanda, Patrick, 2020. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations? An empirical assessment from US real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    113. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    114. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2008. "Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6409, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    115. Iva Glišic, 2024. "A comparison of using MIDAS and LSTM models for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers Bulletin 22, National Bank of Serbia.
    116. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    117. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Luisi, Maurizio, 2013. "Eurozone Sovereign Yield Spreads and Diverging Economic Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 9538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    118. Allan W. Gregory & Hui Zhu, 2014. "Testing the value of lead information in forecasting monthly changes in employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7), pages 505-514, April.
    119. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2015. "Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP," Working Papers No 10/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    120. Vermeulen, Philip, 2014. "An evaluation of business survey indices for short-term forecasting: Balance method versus Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 882-897.
    121. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    122. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    123. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00511979, HAL.
    124. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00505165, HAL.
    125. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    126. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    127. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "Does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    128. Kumar, Labesh, 2026. "The Output Gap: Method Choice, Data Revisions, and Policy Implications," MPRA Paper 127829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    129. Scott Schuh, 2001. "An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 35-56.
    130. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US Output Growth," Working Papers 616, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    131. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    132. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    133. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2012. "Forecasting GDP over the business cycle in a multi-frequency and data-rich environment," Working papers 384, Banque de France.

  12. William G. Gale & Evan F. Koenig & Diane Lim Rogers & John Sabelhaus, 1998. "Taxing Government in a National Retail Sales Tax: Technical Paper 1999-5," Working Papers 13343, Congressional Budget Office.

    Cited by:

    1. Paul Bachman & Jonathan Haughton & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Alfonso Sanchez-Penalver & David G. Tuerck, 2006. "Taxing Sales Under the FairTax: What Rate Works?," NBER Working Papers 12732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  13. Sheila Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig, 1997. "Real-time GDP Growth Forecasts," Working Papers 9710, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    2. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
    3. Nathan S. Balke & D'Ann M. Petersen, 1998. "How well does the Beige Book reflect economic activity? Evaluating qualitative information quantitatively," Working Papers 9802, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Tom Stark, 2000. "Does current-quarter information improve quarterly forecasts for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "Does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  14. Evan F. Koenig, 1996. "Aggregate price adjustment: the Fischerian alternative," Working Papers 9615, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Kevin X. D. & Liu, Zheng, 2001. "Production chains and general equilibrium aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 437-462, October.
    2. Andres, Javier & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Nelson, Edward, 2005. "Sticky-price models and the natural rate hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 1025-1053, July.
    3. Christopher J. Erceg, 1997. "Nominal wage rigidities and the propagation of monetary disturbances," International Finance Discussion Papers 590, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 1998. "Staggered Contracts and Business Cycle Persistence," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 105, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    5. McCallum, Bennett T., 2008. "Reconsideration of the P-bar model of gradual price adjustment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1480-1493, November.
    6. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2009. "Inflation persistence," Working Papers 09-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    8. Rochelle M. Edge, 2002. "The Equivalence of Wage and Price Staggering in Monetary Business Cycle Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(3), pages 559-585, July.
    9. Tyler Atkinson & Evan F. Koenig, 2012. "Inflation, slack, and Fed credibility," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan.

  15. Evan F. Koenig, 1995. "Targeting nominal income: a closer look," Working Papers 9518, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Evan F. Koenig, 2011. "An IS-LM analysis of the zero-bound problem," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    2. Dale Henderson & Jinill Kim, 1999. "Exact Utilities under Alternative Monetary Rules in a Simple Macro Model with Optimizing Agents," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 507-535, November.
    3. Jonathan Benchimol, 2024. "Central bank objectives, monetary policy rules, and limited information," Post-Print emse-04624959, HAL.
    4. Roisland, Oistein, 2001. "Institutional Arrangements for Monetary Policy When Output Is Persistent," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 994-1014, November.
    5. Fang, Chung-rou & Lai, Ching-chong, 2002. "Targeting nominal income versus targeting price level: A target zone perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 229-249.
    6. Kim, Jinill & Henderson, Dale W., 2005. "Inflation targeting and nominal-income-growth targeting: When and why are they suboptimal?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1463-1495, November.
    7. Dale W. Henderson & Jinill Kim, 1998. "The choice of a monetary policy reaction function in a simple optimizing model," International Finance Discussion Papers 601, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Evan F. Koenig, 2012. "All in the family: the close connection between nominal-GDP targeting and the Taylor Rule," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar.
    9. Evan F. Koenig, 2011. "Monetary policy, financial stability, and the distribution of risk," Working Papers 1111, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  16. Evan F. Koenig, 1994. "The P* model of inflation revisited," Working Papers 9414, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter, 1998. "P* revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  17. Evan F. Koenig, 1994. "Capacity utilization and the evolution of manufacturing output: a closer look at the \"bounce-back effect.\"," Working Papers 9402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Siavash Mohades & Giulia Piccillo & Maria Savona & Tania Treibich, 2025. "Firms’ Investment and Capacity Utilisation: The Role of Financial Constraints and Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 12108, CESifo.

  18. Evan F. Koenig, 1993. "Searching for a stable M2-demand equation," Working Papers 9339, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Evan F. Koenig, 1994. "The P* model of inflation revisited," Working Papers 9414, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Abdur Chowdhury & Mark Wheeler, 1999. "The velocity of US M2 in the 1990s: some further evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1137-1144.

  19. Kenneth M. Emery & Evan F. Koenig, 1993. "Why the composite index of leading indicators doesn't lead," Working Papers 9318, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "Solving the mystery of the disappearing January blip in state employment data," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 53-62.
    3. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "The disappearing January blip and other state employment mysteries," Working Papers 9403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Gregory W. Huffman, 1994. "A primer on the nature of business cycles," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 27-41.
    6. Keith R. Phillips & Lucinda Vargas & Victor Zarnowitz, 1996. "New tools for analyzing the Mexican economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II.

  20. Kenneth M. Emery & Evan F. Koenig, 1992. "Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Working Papers 9214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    2. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1997. "Modelling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9734/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Scott Freeman & Dong-Pyo Hong & Dan Peled, 1999. "Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 402-432, April.
    5. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Francois, P. & Lloyd-Ellis, H., 2001. "Animal Spirits Meets Creative Destruction," Other publications TiSEM d583b352-a7f4-434f-8731-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Sarlan, Haldun, 2001. "Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-382.
    8. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    9. Dufrenot, Gilles & Mignon, Valerie & Peguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2004. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigation using MRSTAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-71, January.
    10. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
    11. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
    12. Nathan S. Balke & Mark A. Wynne, 1993. "Recessions and recoveries in real business cycle models: do real business cycle models generate cyclical behavior?," Working Papers 9322, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Evan F. Koenig, 1994. "Capacity utilization and the evolution of manufacturing output: a closer look at the \"bounce-back effect.\"," Working Papers 9402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  21. Evan F. Koenig, 1989. "Real money balances and the timing of consumption: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 8906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Alfonso Palacio Vera, 2009. "Some Reflections on the Theory of the “Liquidity Trap”," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 09-02, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    2. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2006. "Evaluating monetary policy when nominal interest rates are almost zero," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 434-453, September.
    3. David Amirault & Brian O'Reilly, 2001. "The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: How Important Is It?," Staff Working Papers 01-6, Bank of Canada.
    4. Ippei Fujiwara & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Kozo Ueda, 2015. "Policy regime change against chronic deflation? Policy option under a long-term liquidity trap," Globalization Institute Working Papers 233, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Ippei Fujiwara & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Kozo Ueda, 2015. "Policy Regime Change Against Chronic Deflation?," Working Papers halshs-01545830, HAL.
    6. F. H. Capie & D. P. Tsomocos & G. E. Wood, 2005. "Modelling Institutional Change in the Payments System, and its Implications for Monetary Policy," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    7. Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Luca Sessa, 2012. "Economic (in)stability under monetary targeting," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 858, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. C. Kenrick Hunte, 2012. "The Equation of Exchange: A Derivation," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 57(2), pages 210-215, November.
    10. Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Seitz, Franz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank.
    11. Alessandro Piergallini, 2024. "Fiscal Stimulus of Last Resort," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1479-1514, September.
    12. Takeshi Kimura & Hiroshi Kobayashi & Jun Muranaga & Hiroshi Ugai, 2003. "The effect of the increase in the monetary base of Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 276-312, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say “Probably Not”," Working Papers IES 2016/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2016.
    14. Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The analytics of monetary non-neutrality in the Sidrauski model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 129-135, January.
    15. Warnock, Francis E., 2003. "Exchange rate dynamics and the welfare effects of monetary policy in a two-country model with home-product bias," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, June.
    16. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jones, Barry E. & Stracca, Livio, 2008. "Does money matter in the IS curve? The case of the UK," Working Paper Series 904, European Central Bank.
    18. Jia, Pengfei, 2021. "Understanding a New Keynesian Model with Liquidity," MPRA Paper 108286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mariano Kulish & Stephen Elias, 2013. "Direct effects of money on aggregate demand: another look at the evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3801-3809, September.
    20. Francis E. Warnock, 1998. "Idiosyncratic tastes in a two-country optimizing model: implications ; of a standard presumption," International Finance Discussion Papers 631, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Verónica Mies M. & Felipe Morandé L. & Matías Tapia G., 2002. "Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanisms: New Elements for an old Debate," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 29-66, December.
    22. Edward Nelson, 2000. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Bank of England working papers 122, Bank of England.
    23. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    24. F H Capie & Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Geoffrey E Wood, 2003. "E-barter versus fiat money: will central banks survive?," Bank of England working papers 197, Bank of England.
    25. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Chéron, A. & Langot, François, 1999. "The Phillips and Beveridge curves revisited," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9905, CEPREMAP.
    27. Riyad Abubaker, 2016. "Consumption and Money Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 449-463.
    28. Jonathan Benchimol & Irfan Qureshi, 2019. "Time-Varying Money Demand and Real Balance Effects," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2019/7, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    29. Cheng K. Wu, 1997. "New Result in Theory of Consumption: Changes in Savings and Income Growth," Macroeconomics 9706007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Sunirand, Pojanart, 2003. "The role of money in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: evidence from Thailand," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    31. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2012. "Estimating the Evolution of Money’s Role in the U.S. Monetary Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 23-52, February.
    32. Liu, Zehao & He, Ping, 2022. "Real liquidity and banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

  22. Evan F. Koenig, 1989. "Are the permanent-income model of consumption and the accelerator model of investment compatible?," Working Papers 8915, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Robert G. King, 1993. "Will the New Keynesian Macroeconomics Resurrect the IS-LM Model?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 67-82, Winter.

  23. Evan F. Koenig, 1988. "Investment and the nominal interest rate: the variable velocity case," Working Papers 8805, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Evan F. Koenig, 1989. "Real money balances and the timing of consumption: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 8906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Holman, Jill A. & Rioja, Felix K., 2001. "International transmission of anticipated inflation under alternative exchange-rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 497-519, August.
    3. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 1998. "Endogenous growth and the welfare costs of inflation: a reconsideration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 465-482, March.

Articles

  1. Jim Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig, 2019. "Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 101(4).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Benjamin D. Keen & Evan F. Koenig, 2018. "How Robust Are Popular Models of Nominal Frictions?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1299-1342, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Alan Armen & Evan F. Koenig, 2017. "Navigating by the Stars: The Natural Rate as Economic Forecasting Tool," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 12(2), pages 1-4, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Arto Kovanen, 2019. "Wage Growth Puzzle and Capacity Utilization," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 15-31, March.
    2. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    3. Arto Kovanen, 2019. "Perspectives From the Past for the Federal Reserve¡¯s Monetary Policy and Communication," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(1), pages 31-51, January.

  4. Alan Armen & Evan F. Koenig, 2015. "Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec.

    Cited by:

    1. Razzak, Weshah, 2020. "The Riddle of the Natural Rate of Interest," MPRA Paper 102663, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2020.

  5. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2014. "Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real‐Time VAR Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 545-564, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Narayan Kundan Kishor, 2021. "Forecasting real‐time economic activity using house prices and credit conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 213-227, March.
    2. Alan Armen & Evan F. Koenig, 2015. "Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec.
    3. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Michelle L. Barnes & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2017. "Consumer Attitudes and Their Forecasting Power for Consumer Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 1031-1058, August.
    5. João Pedro Pereira & António Rua, 2018. "Asset Pricing with a Bank Risk Factor," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 993-1032, August.
    6. Kurowski, Łukasz & Rogowicz, Karol, 2018. "Are business and credit cycles synchronised internally or externally?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 124-141.
    7. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2023. "Forecasting House Prices: The Role of Fundamentals, Credit Conditions, and Supply Indicators," MPRA Paper 116819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2016. "The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting," Working Papers 1613, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.

  6. Richard W. Fisher & Evan F. Koenig, 2014. "Are we there yet? assessing progress toward full employment and price stability," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 9(13), pages 1-4, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2018. "U.S. wage growth and nonlinearities: The roles of inflation and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 273-292.
    2. Nathan R. Babb & Alan K. Detmeister, 2017. "Nonlinearities in the Phillips Curve for the United States : Evidence Using Metropolitan Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Richard Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification," Working Papers 19-09R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    4. Renaud St-Cyr, 2018. "Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-3, Bank of Canada.
    5. Amal Ben Abdallah & Sourour Guidara & Rima Aloulou & Maha Kalai & Kamel Helali, 2024. "Investigating the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Mauritania: an empirical analysis using the regime change model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, January.
    6. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2016. "Non-Linear Phillips Curves with Inflation Regime-Switching," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2018. "Understanding U.S. Wage Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 2018/138, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.

  7. Evan F. Koenig, 2013. "Like a Good Neighbor: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Distribution of Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 57-82, June.

    Cited by:

    1. David Andolfatto & Aleksander Berentsen & Fernando M. Martin, 2017. "Money, banking and financial markets," ECON - Working Papers 259, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    2. John C. Williams, 2017. "Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks & Strategies in a Low R-Star World," Speech 176, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. James B. Bullard & Aarti Singh, 2016. "Incomplete Credit Markets and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Labor Supply : a presentation at Bank of Korea 2016 Conference, Employment and Growth, Seoul, Korea, May 30, 2016," Speech 270, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Pender, Casey, 2024. "Is deflation cause for panic? Evidence from the National Banking era," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Sumner, Scott, 2017. "Monetary policy rules in light of the great recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 90-99.
    7. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2019. "Tying down the anchor: monetary policy rules and the lower bound on interest rates," Staff Reports 887, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Azariadis, Costas & Bullard, James & Singh, Aarti & Suda, Jacek, 2019. "Incomplete credit markets and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 83-101.
    9. Sheedy, Kevin D., 2017. "Conventional and unconventional monetary policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 127-147.
    10. John C. Williams, 2014. "Inflation targeting and the global financial crisis: successes and challenges," Speech 134, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Beckworth, David, 2017. "Permanent versus temporary monetary base Injections: Implications for past and future Fed Policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 110-126.
    12. John C. Williams, 2017. "Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks and Strategies in a Low R-star World," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  8. Tyler Atkinson & Evan F. Koenig, 2012. "Inflation, slack, and Fed credibility," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan.

    Cited by:

    1. Jim Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig, 2019. "Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 101(4).
    2. Anton Cheremukhin, 2013. "Estimating the output gap in real time," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec.
    3. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    4. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2016. "The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting," Working Papers 1613, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  9. Evan F. Koenig, 2012. "All in the family: the close connection between nominal-GDP targeting and the Taylor Rule," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar.

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "Flexible inflation targeting vs nominal GDP targeting in the euro area," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03429880, HAL.
    2. David Beckworth, 2017. "The monetary policy origins of the eurozone crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 114-134, June.
    3. James B. Bullard & Riccardo DiCecio, 2025. "Optimal Monetary Policy for the Masses," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 107(10), July.
    4. Veetil, Vipin P. & Wagner, Richard E., 2018. "Nominal GDP stabilization: Chasing a mirage," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 227-236.
    5. Raffinot, Thomas, 2017. "Interest-Rates-Free Monetary Policy Rule," Working Papers 06898, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    6. Alexander Salter, 2014. "Is there a self-enforcing monetary constitution?," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 280-300, September.

  10. Tyler Atkinson & Evan F. Koenig, 2012. "High unemployment points to below-target (but still stable) inflation," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 7(12), October.

    Cited by:

    1. Tyler Atkinson & David Luttrell & Harvey Rosenblum, 2013. "How bad was it? The costs and consequences of the 2007–09 financial crisis," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul.

  11. Evan F. Koenig, 2011. "An IS-LM analysis of the zero-bound problem," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.

    Cited by:

    1. Michl Aleš, 2019. "Ten Years Later: Lessons for DSGE Builders and Czech Policy Makers," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(3), pages 159-174, September.

  12. Fernandez, Adriana Z. & Koenig, Evan F. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "Can alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 733-757, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo Nicol√°s P√°ez, 2015. "Prediciendo decisiones de agentes econ√≥micos: ¬øC√≥mo determina el Banco de la Rep√∫blica de Colombia la tasa de inter√©s?," Documentos CEDE 12567, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    2. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
    3. Hoffmann, Andreas, 2013. "Did the Fed and ECB react asymmetrically with respect to asset market developments?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 197-211.
    4. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
    5. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2017. "How Does the Policy Rate Respond to Output and Prices in Thailand?," MPRA Paper 82050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2014. "Time-varying inflation targeting after the nineties," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 400-408.
    7. Yu-Hsi Chou, 2017. "Dissecting Exchange Rates and Fundamentals in the Modern Floating Era: The Role of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 165-194, February.
    8. Moccero, Diego & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2015. "The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed," Working Paper Series 1792, European Central Bank.

  13. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2009. "VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 181-190, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.

    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    2. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2020. "How effective is the Taylor rule? Some insights from the time-frequency domain," BoF Economics Review 1/2020, Bank of Finland.
    3. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Youngcheol Shin, 2011. "Shifting Preferences at the Fed: Evidence from Rolling Dynamic Multipliers and Impulse Response Analysis," Working Papers 2011-057, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    4. Yu-Hsi Chou, 2017. "Dissecting Exchange Rates and Fundamentals in the Modern Floating Era: The Role of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 165-194, February.

  15. Evan F. Koenig, 2006. "Through a glass, darkly: how data revisions complicate monetary policy," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 1(dec).

    Cited by:

    1. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 148-159, June.

  16. Evan F. Koenig & Keith R. Phillips, 2005. "The national economic outlook: continued growth likely," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Nov, pages 1,9-13.

    Cited by:

    1. Tyler Atkinson & David Luttrell & Harvey Rosenblum, 2013. "How bad was it? The costs and consequences of the 2007–09 financial crisis," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul.

  17. Evan F. Koenig, 2004. "Monetary policy prospects," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 1-16.

    Cited by:

    1. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. George A. Kahn, 2012. "Estimated rules for monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q IV).
    3. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
    4. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2021. "Policy Rules and Economic Performance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2017. "The Yellen rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 59-71.
    6. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione 'Piero Sraffa'.
    7. Fernandez, Adriana Z. & Koenig, Evan F. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "Can alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 733-757, November.

  18. Jim Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig, 2003. "Monetary policy in a zero-interest-rate economy," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-5,16.

    Cited by:

    1. Woon Gyu Choi & Michael B. Devereux, 2005. "Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending: Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2005/007, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Freydorf, Christoph & Kimmich, Christian & Koudela, Thomas & Schuster, Ludwig & Wenzlaff, Ferdinand, 2012. "Wachstumszwänge in der Geldwirtschaft. Zwischenbericht der Wissenschaftlichen Arbeitsgruppe nachhaltiges Geld," EconStor Preprints 142471, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

  19. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 618-628, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Koenig, Evan F., 2003. "Is the markup a useful real-time predictor of inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 261-267, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy B. Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Modelling inflation dynamics: a critical review of recent research," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization Institute Working Papers 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    4. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    5. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  21. Evan F. Koenig, 2002. "Using the Purchasing Managers' Index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 1(6).

    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza & José L. Ruiz-Alba, 2025. "The COVID-19 Shock and Spanish Hotel Activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 11985, CESifo.
    2. Lombardi, Marco J. & Godbout, Claudia, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
    3. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos, 2011. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys," Discussion Papers 11-01, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    4. Moritz Wehking & Tim Alexander Herberger, 2025. "Sector-based portfolio changes of private equity funds during economic shocks," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(6), pages 697-706, October.
    5. Gabe de Bondt, 2012. "Nowcasting: Trust the Purchasing Managers’ Index or wait for the flash GDP estimate?," EcoMod2012 3896, EcoMod.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza & Jose L. Ruiz-Alba, 2026. "Short-Term Disruptions and Recovery Patterns in Spanish Hotel Activity: Insights from Quantitative and Qualitative Evidence," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 332-355.
    7. Daniel Francois Meyer & Thomas Habanabakize, 2018. "Analysis of Relationships and Causality between Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(6), pages 25-32.
    8. van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
    9. Lan, Yueqin & Huang, Yong & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Investor sentiment and stock price: Empirical evidence from Chinese SEOs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 703-714.
    10. Poza, Carlos & Monge, Manuel, 2020. "A real time leading economic indicator based on text mining for the Spanish economy. Fractional cointegration VAR and Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 163-175.
    11. Herwadkar, Snehal S. & Ghosh, Saurabh, 2020. "Is PMI a good leading indicator of industrial production?: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 97924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Daragh Clancy, 2013. "Output Gap Estimation Uncertainty: Extracting the TFP Cycle Using an Aggregated PMI Series," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18.
    13. Rolando F. Peláez, 2018. "Improving the usefulness of the Purchasing Managers’ Index," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 195-201, October.
    14. Kyungsu Kim, 2025. "Unemployment Dynamics Forecasting with Machine Learning Regression Models," Papers 2505.01933, arXiv.org.
    15. Chen, Leqin, 2025. "China’s impact on global commodity returns: A time-varying perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 677-689.
    16. Schnatz, Bernd & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2012. "Survey-based nowcasting of US growth: a real-time forecast comparison over more than 40 years," Working Paper Series 1455, European Central Bank.
    17. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    18. Valentina Aprigliano, 2011. "The relationship between the PMI and the Italian index of industrial production and the impact of the latest economic crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 820, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & George, Asish Thomas, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India," MPRA Paper 50929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Li, Jiahan & Chen, Weiye, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic time series: LASSO-based approaches and their forecast combinations with dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 996-1015.
    21. Claudia Godbout & Jocelyn Jacob, 2010. "Le pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI," Discussion Papers 10-3, Bank of Canada.
    22. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.

  22. Evan F. Koenig & Thomas F. Siems & Mark A. Wynne, 2002. "New economy, new recession," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar, pages 11-16.

    Cited by:

    1. Hélène Baudchon, 2002. "The Aftermath of the "New Economy" Bust : a Case Study of Five OECD Countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2002-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Amit Basu & Thomas F. Siems, 2004. "The impact of e-business technologies on supply chain operations: a macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers 0404, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  23. Evan F. Koenig, 2000. "Is there a persistence problem? Part 2: Maybe not," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 11-19.

    Cited by:

    1. Gerke, Rafael & Rubart, Jens, 2005. "The Role of Money Demand in a Business Cycle Model with Staggered Wage Contracts," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 142, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    2. Benjamin D. Keen, 2007. "Sticky Price And Sticky Information Price‐Setting Models: What Is The Difference?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 770-786, October.

  24. Evan F. Koenig, 2000. "Productivity, the stock market and monetary policy in the new economy," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 6-9,12.

    Cited by:

    1. Koenig, Evan F., 2003. "Is the markup a useful real-time predictor of inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 261-267, August.

  25. Koenig, Evan F., 1999. "Achieving "Program Neutrality" Under a National Retail Sales Tax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(4), pages 683-698, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Alan D. Viard, 2000. "The transition to consumption taxation, part 1: the impact on existing capital," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q3, pages 2-22.

  26. Evan F. Koenig, 1999. "Is there a persistence problem? Part I: maybe," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 10-15.

    Cited by:

    1. Evan F. Koenig, 2000. "Is there a persistence problem? Part 2: Maybe not," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 11-19.

  27. Evan F. Koenig, 1998. "What's new about the new economy? : some lessons from the current expansion," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 7-11.

    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Bhattacharya, Prasad S. & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2008. "Forecasting industry-level CPI and PPI inflation: Does exchange rate pass-through matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 134-150.
    3. Jason L. Saving, 2000. "The effect of welfare reform and technological change on unemployment," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q2, pages 26-34.

  28. Gregory W. Huffman & Evan F. Koenig, 1998. "The dynamic impact of fundamental tax reform part 2 : extensions," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 1-1.

    Cited by:

    1. Alan D. Viard, 2000. "The transition to consumption taxation, part 1: the impact on existing capital," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q3, pages 2-22.
    2. Alan D. Viard, 2001. "The transition to consumption taxation, Part 2: the impact on existing financial assets," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 20-31.

  29. Gregory W. Huffman & Evan F. Koenig, 1998. "The dynamic impact of fundamental tax reform part 1: the basic model," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 24-37.

    Cited by:

    1. Alan D. Viard, 2000. "The transition to consumption taxation, part 1: the impact on existing capital," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q3, pages 2-22.
    2. Alan D. Viard, 2001. "The transition to consumption taxation, Part 2: the impact on existing financial assets," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 20-31.
    3. Gregory W. Huffman & Evan F. Koenig, 1998. "The dynamic impact of fundamental tax reform part 2 : extensions," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 1-1.

  30. Evan F. Koenig, 1996. "Forecasting M2 growth: an exploration in real time," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 16-26.

    Cited by:

    1. Cara S. Lown & Stavros Peristiani & Kenneth J. Robinson, 1999. "What was behind the M2 breakdown?," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 99-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  31. Evan F. Koenig, 1996. "Capacity utilization as a real-time predictor of manufacturing output," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 16-23.

    Cited by:

    1. Kennedy, James E., 1998. "An Analysis of Time-Series Estimates of Capacity Utilization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 169-187, January.
    2. Sheila Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig & Jeremy M. Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of \"real-time\" data in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 684, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    4. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
    6. Stefan Erdorf & Nicolas Heinrichs, 2011. "Co-movement of revenue: structural changes in the business cycle," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(4), pages 411-433, December.
    7. Duy, Timothy A. & Thoma, Mark A., 1998. "Modeling and Forecasting Cointegrated Variables: Some Practical Experience," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 291-307, May.

  32. Koenig, Evan F., 1996. "Interest rates and the recent weakness in M2: An extension to the P* model of inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 487-498, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.

  33. Koenig, Evan F., 1996. "Targeting nominal income: A closer look," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 89-93, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  34. Koenig, Evan F., 1996. "Long-term interest rates and the recent weakness in M2," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 81-101, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Cara S. Lown & Stavros Peristiani & Kenneth J. Robinson, 1999. "What was behind the M2 breakdown?," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 99-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Evan F. Koenig, 1996. "Forecasting M2 growth: an exploration in real time," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 16-26.
    3. Yash P. Mehra, 1997. "A review of the recent behavior of M2 demand," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-44.
    4. Koenig, Evan F., 1996. "Interest rates and the recent weakness in M2: An extension to the P* model of inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 487-498, December.

  35. Evan F. Koenig, 1995. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with sticky nominal wages," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 24-31.

    Cited by:

    1. Sheila Dolmas & Jahyeong Koo & Mark A. Wynne, 1997. "Rolling recessions," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 1-4.
    2. Stephen D. Prowse, 1997. "Corporate financing and governance: an international perspective," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 9-10.
    3. Evan F. Koenig, 1997. "Is the Fed slave to a defunct economist," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 5-8.
    4. Lori L. Taylor, 1997. "Regional update," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 1-11.
    5. Guender, Alfred V., 2002. "Optimal and efficient monetary policy rules in a forward-looking model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 41-49, March.
    6. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2001. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretive survey," Working Papers 0102, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Evan F. Koenig, 2011. "Monetary policy, financial stability, and the distribution of risk," Working Papers 1111, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  36. Evan F. Koenig & Mark A. Wynne, 1994. "Is there an output-inflation trade-off?," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Aug, pages 1-4.

    Cited by:

    1. Sheila Dolmas & Jahyeong Koo & Mark A. Wynne, 1997. "Rolling recessions," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 1-4.
    2. Stephen D. Prowse, 1997. "Corporate financing and governance: an international perspective," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 9-10.
    3. Chih-Ping Chang & Kenneth M. Emery, 1997. "Is there a stable relationship between capacity utilization and inflation?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 14-20.
    4. Evan F. Koenig, 1997. "Is the Fed slave to a defunct economist," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 5-8.
    5. Lori L. Taylor, 1997. "Regional update," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 1-11.

  37. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Evan F. Koenig, 1993. "Rethinking the IS in IS-LM: adapting Keynesian tools to non-Keynesian economies Part 2," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec, pages 17-35.

    Cited by:

    1. Edward Nelson, 2003. "Money and the transmission mechanism in the optimizing IS-LM specification," Working Papers 2003-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims, 1994. "Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 81-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Casares, Miguel & McCallum, Bennett T., 2006. "An optimizing IS-LM framework with endogenous investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 621-644, December.
    5. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1997. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  39. Evan F. Koenig, 1993. "Rethinking the IS in IS-LM: adapting Keynesian tools to non-Keynesian economies Part 1," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 32-50.

    Cited by:

    1. Edward Nelson, 2003. "Money and the transmission mechanism in the optimizing IS-LM specification," Working Papers 2003-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Evan F. Koenig, 1993. "Rethinking the IS in IS-LM: adapting Keynesian tools to non-Keynesian economies Part 2," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec, pages 17-35.
    3. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2004. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1133-1153, September.

  40. Emery, Kenneth M. & Koenig, Evan F., 1992. "Forecasting turning points : Is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 431-435, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  41. Kenneth M. Emery & Evan F. Koenig, 1991. "Misleading indicators? Using the composite leading indicators to predict cyclical turning points," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-14.

    Cited by:

    1. Tazwell S. Rowe & Roy H. Webb, 1995. "An index of leading indicators for inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 75-96.
    2. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    3. Roy Batchelor & Pami Dua, 1997. "Consumer Confidence And The Probability Of Recession: A Markov Switching Model," Working papers 47, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Chan Guk Huh, 1991. "Recession probability indexes: a survey," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 31-40.
    5. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Layton, Allan P., 1996. "Dating and predicting phase changes in the U.S. business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 417-428, September.
    7. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "The disappearing January blip and other state employment mysteries," Working Papers 9403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Adriana Fernandez & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.

  42. Evan F. Koenig, 1990. "Real Money Balances and the Timing of Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(2), pages 399-425.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  43. Koenig, Evan F, 1989. "Investment and the Nominal Interest Rate: The Variable Velocity Case," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 325-344, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  44. Evan F. Koenig, 1989. "Recent trade and exchange rate movements: possible explanations," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 13-28.

    Cited by:

    1. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1997. "Accounting for real and nominal exchange rate movements in the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 233-254, April.
    2. Owen F. Humpage, 1992. "An introduction to the international implications of U.S. fiscal policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 28(Q III), pages 27-39.
    3. Edward J. Stevens, 1992. "Comparing Central Banks' Rulebooks," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q III, pages 2-15.

  45. Koenig, Evan F, 1987. "The Short-run 'Tobin Effect' in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(1), pages 43-53, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Burnside, C. & Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S., 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," RCER Working Papers 458, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    2. Joseph H. Haslag, 1995. "A comparison of alternative monetary environments," Working Papers 9511, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Joseph H. Haslag, 1997. "Output, growth, welfare, and inflation: a survey," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 11-21.
    4. Jill A. Holman & Felix K. Rioja, 1999. "International transmission of anticipated inflation under alternative exchange-rate regimes," Research Working Paper 99-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 1998. "Endogenous growth and the welfare costs of inflation: a reconsideration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 465-482, March.

  46. Evan F. Koenig, 1985. "Indirect Methods for Regulating Externalities Under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 479-493.

    Cited by:

    1. Haim Shalit, 1995. "Mean-Gini analysis of stochastic externalities: The case of groundwater contamination," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 6(1), pages 37-52, July.
    2. Iltae Kim & Sang-Ho Lee, 2002. "Comparison between optimal output tax and ad valorem tax for a polluting oligopolist under demand uncertainty," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, June.
    3. Kelly, David L., 2005. "Price and quantity regulation in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 36-60, November.
    4. Luca Di Corato & Yishay D. Maoz, 2022. "Externality Control and Endogenous Market Structure under Uncertainty: the Price vs. Quantity dilemma," Working Papers 2022: 13, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Lee, Sang-Ho & Kim, Jae-Cheol, 1995. "Oligopolistic incentives for pollution control with nonzero conjectures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 95-99, July.
    6. Boyer, Marcel & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1997. "Environmental risks and bank liability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1427-1459, August.
    7. Batabyal, Amitrajeet A., 1995. "Leading issues in domestic environmental regulation: A review essay," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 23-39, January.

  47. Koenig, Evan F., 1984. "Controlling stock externalities in a common property fishery subject to uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 124-138, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Rögnvaldur Hannesson & John Kenned, 2005. "Landing Fees versus Fish Quotas," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(4).
    2. Kelly, David L., 2005. "Price and quantity regulation in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 36-60, November.
    3. Fischer, Carolyn & Laxminarayan, Ramanan, 2010. "Managing partially protected resources under uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 129-141, March.
    4. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Regulating stock externalities under uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2, Supple), pages 416-432, March.
    5. Frank Jensen & Lars Gårn Hansen, 2017. "The welfare gain from switching to tax regulation of fisheries," IFRO Working Paper 2017/07, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    6. Hansen, Lars Gårn & Jensen, Frank, 2017. "Regulating fisheries under uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 164-177.

  48. Richard H. Day & Evan F. Koenig, 1975. "On Some Models of World Cataclysm," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 1-20.

    Cited by:

    1. Oleg V. Pavlov & Evangelos Katsamakas, 2024. "Tuition too high? Blame competition," Papers 2405.17762, arXiv.org.
    2. Pavlov, Oleg V. & Katsamakas, Evangelos, 2023. "Tuition too high? Blame competition," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 409-431.

Chapters

  1. Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn, 2012. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 1, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

    Cited by:

    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Wilmar Cabrera & Esteban Gómez & Juan Carlos Mendoza, 2013. "Tasa de interés de largo plazo, interés técnico y pasivo pensional," Borradores de Economia 796, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Lena Hulden & Ross McKitrick & Larry Hulden, 2012. "Average Household Size and the Eradication of Malaria," Working Papers 1203, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.

Books

  1. Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), 2012. "The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy," Books, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, number 4, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Arne Heise, 2014. "The Future of Economics in a Lakatos–Bourdieu Framework," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 70-93, July.
    2. John B. Taylor, 2017. "Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 24149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Murray, Christian J. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2015. "Markov Switching And The Taylor Principle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 913-930, June.
    4. Klaus Neusser, 2018. "The New Keynesian Model with Stochastically Varying Policies," Diskussionsschriften dp1801, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    5. Carl E. Walsh, 2015. "Day Two Keynote Address: Goals and Rules in Central Bank Design," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 295-352, September.
    6. Carl Walsh, 2015. "Goals and Rules in Central Bank Design," CESifo Working Paper Series 5293, CESifo.
    7. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    8. Jiang, Lei, 2014. "Stock liquidity and the Taylor rule," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 202-214.

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