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Tasa de interés de largo plazo, interés técnico y pasivo pensional

  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Wilmar Cabrera

    ()

  • Esteban Gómez

    ()

  • Juan Carlos Mendoza

Este artículo se pregunta si es oportuno modificar la tasa de interés técnica utilizada para descontar el pasivo pensional del nivel actual de 4% anual, dada, por un lado, la trayectoria reciente que ha tenido la tasa de interés real y, por otro, las circunstancias diferentes que vive la economía en relación con 1994 cuando fue fijada en dicho nivel. Se hacen diferentes pronósticos y simulaciones utilizando distintos enfoques estadísticos y financieros. Así mismo, se toma en cuenta la restricción macroeconómica que impone el crecimiento de muy largo plazo de la economía. Los resultados sugieren que no se debería mover la tasa de descuento del pasivo pensional y que ésta debería continuar en el 4% anual.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 796.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:796
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  1. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
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  3. Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn, 2012. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 1 Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
  4. David Andolfatto, 2012. "Liquidity shocks, real interest rates, and global imbalances," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 187-196.
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  6. María Angélica Arbeláez & Jorge Humberto Botero & Alejandra González & Camila Salamanca, 2011. "Sostenibilidad del seguro previsional en Colombia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 009066, FEDESARROLLO.
  7. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Juan David Prada Sarmiento & Luis Eduardo Rojas Dueñas Author- Email: lrojasdu@banrep.gov.co, . "La elasticidad de Frisch y la transmisión de la política monetaria en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 555, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  10. Diego M. Vásquez, 2003. "Mecanismo De Cobertura Para El Riesgo De Tasa De Interés Real De Los Bancos Hipotecarios Colombianos," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003189, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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