IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/011101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tasa de interés de largo plazo, interés técnico y pasivo pensional

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Wilmar Cabrera
  • Esteban Gómez
  • Juan Carlos Mendoza

Abstract

Este artículo se pregunta si es oportuno modificar la tasa de interés técnica utilizada para descontar el pasivo pensional del nivel actual de 4% anual, dada, por un lado, la trayectoria reciente que ha tenido la tasa de interés real y, por otro, las circunstancias diferentes que vive la economía en relación con 1994 cuando fue fijada en dicho nivel. Se hacen diferentes pronósticos y simulaciones utilizando distintos enfoques estadísticos y financieros. Así mismo, se toma en cuenta la restricción macroeconómica que impone el crecimiento de muy largo plazo de la economía. Los resultados sugieren que no se debería mover la tasa de descuento del pasivo pensional y que ésta debería continuar en el 4% anual.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Wilmar Cabrera & Esteban Gómez & Juan Carlos Mendoza, 2013. "Tasa de interés de largo plazo, interés técnico y pasivo pensional," Borradores de Economia 11101, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/be_796.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    2. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
    3. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    4. Juan David Prada Sarmiento & Luis Eduardo Rojas Dueñas, 2009. "La elasticidad de Frisch y la transmisión de la política monetaria en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 5404, Banco de la Republica.
    5. María Angélica Arbeláez & Jorge Humberto Botero & Alejandra González & Camila Salamanca, 2011. "Sostenibilidad del seguro previsional en Colombia," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 9066, Fedesarrollo.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    7. David Andolfatto, 2012. "Liquidity shocks, real interest rates, and global imbalances," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(May), pages 187-196.
    8. Diego M. Vásquez, 2003. "Mecanismo De Cobertura Para El Riesgo De Tasa De Interés Real De Los Bancos Hipotecarios Colombianos," Borradores de Economia 3189, Banco de la Republica.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Wilmar Cabrera & Esteban Gómez & Juan Carlos Mendoza, 2013. "Tasa de interés de largo plazo, interés técnico y pasivo pensional," Borradores de Economia 796, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Cai, Lili & Swanson, Norman R., 2011. "In- and out-of-sample specification analysis of spot rate models: Further evidence for the period 1982-2008," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 743-764, September.
    3. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2009. "Short-term spot rate models with nonparametric deterministic drift," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 731-747, August.
    4. Gao, Jiti, 2007. "Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 39563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2007.
    5. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    6. Anne Morrison Piehl & Suzanne J. Cooper & Anthony A. Braga & David M. Kennedy, 2003. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 550-558, August.
    7. Jan Gottschalk & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    9. Hyeongwoo Kim & Ying Lin, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices and the Role of Energy Prices," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    10. González-Rivera, Gloria & Sun, Yingying, 2017. "Density forecast evaluation in unstable environments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 416-432.
    11. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    12. Guntram B. Wolff & Alexander Schulz, 2008. "Sovereign bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and globalisation," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 332, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    14. Shinhye Chang & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Causality Between Per Capita Real GDP and Income Inequality in the U.S.: Evidence from a Wavelet Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 269-289, January.
    15. Benati, Luca, 2007. "Drift and breaks in labor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2847-2877, August.
    16. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    17. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2022. "Structural change tests under heteroskedasticity: Joint estimation versus two‐steps methods," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 389-411, May.
    18. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    19. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Arguments contre la zone franc [Against the cfa franc zone]," MPRA Paper 33710, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa de interés real; tasa de interés técnica; pasivo pensional; regla de oro.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:011101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.