IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v54y2017ipap110-126.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Permanent versus temporary monetary base Injections: Implications for past and future Fed Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Beckworth, David

Abstract

Despite the Federal Reserve's use of quantitative easing (QE) programs, the U.S. economy experienced one of the weakest recoveries on record following the Great Recession. Not only was real growth disappointingly low, but even nominal growth over which monetary policy has more control was feeble. Why did QE fail to stimulate robust aggregate demand growth? This paper argues the answer is that the Federal Reserve could not credibly commit to a permanent expansion of the monetary base under QE. Both quantity theoretic and New Keynesian models show, however, that a permanent expansion of the monetary base is needed to spur aggregate demand growth at the zero lower bound (ZLB). The Federal Reserve's inability to do so meant its QE programs got consigned to ‘irrelevance results’ of Krugman (1998) and Eggertson and Woodford (2003) and were never going to spark a strong a recovery. Going forward, this inability to commit to a permanent expansion of the monetary base at the ZLB will continue to weigh down on the effectiveness of Fed policy. As a result, this paper calls for a new monetary policy regime of a NGDP level target that is backstopped by the consolidated balance sheet of the government.

Suggested Citation

  • Beckworth, David, 2017. "Permanent versus temporary monetary base Injections: Implications for past and future Fed Policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 110-126.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pa:p:110-126
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.07.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070416301628
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
    2. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    3. Williamson, Stephen D., 2015. "Monetary Policy Normalization in the United States," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(2), pages 87-108.
    4. Ireland, Peter N., 2014. "The Macroeconomic Effects Of Interest On Reserves," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(06), pages 1271-1312, September.
    5. Edward Nelson, 2008. "Why Money Growth Determines Inflation in the Long Run: Answering the Woodford Critique," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1791-1814, December.
    6. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153 Elsevier.
    7. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel & Zhen Yan, 2017. "The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC," NBER Working Papers 23228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Narayana Kocherlakota, 2016. "Rules versus Discretion: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 1-55.
    9. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-1083, October.
    10. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2014. "Redundancy Or Mismeasurement? A Reappraisal Of Money," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(07), pages 1437-1465, October.
    11. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    12. Kevin D. Sheedy, 2014. "Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
    13. ., 2000. "Hicks on time and money," Chapters,in: Macroeconomic Instability and Coordination, chapter 5 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    15. Sumner, Scott, 1993. "Colonial Currency and the Quantity Theory of Money: A Critique of Smith's Interpretation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(01), pages 139-145, March.
    16. Dave Reifschneider & William Wascher & David Wilcox, 2015. "Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 71-109, May.
    17. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters,in: Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Alan J. Auerbach & Maurice Obstfeld, 2005. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 110-137, March.
    19. Jong-Won Yoon & Jinill Kim & Jungjin Lee, 2014. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," IMF Working Papers 14/210, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record," Working Papers (Old Series) 1214, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    21. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:48:y:2017:i:2017-01:p:1-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 255-269, April.
    23. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
    24. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    25. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications Second edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10495.
    26. Greg Howard & Robert F. Martin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2011. "Are recoveries from banking and financial crises really so different?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1037, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2015. "On the stability of money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 48-65.
    28. BENNETT T. McCALLUM, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy? A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1783-1790, December.
    29. Buiter, Willem H., 2014. "The simple analytics of helicopter money: Why it works - always," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-51.
    30. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall.
    31. Evan F. Koenig, 2013. "Like a Good Neighbor: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Distribution of Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 57-82, June.
    32. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-1048, November.
    33. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    34. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    35. Ben S. Bernanke, 2012. "Opening remarks: monetary policy since the onset of the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-22.
    36. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:jecsur:v:32:y:2018:i:5:p:1229-1256 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pa:p:110-126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.