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Citations for "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series"

by Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson

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  1. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2012. "Is there an Optimal Forecast Combination? A Stochastic Dominance Approach to Forecast Combination Puzzle," Working Paper Series 17_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  2. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 85, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  3. Matthias Burgert & Stephane Dees, 2009. "Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 385-402, July.
  4. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
  5. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2014. "Forecasting Copper Prices with Dynamic Averaging and Selection Models," Economics Working Paper Series 1430, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  6. Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  7. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2010. "Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Christian Schumacher, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
  10. Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
  11. Huang, Y-F., 2012. "Forecasting Chinese inflation and output: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," MPRA Paper 41933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Sandra Hanslin & Rolf Scheufele, 2016. "Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for exports?," Working Papers 2016-01, Swiss National Bank.
  13. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
  14. Tom Stark, 2010. "Realistic evaluation of real-time forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May.
  15. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2012. "U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials," CEPR Discussion Papers 8828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Andrea Cipollini & Giuseppe Missaglia, 2007. "Dynamic Factor analysis of industry sector default rates and implication for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 007, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  17. Carlo A. Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 755-783, December.
  18. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 598, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 29 Dec 2005.
  19. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2015. "Overcoming the Forecast Combination Puzzle: Lessons from the Time-Varying Effciency of Phillips Curve Forecasts of U.S. Inflation," Discussion Papers 2015-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  20. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2008. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 6706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2011. "The Real-Time Predictive Content of the KOF Economic Barometer," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(III), pages 353-375, September.
  22. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "A Comparison of Methods for the Construction of Composite Coincident and Leading Indexes for the UK," Working Papers 590, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  23. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
  24. Pang, Iris Ai Jao, 2010. "Forecasting Hong Kong economy using factor augmented vector autoregression," MPRA Paper 32495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Real-Time Factor Model Forecasting and the Effects of Instability," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-05, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  26. Edith Skriner, 2008. "Forecasting Global Flows," FIW Working Paper series 009, FIW.
  27. Helmut Herwartz, 2011. "Specific-to-general predictor selection in approximate autoregressions—Monte Carlo evidence and a large scale performance assessment with real data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(2), pages 147-168, June.
  28. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili & Patrizia Passiglia, 2011. "Assessing excess liquidity in the euro area: the role of sectoral distribution of money," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(23), pages 3213-3230.
  29. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "A Comparison of Multi-step GDP Forecasts for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers 212, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  30. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  31. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Makroökonomische Prognosen mit gemischten Frequenzen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 22-33, November.
  32. Boriss Siliverstovs & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2015. "Think national, forecast local: A case study of 71 German urban housing markets," KOF Working papers 15-372, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  33. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
  34. Pang, Iris Ai Jao, 2010. "Were Fed’s active monetary policy actions necessary?," MPRA Paper 32496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. David Hendry & Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  36. Charles Rahal, 2015. "House Price Forecasts with Factor Combinations," Discussion Papers 15-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  37. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2009. "Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 602-628, July.
  38. Erik Kole & Thijs Markwat & Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk, 2015. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Temporal and Portfolio Aggregation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-140/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  39. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2011. "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds," CEPR Discussion Papers 8194, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Turgut Kisinbay & Chikako Baba, 2011. "Predicting Recessions; A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations," IMF Working Papers 11/235, International Monetary Fund.
  41. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-14, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  42. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France," Working papers 101, Banque de France.
  43. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  44. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 293-318.
  45. Jordà, Òscar & Knüppel, Malte & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Empirical simultaneous confidence regions for path-forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  46. Rossen, Anja, 2011. "On the predictive content of nonlinear transformations of lagged autoregression residuals and time series observations," HWWI Research Papers 113, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  47. M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Variable Selection, Estimation and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," DNB Working Papers 250, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  48. Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2010. "Realising the future: forecasting with high-frequency-based volatility (HEAVY) models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 197-231.
  49. Alfred A Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  50. Vladimir Kuzin & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2009. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/32, European University Institute.
  51. Christophe Piette, 2016. "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research 290, National Bank of Belgium.
  52. Proietti, Tommaso, 2011. "The Multistep Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition," Working Papers 09/2011, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
  53. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Maurin, Laurent, 2008. "The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production: perspective from large panel factor models," Working Paper Series 0894, European Central Bank.
  54. Hanslin Grossmann, Sandra & Scheufele, Rolf, 2015. "Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for Swiss exports," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112830, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  55. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, 03.
  56. Bec, F. & Mogliani, M., 2013. "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions: Information or Forecast Combinations?," Working papers 436, Banque de France.
  57. McElroy, Tucker & Wildi, Marc, 2013. "Multi-step-ahead estimation of time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 378-394.
  58. Jed Armstrong, 2015. "The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s output gap indicator suite and its real-time properties," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2015/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  59. Peter Reinhard HANSEN & Allan TIMMERMANN, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/10, European University Institute.
  60. Gary Koop, 2011. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 1117, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  61. Nikolay Robinzonov & Gerhard Tutz & Torsten Hothorn, 2012. "Boosting techniques for nonlinear time series models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(1), pages 99-122, January.
  62. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
  63. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Predective Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy Tests," Departmental Working Papers 200423, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  64. Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  65. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Eliana González & Luis F. Melo & Viviana Monroy & Brayan Rojas, 2009. "A Dynamic Factor Model For The Colombian Inflation," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005273, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  67. Proietti, Tommaso, 2011. "Direct and iterated multistep AR methods for difference stationary processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 266-280, April.
  68. Duarte, Claudia & Rua, Antonio, 2007. "Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 941-953, November.
  69. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through in the major European economies - the role of expectations," Discussion Papers 10-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  70. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Paper 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  71. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  72. Costas Milas & Philip Rothman, 2007. "Out-of-Sample Forecasting of Unemployment Rates with Pooled STVECM Forecasts," Working Paper Series 49_07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  73. Grothe, Magdalena & Meyler, Aidan, 2015. "Inflation forecasts: Are market-based and survey-based measures informative?," Working Paper Series 1865, European Central Bank.
  74. Valentina Aprigliano & Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluigi Mazzi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "A daily indicator of economic growth for the euro area," Working Papers 570, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  75. Paulo Mauricio Sánchez Beltrán & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2013. "Combinación de brechas del producto colombiano," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010973, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  76. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2014. "Improving the Reliability of Real-time Hodrick-Prescott Filtering Using Survey Forecasts," KOF Working papers 14-360, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  77. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function," IAB Discussion Paper 201416, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  78. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004247, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  79. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2015. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3540-3558, July.
  80. Tim Bollerslev & Andrew J. Patton & Rogier Quaedvlieg, 2016. "Modeling and Forecasting (Un)Reliable Realized Covariances for More Reliable Financial Decisions," CREATES Research Papers 2016-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  81. Protić, Milan & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Petković, Dalibor & Abbasi, Almas & Mat Kiah, Miss Laiha & Unar, Jawed Akhtar & Živković, Ljiljana & Raos, Miomir, 2015. "Forecasting of consumers heat load in district heating systems using the support vector machine with a discrete wavelet transform algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 343-351.
  82. Henri Nyberg & Markku Lanne & Erkka Saarinen, 2012. "Does noncausality help in forecasting economic time series?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 2849-2859.
  83. Helmut Herwartz, 2011. "Forecast accuracy and uncertainty in applied econometrics: a recommendation of specific-to-general predictor selection," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 487-510, October.
  84. Michiel De Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick Van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," International Finance Discussion Papers 993, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  85. Falk Brauning & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-042/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  86. McCracken, Michael W. & Ng, Serena, 2015. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Working Papers 2015-12, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 20 Aug 2015.
  87. Fabricio Tourrucôo & João F. Caldeira & Guilherme V. Moura & André A. P. Santos, 2016. "Forecasting The Yield Curve With The Arbitrage-Free Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model: Brazilian Evidence," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42ndd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  88. Harun Özkan & M. Yazgan, 2015. "Is forecasting inflation easier under inflation targeting?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 609-626, March.
  89. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Dissecting the Purchasing Managers’ Index: Are all relevant components included? Are all included components relevant?," KOF Working papers 15-376, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  90. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  91. Anders Bredahl Kock & Timo Teräsvirta, 2010. "Forecasting with nonlinear time series models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  92. Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 329-341, October.
  93. Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Bjørn Eraker & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2011. "Estimating VAR's sampled at mixed or irregular spaced frequencies : a Bayesian approach," Research Working Paper RWP 11-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  94. Milas, Costas & Rothman, Philip, 2008. "Out-of-sample forecasting of unemployment rates with pooled STVECM forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-121.
  95. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 57, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  96. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Timmermann, Allan G, 2009. "Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," CEPR Discussion Papers 7139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  97. Hendry, David F & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  98. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  99. Adam Elbourne & Coen Teulings, 2011. "The potential of a small model," CPB Discussion Paper 193, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  100. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  101. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
  102. Chudik, Alexander & Grossman, Valerie & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  103. Herwartz, Helmut & Golosnoy, Vasyl, 2007. "Semiparametric Approaches to the Prediction of Conditional Correlation Matrices in Finance," Economics Working Papers 2007,23, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  104. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  105. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: A MIDASSO approach," KOF Working papers 15-375, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  106. Benjamin Beckers, 2015. "The Real-Time Predictive Content of Asset Price Bubbles for Macro Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1496, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  107. João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters," Working Papers w201301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  108. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2013. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 78-93, January.
  109. Neville Francis, 2012. "The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shock," 2012 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  110. Pierre Guérin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "Markov-Switching MIDAS Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 45-56, January.
  111. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima, 2014. "Constructing Optimal Density Forecasts From Point Forecast Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 736-757, 08.
  112. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2015. "The State and the Future of Cyprus Macroeconomic Forecasting," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 73-90, June.
  113. Michiel D. de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-028/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  114. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2010. "Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction," Discussion Papers 09-06r, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  115. Klaus Abberger & Boriss Siliverstovs & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Michael Graff, 2014. "The KOF Economic Barometer, Version 2014: A Composite Leading Indicator for the Swiss Business Cycle," KOF Working papers 14-353, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  116. Fornari, Fabio & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
  117. Vermeulen, Philip, 2014. "An evaluation of business survey indices for short-term forecasting: Balance method versus Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 882-897.
  118. Anders Bredahl Kock & Timo Teräsvirta, 2011. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Neural Network Models and Three Automated Model Selection Techniques," CREATES Research Papers 2011-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  119. Calista Cheung & Frédérick Demers, 2007. "Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation," Staff Working Papers 07-8, Bank of Canada.
  120. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
  121. Kock, Anders Bredahl & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2014. "Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007–2009," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 616-631.
  122. Porqueddu Mario & Venditti Fabrizio, 2014. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on euro-area inflation?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 25, September.
  123. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy," CEPR Discussion Papers 8273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  124. Daniel Kaufmann & Rolf Scheufele, 2015. "Business Tendency Surveys and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," KOF Working papers 15-378, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  125. Marie Bessec, 2010. "Étalonnages du taux de croissance du PIB français sur la base des enquêtes de conjoncture," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 193(2), pages 77-99.
  126. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 7008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  127. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  128. Fernando N. de Oliveira, 2015. "Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil using Probabilistic Models," Working Papers Series 402, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  129. Binner, Jane M. & Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Mullineux, Andrew W., 2009. "Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 99-114, February.
  130. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Kerry Patterson & Fabio Rumler, 2014. "The Predictive Performance of Fundamental Inflation Concepts: An Application to the Euro Area and the United States," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2014-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  131. Buncic, Daniel & Gisler, Katja I. M., 2015. "Global Equity Market Volatility Spillovers: A Broader Role for the United States," Economics Working Paper Series 1508, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  132. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 79-98.
  133. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2016. "Combining forecasts from successive data vintages: An application to U.S. growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-74.
  134. Kosei Fukuda, 2010. "Three new empirical perspectives on the Hodrick–Prescott parameter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 713-731, December.
  135. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2016. "Heterogeneous agents, the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-359.
  136. Jose Luis Nolazco & Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2016. "The evasive predictive ability of core inflation," Working Papers 15/34, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  137. Guillaume Chevillon, 2006. "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 257, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  138. Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  139. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "MIDAS versus mixed-frequency VAR: nowcasting GDP in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  140. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015. "Dynamic predictive density combinations for large data sets in economics and finance," Working Paper 2015/12, Norges Bank.
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