IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hit/hitjec/v66y2025i1p46-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

US Credit Spillovers to Small Open Economies : A Proxy-VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • CHANG, Shian
  • ARAI, Natsuki

Abstract

This paper examines the spillovers of US credit supply to small open economies by focusing on three Asian economies, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, from 1999 to 2019.We employ a proxy vector autoregressive model (VAR) to identify credit supply shocks in the US and estimate dynamic responses in these Asian economies. Similar to Mian, Sufi and Verner (2017), we find that output in Asian economies increases in the short run but decreases in the long run in response to a positive credit supply shock. The estimated effects are comparable to the responses to domestic credit expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • CHANG, Shian & ARAI, Natsuki, 2025. "US Credit Spillovers to Small Open Economies : A Proxy-VAR Approach," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 66(1), pages 46-60, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hitjec:v:66:y:2025:i:1:p:46-60
    DOI: 10.15057/hje.2025003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/85875/HJeco0660100460.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/85875/HJeco0660100461.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.15057/hje.2025003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    2. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
    3. Philip Turner, 2014. "The global long-term interest rate, financial risks and policy choices in EMEs," BIS Working Papers 441, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Ohno, Sanae & Shimizu, Junko, 2015. "Do exchange rate arrangements and capital controls influence international capital flows and housing prices in Asia?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Giovanni Favara & Simon Gilchrist & Kurt F. Lewis & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "Updating the Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium," FEDS Notes 2016-10-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Alfaro, Laura & Asis, Gonzalo & Chari, Anusha & Panizza, Ugo, 2019. "Corporate debt, firm size and financial fragility in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    8. Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Madhusudan Mohanty & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "The real effects of household debt in the short and long run," BIS Working Papers 607, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Peter Hördahl & Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2016. "Low long-term interest rates as a global phenomenon," BIS Working Papers 574, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ho, Paul & Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2024. "Averaging impulse responses using prediction pools," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Pablo Aguilar Perez, 2024. "Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024. "Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    5. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    7. Caballero, Julián, 2021. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: All’s well that ends well?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Stefano Fasani & Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni & Valeria Patella & Lorenza Rossi, 2024. "Belief Distortions and Disagreement about Inflation," Working Paper series 24-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised May 2025.
    9. Dinh Trung Nguyen, 2025. "Structural reforms and global value chains: a dynamic analysis of OECD countries based on local projections," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1-31, July.
    10. Philip Barrett & Sonali Das & Giacomo Magistretti & Evgenia Pugacheva & Philippe Wingender, 2023. "Long COVID? Prospects for economic scarring from the pandemic," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 227-242, April.
    11. Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui & Yanrui Wu, 2024. "Political relations and trade: New evidence from Australia, China, and the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 71(3), pages 253-275, July.
    12. Ruhollah Eskandari & Morteza Zamanian, 2023. "Heterogeneous responses to corporate marginal tax rates: Evidence from small and large firms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1018-1047, November.
    13. Lorenzo Garlanda-Longueville, 2025. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Cross-Border Banking between China and Hong Kong," EconomiX Working Papers 2025-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Breitenlechner, Max & Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2022. "Bank liquidity and the propagation of uncertainty in the U.S," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    15. Alfred A. Haug & Tomasz Łyziak & Anna Sznajderska, 2022. "The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance for the Goverment Spending Multiplier in Poland ​," KAE Working Papers 2022-080, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    16. Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
    18. Ayşegül Şahin & Ilyas Siklar, 2025. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Income Distribution? Local Projection Evidence from Turkey," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2025(1), pages 125-151.
    19. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    20. Jörg Breitung & Ralf Brüggemann, 2023. "Projection Estimators for Structural Impulse Responses," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(6), pages 1320-1340, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:hitjec:v:66:y:2025:i:1:p:46-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fehitjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.