Does noncausality help in forecasting economic time series?
In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of univariate noncausal and conventional causal autoregressive models for a comprehensive data set consisting of 170 monthly U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series. The noncausal models consistently outperform the causal models. For a collection of quarterly time series, the improvement in forecast accuracy due to allowing for noncausality is found even greater.
Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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- Markku Lanne & Arto Luoma & Jani Luoto, 2012.
"Bayesian Model Selection And Forecasting In Noncausal Autoregressive Models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 812-830, 08.
- Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009. "Bayesian Model Selection and Forecasting in Noncausal Autoregressive Models," MPRA Paper 23646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2005.
"A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012.
"Optimal forecasting of noncausal autoregressive time series,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 623-631.
- Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010. "Optimal Forecasting of Noncausal Autoregressive Time Series," MPRA Paper 23648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lanne, Markku & Nyberg, Henri & Saarinen, Erkka, 2011. "Forecasting U.S. Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series with Noncausal and Causal AR Models: A Comparison," MPRA Paper 30254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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