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Ian Martin

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Lucas Orchard," NBER Working Papers 17563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Lucas Orchard
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-11-27 01:27:28

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.

    Mentioned in:

    1. What is the Expected Return on the Market? (QJE 2017) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. John Y. Campbell & Can Gao & Ian Martin, 2023. "Debt and Deficits: Fiscal Analysis with Stationary Ratios," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-101, Swiss Finance Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2603-2665, August.
    2. Riccardo Rebonato & Dherminder Kainth & Lionel Melin, 2025. "The Impact of Physical Climate Risk on the Valuation of Global Equity Assets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(4), pages 857-894, April.
    3. Vladimir Andric & Dusko Bodroza & Mihajlo Djukic, 2024. "A Commentary on US Sovereign Debt Persistence and Nonlinear Fiscal Adjustment," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-33, October.

  2. Campbell, John Y & Martin, Ian, 2022. "Sustainability in a Risky World," CEPR Discussion Papers 16219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

  3. Gormsen, Niels J. & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Martin, Ian W.R., 2021. "Implied dividend volatility and expected growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127796, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Cited by:

    1. Jonathon Hazell & Stephan Hobler, 2024. "Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach," Discussion Papers 2439, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2022. "Uncertainty of Firms' Medium-term Outlook during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion papers 22079, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Arteaga-Garavito, Maria Jose & Croce, Mariano M. & Farroni, Paolo & Wolfskeil, Isabella, 2024. "When the markets get CO.V.I.D: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    4. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Benjamin Knox, 2022. "A Stock Return Decomposition Using Observables," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-014r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 31 Jan 2025.
    6. Golez, Benjamin & Matthies, Ben, 2025. "Fed information effects: Evidence from the equity term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

  4. Martin, Ian, 2021. "On the autocorrelation of the stock market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106215, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Cited by:

    1. Weiguang Han & Boyi Zhang & Qianqian Xie & Min Peng & Yanzhao Lai & Jimin Huang, 2023. "Select and Trade: Towards Unified Pair Trading with Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2301.10724, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    2. María T. González-Pérez, 2021. "Lessons from estimating the average option-implied volatility term structure for the Spanish banking sector," Working Papers 2128, Banco de España.
    3. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

  5. Martin, Ian & ,, 2019. "Sentiment and Speculation in a Market with Heterogeneous Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 13857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    2. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Atree, Manish Kumar & Tripathy, Naliniprava, 2025. "Cryptocurrency research: Bibliometric review and content analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Shahsuzan Zakaria & Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid & Dheya Hamood Saif Al-Fakih, 2024. "Financial Risk: Case Study Analysis," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 16(1), pages 250-260.
    5. Li, Rui & Li, Jianping & Zhu, Xiaoqian, 2025. "Downside belief disagreements and financial instability: Evidence from risk factor disclosures in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    6. Hu, Duni & Wang, Hailong, 2024. "Heterogeneous beliefs with preference interdependence and asset pricing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1-37.
    7. Hervé Roche & Juan Sotes-Paladino, 2022. "Sentiment, Mispricing and Excess Volatility in Presence of Institutional Investors," Working Papers 205, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    8. Gao, Can & Martin, Ian, 2021. "Volatility, valuation ratios, and bubbles: An empirical measure of market sentiment," SAFE Working Paper Series 312, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    9. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Croitoru, Benjamin & Jiao, Feng & Lu, Lei, 2024. "Nominal exchange rates and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    11. Zhang, Xuetong & Zhang, Weiguo, 2023. "Information asymmetry, sentiment interactions, and asset price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Zhang, Teng & Li, Jiaqi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2024. "Speculative trading, stock returns and asset pricing anomalies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Driessen, Joost & Koëter, Joren & Wilms, Ole, 2025. "Horizon effects in the pricing kernel: How investors price short-term versus long-term risks," Other publications TiSEM 18d19e20-6d30-4828-9a8e-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Wang, Shikun & Zhu, Shushang & Huang, Yi & Li, Zhongfei, 2024. "Estimation of expected return integrating real-time asset prices implied information and historical data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

  6. Martin, Ian & Gao, Can, 2019. "Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 13454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Qin, Meng & Mirza, Nawazish & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Exploring Bubbles in the Digital Economy: The Case of China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Florin Cornel Dumiter & Florin Turcaș & Ștefania Amalia Nicoară & Cristian Bențe & Marius Boiță, 2023. "The Impact of Sentiment Indices on the Stock Exchange—The Connections between Quantitative Sentiment Indicators, Technical Analysis, and Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-26, July.
    5. Liang, Chao & Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Whether dimensionality reduction techniques can improve the ability of sentiment proxies to predict stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Huiyu Li & Junhua Hu, 2024. "A Hybrid Deep Learning Framework for Stock Price Prediction Considering the Investor Sentiment of Online Forum Enhanced by Popularity," Papers 2405.10584, arXiv.org.
    7. Fabrizio Ghezzi & Anindo Sarkar & Thomas Quistgaard Pedersen & Allan Timmermann, 2025. "Optimal asset allocation and nonlinear return predictability from the dividend-price ratio," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 346(1), pages 415-445, March.
    8. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Serhiy Kozak, 2024. "Equity Term Structures without Dividend Strips Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 4143-4196, December.
    9. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    10. Li, Ye & Wang, Chen, 2025. "The Information Cliff," SocArXiv bf8cx_v1, Center for Open Science.
    11. Ma, Juntao & Li, Chenchen, 2024. "Detecting market bubbles: A generalized LPPLS neural network model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    12. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Chukwuma Dim & Grigory Vilkov, 2023. "Generalized Bounds on the Conditional Expected Excess Return on Individual Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 922-939, February.
    14. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Benjamin Knox, 2022. "A Stock Return Decomposition Using Observables," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-014r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 31 Jan 2025.
    16. Cai, Jin & Pagano, Michael S. & Sedunov, John, 2023. "The role of investor sentiment in bank liquidity creation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    17. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "Information Shocks in the U.S. and Asset Mispricing in Emerging Economies," Working Papers hal-04159830, HAL.
    18. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.

  7. Ian Martin & Stefan Nagel, 2019. "Market Efficiency in the Age of Big Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 8015, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Tao Chen & Shuwen Pi & Qing Sophie Wang, 2025. "Artificial Intelligence and Corporate Investment Efficiency: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies," Working Papers in Economics 25/05, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Bryzgalova, Svetlana & Huang, Jiantao & Julliard, Christian, 2023. "Bayesian solutions for the factor zoo: we just ran two quadrillion models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126151, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Milad Goodarzi & Christoph Meinerding, 2025. "Asset allocation with recursive parameter updating and macroeconomic regime identifiers," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1141-1167, June.
    4. Dohyun Chun & Jongho Kang & Jihun Kim, 2024. "Forecasting returns with machine learning and optimizing global portfolios: evidence from the Korean and U.S. stock markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, December.
    5. Svetlana Bryzgalova & Jiantao Huang & Christian Julliard, 2023. "Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 487-557, February.
    6. Melina & Sukono & Herlina Napitupulu & Norizan Mohamed, 2023. "A Conceptual Model of Investment-Risk Prediction in the Stock Market Using Extreme Value Theory with Machine Learning: A Semisystematic Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Foucault, Thierry & Frésard, Laurent, 2021. "Does Alternative Data Improve Financial Forecasting? The Horizon Effect," CEPR Discussion Papers 15786, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Zhang, Junsheng & Peng, Zezhi & Zeng, Yamin & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Do big data mutual funds outperform?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Wang, Jing & Yu, Huaying & Ren, Daowen & Zhang, Jocelyn, 2023. "Promoting mineral resources consumption efficiency: Evidence from technology of big data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    10. Cao, Sean & Jiang, Wei & Wang, Junbo & Yang, Baozhong, 2024. "From Man vs. Machine to Man + Machine: The art and AI of stock analyses," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    11. Jérôme Dugast & Thierry Foucault, 2020. "Equilibrium Data Mining and Data Abundance," Post-Print hal-02933315, HAL.
    12. Hoang, Daniel & Wiegratz, Kevin, 2022. "Machine learning methods in finance: Recent applications and prospects," Working Paper Series in Economics 158, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    13. Bo Yan & Mengru Liang & Yinxin Zhao, 2024. "Market sentiment and price dynamics in weak markets: A comprehensive empirical analysis of the soybean meal option market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 744-766, May.
    14. Christopher G. Lamoureux & Huacheng Zhang, 2021. "An Empirical Assessment of Characteristics and Optimal Portfolios," Papers 2104.12975, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    15. James Yae & Yang Luo, 2023. "Robust monitoring machine: a machine learning solution for out-of-sample R $$^2$$ 2 -hacking in return predictability monitoring," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, December.
    16. Mohammad Kafeel Wani & Peer Bilal Ahmad, 2025. "One-Inflated Zero-Truncated Poisson Distribution: Statistical Properties and Real Life Applications," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 639-666, April.
    17. Bryan Kelly & Semyon Malamud & Kangying Zhou, 2024. "The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 459-503, February.
    18. Gang Kou & Yang Lu, 2025. "FinTech: a literature review of emerging financial technologies and applications," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-34, December.
    19. Yabu, Takuya, 2023. "On Discrete Probability Distributions to Grasp the Number of Samples in a Population," OSF Preprints yv24f, Center for Open Science.
    20. Ma, Tian & Sheng, Haoyun & Wang, Yuejie, 2024. "Noisy market, machine learning and fundamental momentum," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    21. Xiong Xiong & Chenghao Ruan & Yongqiang Meng, 2025. "Geographical distance and stock price synchronization: evidence from China," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, December.
    22. Afaq Ahmad & A. A. Bhat & S. P. Ahmad & Raheela Jan, 2025. "The Modified Lindley Distribution Through Convex Combination with Applications in Engineering," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 1463-1478, October.
    23. Kaplanski, Guy, 2023. "The race to exploit anomalies and the cost of slow trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    24. Carter Davis, 2023. "The Elasticity of Quantitative Investment," Papers 2303.14533, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    25. Xi Dong & Yan Li & David E. Rapach & Guofu Zhou, 2022. "Anomalies and the Expected Market Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 639-681, February.
    26. Hari Krishna Kalidindi & N. Srinivasu, 2025. "A Comprehensive Study and Research Perception towards Secured Data Sharing for Lung Cancer Detection with Blockchain Technology," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 757-797, April.
    27. Grammig, Joachim & Hanenberg, Constantin & Schlag, Christian & Sönksen, Jantje, 2020. "Diverging roads: Theory-based vs. machine learning-implied stock risk premia," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 130, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    28. Garg, Karan, 2021. "Machines and Markets : Assessing the Impact of Algorithmic Trading on Financial Market Efficiency," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 11, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    29. Goh, Jihoon & Jeon, Byounghyun, 2025. "Which investor corrects mispricing around earnings announcements?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    30. Wu, Fei & Hu, Yan & Shen, Me, 2024. "The color of FinTech: FinTech and corporate green transformation in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    31. Matteo Bagnara, 2024. "Asset Pricing and Machine Learning: A critical review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 27-56, February.
    32. Sonya Georgieva, 2023. "Application of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in the Conduct of Monetary Policy by Central Banks," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 177-199.

  8. Martin, Ian, 2018. "Options and the Gamma Knife," CEPR Discussion Papers 12883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Jianlei Han & Martina Linnenluecke & Zhangxin Liu & Zheyao Pan & Tom Smith, 2019. "A general equilibrium approach to pricing volatility risk," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Martin, Ian & Kremens, Lukas, 2017. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

  9. Martin, Ian & Ross, Stephen, 2018. "Notes on the Yield Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 13176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. MacDonald, Iain L. & Pienaar, Etienne A.D., 2021. "Fitting a reversible Markov chain by maximum likelihood: Converting an awkwardly constrained optimization problem to an unconstrained one," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 561(C).
    2. Francesco Lancia & Alessia Russo & Tim Worrall, 2020. "Optimal Sustainable Intergenerational Insurance," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 300, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    3. Jaroslav Borovicka & John Stachurski, 2019. "Stability of Equilibrium Asset Pricing Models: A Necessary and Sufficient Condition," Papers 1910.00778, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    4. Martin, Ian, 2018. "Options and the Gamma Knife," CEPR Discussion Papers 12883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Skov Jensen, Christian & Lando, David, 2018. "Generalized Recovery," CEPR Discussion Papers 12665, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian & Huetsch, Leon & Mills, Benjamin & Taylor, Alan M., 2024. "Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r∗ in 10 advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2022. "Infinite Debt Rollover in Stochastic Economies," NBER Working Papers 30409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. McMahon, Michael & , & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The Long-Run Information Effect of Central Bank Communication," CEPR Discussion Papers 13438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2024. "Difficulties in testing for capital overaccumulation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), pages 89-114, January.
    10. Horvath, Ferenc, 2025. "Arbitrage-based recovery," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

  10. Ian Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2017. "Averting Catastrophes that Kill," NBER Working Papers 23346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Aurland-Bredesen , Kine Josefine, 2017. "Averting catastrophes in a more complex world," Working Paper Series 06-2017, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business.
    2. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Zuber, 2020. "Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity," Post-Print halshs-01599453, HAL.
    3. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Stéphane Zuber & Marc Fleurbaey, 2020. "Intergenerational equity under catastrophic climate change," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03029883, HAL.
    4. Ian W. R. Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2020. "Welfare Costs of Catastrophes: Lost Consumption and Lost Lives," Working Papers 2020.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Colmenares, Gloria & Löschel, Andreas & Madlener, Reinhard, 2019. "The rebound effect and its representation in energy and climate models," CAWM Discussion Papers 106, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).

  11. Martin, Ian & Kremens, Lukas, 2017. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Albert S. (Pete) & Karamfil Todorov, 2023. "The cumulant risk premium," BIS Working Papers 1128, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Gordon Y. Liao & Tony Zhang, 2020. "The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 1283, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020. "Business cycles and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
    4. Martin McCarthy, Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data," LCERPA Working Papers jc0148, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Oct 2024.
    5. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2020. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," NBER Working Papers 27231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Andrew Lilley & Matteo Maggiori & Brent Neiman & Jesse Schreger, 2019. "Exchange Rate Reconnect," NBER Working Papers 26046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew & Hördahl, Peter, 2023. "Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes," NBER Working Papers 25714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Tjeerd de Vries, 2021. "A Tale of Two Tails: A Model-free Approach to Estimating Disaster Risk Premia and Testing Asset Pricing Models," Papers 2105.08208, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    10. Martin, Ian & Ross, Stephen, 2018. "Notes on the Yield Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 13176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2021. "Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 28447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Eren, Egemen & Malamud, Semyon, 2022. "Dominant currency debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 571-589.
    13. Martin, Ian, 2018. "Options and the Gamma Knife," CEPR Discussion Papers 12883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Martin, Ian, 2021. "On the autocorrelation of the stock market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106215, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Martin, Ian & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "What is the Expected Return on a Stock?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Breen, John David & Hu, Liang, 2021. "The predictive content of oil price and volatility: New evidence on exchange rate forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Chukwuma Dim & Grigory Vilkov, 2023. "Generalized Bounds on the Conditional Expected Excess Return on Individual Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 922-939, February.
    18. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Corbet, Shaen, 2024. "The role of international currency spillovers in shaping exchange rate dynamics in Latin America," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-10.
    19. Jonas Becker & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2024. "Global Bank Lending and Exchange Rates," BIS Working Papers 1161, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Dahlquist, Magnus & Pénasse, Julien, 2022. "The missing risk premium in exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 697-715.
    21. Djeutem, Edouard & Dunbar, Geoffrey R., 2022. "Uncovered return parity: Equity returns and currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    22. Gao, Can & Martin, Ian, 2021. "Volatility, valuation ratios, and bubbles: An empirical measure of market sentiment," SAFE Working Paper Series 312, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    23. Jun Wei, 2020. "Optimal Combination of Currency Assets and Algorithm Simulation under Exchange Rate Risk," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-10, November.
    24. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    25. Fernanda Gonçalves & Giuliano Ferreira & Alex Ferreira & Pedro Scatimburgo, 2022. "Currency returns and systematic risk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 609-647, December.
    26. Fan, Zhenzhen & Londono, Juan M. & Xiao, Xiao, 2022. "Equity tail risk and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 484-503.
    27. Della Corte, Pasquale & Jeanneret, Alexandre & Patelli, Ella D.S., 2023. "A credit-based theory of the currency risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 473-496.
    28. Croitoru, Benjamin & Jiao, Feng & Lu, Lei, 2024. "Nominal exchange rates and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    29. Dennij Mandeij, 2020. "Determination of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Rupiah Against US Dollar and its Volatility: Application of Asset Approach," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 6(6), pages 323-336.

  12. Martin, Ian & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "What is the Expected Return on a Stock?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Paul & Kroencke, Tim, 2019. "The FOMC Risk Shift," CEPR Discussion Papers 14037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Grau-Vera, David & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2024. "Risk-adjusted performance of new economy indices and thematic sectors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Pratish Patel & Andrew Raquel & Savannah Chadwick, 2024. "The cash-secured put-write strategy and the variance risk premium," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 31-50, February.
    4. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Olkhov, Victor, 2023. "The Market-Based Probability of Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 116234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Roberto Marfe & Julien Penasse, 2024. "Measuring Macroeconomic Tail Risk," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 715 JEL Classification: E, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    7. Liu, Hong & Tang, Xiaoxiao & Zhou, Guofu, 2022. "Recovering the FOMC risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 45-68.
    8. Dasol Kim & William Goetzmann & Robert Shiller, 2023. "Crash Narratives," Working Papers 23-10, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    9. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Chukwunweike A. Ogbuabor, 2025. "Effects of entrepreneurship and governance quality on global and regional economic performance: A pathway to sustainable development," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 2842-2863, April.
    10. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119289, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy R., 2023. "Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world," Working Paper Series 2879, European Central Bank.
    12. Marco Pagano & Christian Wagner & Josef Zechner, 2020. "Disaster Resilience and Asset Prices," EIEF Working Papers Series 2008, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Nov 2021.
    13. Tjeerd de Vries, 2021. "A Tale of Two Tails: A Model-free Approach to Estimating Disaster Risk Premia and Testing Asset Pricing Models," Papers 2105.08208, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    14. Angelo Aspris & Ester Félez‐Viñas & Sean Foley & Hamish Malloch & Jiri Svec, 2024. "The market risk premium in Australia: Forward‐looking evidence from the options market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(4), pages 3951-3972, December.
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    18. Geert Bekaert & Eric C. Engstrom & Nancy R. Xu, 2022. "The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 3975-4004, June.
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    63. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor, 2023. "The jump leverage risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
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    65. Mathias Krogh & Giovanni Pellegrino, "undated". "Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0310, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
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    69. Serrano, Pedro & Vaello-Sebastià, Antoni & Vich-Llompart, M. Magdalena, 2024. "The international linkages of market risk perception," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    70. Elkamhi, Redouane & Jo, Chanik, 2023. "Asset holders’ consumption risk and tests of conditional CCAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 220-244.
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    73. Attílio, Luccas Assis & Mollick, André Varella, 2024. "Assessing the baseline model of WTI oil and stock returns under financial volatility and spillover effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    74. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2020. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    75. Kazuhiro Hiraki & George Skiadopoulos, 2018. "The Contribution of Frictions to Expected Returns," Working Papers 874, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    76. Sanford, Anthony, 2024. "Information content of option prices: Comparing analyst forecasts to option-based forecasts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    77. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fulvio Ortu & Francesco Rotondi & Federico Severino, 2024. "On horizon-consistent mean-variance portfolio allocation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 336(1), pages 797-828, May.
    78. Gao, Can & Martin, Ian, 2021. "Volatility, valuation ratios, and bubbles: An empirical measure of market sentiment," SAFE Working Paper Series 312, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    79. Niels J. Gormsen & Ralph S. J. Koijen & Ian W. R. Martin, 2021. "Implied Dividend Volatility and Expected Growth," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 361-365, May.
    80. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    81. Collin Gilstrap & Alex Petkevich & Pavel Teterin & Kainan Wang, 2024. "Lever up! An analysis of options trading in leveraged ETFs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 986-1002, June.
    82. Berkman, Henk & Malloch, Hamish, 2023. "Stock valuation during the COVID-19 pandemic: An explanation using option-based discount rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    83. Della Corte, Pasquale & Jeanneret, Alexandre & Patelli, Ella D.S., 2023. "A credit-based theory of the currency risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 473-496.
    84. Ren‐Raw Chen & Pei‐Lin Hsieh & Jeffrey Huang & Xiaowei Li, 2023. "Predictive power of the implied volatility term structure in the fixed‐income market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 349-383, March.
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  13. Martin, Ian, 2015. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Paul & Kroencke, Tim, 2019. "The FOMC Risk Shift," CEPR Discussion Papers 14037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Horvath, Jaroslav, 2019. "Isolating the disaster risk premium with equity options," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 138-148.
    3. Grau-Vera, David & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2024. "Risk-adjusted performance of new economy indices and thematic sectors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Susanto Basu & Giacomo Candian & Ryan Chahrour & Rosen Valchev, 2021. "Risky Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 28693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pratish Patel & Andrew Raquel & Savannah Chadwick, 2024. "The cash-secured put-write strategy and the variance risk premium," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 31-50, February.
    6. Grace Xing Hu & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang & Haoxiang Zhu, 2019. "Premium for Heightened Uncertainty: Explaining Pre-Announcement Market Returns," NBER Working Papers 25817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "The yield curve and the stock market: Mind the long run," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Manuel Ammann & Alexander Feser, 2019. "Robust Estimation of Risk-Neutral Moments," Working Papers on Finance 1902, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    10. Roberto Marfe & Julien Penasse, 2024. "Measuring Macroeconomic Tail Risk," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 715 JEL Classification: E, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    11. Jeffrey Hoopes & Patrick Langetieg & Stefan Nagel & Daniel Reck & Joel Slemrod & Bryan Stuart, 2016. "Who Sold During the Crash of 2008-9? Evidence from Tax-Return Data on Daily Sales of Stock," NBER Working Papers 22209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Joao Henrique Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2017. "A Bootstrap Approach for Generalized Autocontour Testing. Implications for VIX Forecast Densities," Working Papers 201709, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    13. Liu, Hong & Tang, Xiaoxiao & Zhou, Guofu, 2022. "Recovering the FOMC risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 45-68.
    14. Andrew Lilley & Matteo Maggiori & Brent Neiman & Jesse Schreger, 2019. "Exchange Rate Reconnect," NBER Working Papers 26046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Dasol Kim & William Goetzmann & Robert Shiller, 2023. "Crash Narratives," Working Papers 23-10, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    16. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119289, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy R., 2023. "Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world," Working Paper Series 2879, European Central Bank.
    18. Marco Pagano & Christian Wagner & Josef Zechner, 2020. "Disaster Resilience and Asset Prices," EIEF Working Papers Series 2008, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Nov 2021.
    19. Juan M. Londono & Nancy R. Xu, 2021. "The Global Determinants of International Equity Risk Premiums," International Finance Discussion Papers 1318, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Carole Bernard & Oleg Bondarenko & Steven Vanduffel, 2021. "A model-free approach to multivariate option pricing," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 135-155, July.
    21. Tjeerd de Vries, 2021. "A Tale of Two Tails: A Model-free Approach to Estimating Disaster Risk Premia and Testing Asset Pricing Models," Papers 2105.08208, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    22. Angelo Aspris & Ester Félez‐Viñas & Sean Foley & Hamish Malloch & Jiri Svec, 2024. "The market risk premium in Australia: Forward‐looking evidence from the options market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(4), pages 3951-3972, December.
    23. Gormsen, Niels Joachim & Jensen, Christian Skov, 2024. "Conditional risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    24. Almeida, Caio & Freire, Gustavo, 2022. "Pricing of index options in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 174-205.
    25. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht & Min Wei, 2020. "Flights to Safety," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 689-746.
    26. Anna Cieslak & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2020. "The Economics of the Fed Put," NBER Working Papers 26894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    28. Simcha Barkai, 2020. "Declining Labor and Capital Shares," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2421-2463, October.
    29. Adrian, Tobias & Vogt, Erik & Stackman, Daniel, 2019. "Global Price of Risk and Stabilization Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 13435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Foley, Sean & Li, Simeng & Malloch, Hamish & Svec, Jiri, 2022. "What is the expected return on Bitcoin? Extracting the term structure of returns from options prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    31. Geert Bekaert & Eric C. Engstrom & Nancy R. Xu, 2022. "The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 3975-4004, June.
    32. Liu, Yan, 2021. "Index option returns and generalized entropy bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 1015-1036.
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    34. Yamazaki, Akira, 2025. "Subjective probability distributions of nonlinear payoffs: Recovering option payoff, agent’s utility, and pricing kernel distributions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
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  14. Pindyck, Robert S. & Martin, Ian, 2015. "Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis," CEPR Discussion Papers 10730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles I. Jones, 2025. "How Much Should We Spend to Reduce AI's Existential Risk?," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rick Van der Ploeg & Aart de Zeeuw, 2018. "Pricing Carbon and Adjusting Capital to Fend off Climate Catastrophes," OxCarre Working Papers 207, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Aurland-Bredesen , Kine Josefine, 2017. "Averting catastrophes in a more complex world," Working Paper Series 06-2017, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business.
    4. Rachel Glennerster & Christopher M. Snyder & Brandon Joel Tan, 2022. "Calculating the Costs and Benefits of Advance Preparations for Future Pandemics," NBER Working Papers 30565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David Anthoff & Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Testing the Dismal Theorem," CESifo Working Paper Series 8939, CESifo.
    6. Mathews, Shilpita & Surminski, Swenja & Roezer, Viktor, 2021. "The risk of corporate lock-in to future physical climate risks: the case of flood risk in England and Wales," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112801, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Robert S. Pindyck, 2016. "The Social Cost of Carbon Revisited," NBER Working Papers 22807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Maria Arvaniti & Chandra K. Krishnamurthy & Anne-Sophie Crépin, 2019. "Time-consistent resource management with regime shifts," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/329, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    9. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2024. "Land-use, climate change and the emergence of infectious diseases: A synthesis," DEOS Working Papers 2409, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    10. Ian Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2017. "Averting Catastrophes that Kill," NBER Working Papers 23346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 393-416, July.
    12. Vislie, Jon, 2017. "Resource Extraction and Uncertain Tipping Points," Memorandum 03/2017, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    13. Ian W. R. Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2020. "Welfare Costs of Catastrophes: Lost Consumption and Lost Lives," Working Papers 2020.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Sureth Michael & Kalkuhl Matthias & Edenhofer Ottmar & Rockström Johan, 2023. "A Welfare Economic Approach to Planetary Boundaries," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(5), pages 477-542, October.
    15. Martin, Ian & Pindyck, R. S., 2015. "Averting catastrophes: the strange economics of Scylla and Charybdis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62139, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Thomas Douenne, 2020. "Disaster risks, disaster strikes, and economic growth: The role of preferences," Post-Print halshs-02973075, HAL.
    17. Oliver D. Bettis & Simon Dietz & Nick G. Silver, 2017. "The risk of climate ruin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 109-118, January.
    18. Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kriström, 2015. "On the Social Cost of Water-Related Disasters," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(03), pages 1-26.
    19. Marco A Palma & Samir Huseynov & Rodolfo M Nayga Jr., 2022. "Health versus income amid COVID-19: What do people value more?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(5), pages 1-14, May.
    20. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.
    21. Samuel G. Hanson & David S. Scharfstein & Adi Sunderam, 2016. "Fiscal Risk and the Portfolio of Government Programs," NBER Working Papers 22763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Growiec, Jakub & Prettner, Klaus, 2025. "The Paradox of Doom: Acknowledging Extinction Risk Reduces the Incentive to Prevent It," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 386, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    23. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Stéphane Zuber & Marc Fleurbaey, 2023. "Opposite ethical views converge under the threat of catastrophic climate change," PSE Working Papers halshs-04158009, HAL.
    24. Besley, Tim & Dixit, Avinash K., 2017. "Comparing Alternative Policies Against Environmental Catastrophes," CEPR Discussion Papers 11802, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Can Askan Mavi, 2019. "Can harmful events be another source of environmental traps?," CEE-M Working Papers halshs-02141789, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    26. Can Askan Mavi, 2017. "Can a hazardous event be another source of poverty traps ?," Working Papers 2017.14, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    27. Marshall Burke & Melanie Craxton & Charles D. Kolstad & Chikara Onda, 2016. "Some Research Challenges In The Economics Of Climate Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-14, May.
    28. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
    29. Mark Pennington, 2021. "Hayek on complexity, uncertainty and pandemic response," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 203-220, June.
    30. Yew-Kwang Ng, 2018. "Global Extinction and Animal Welfare: Two Priorities for Effective Altruism," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1808, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    31. Kolb, Aaron & Conitzer, Vincent, 2020. "Crying about a strategic wolf: A theory of crime and warning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    32. Braun, Alexander & Braun, Julia & Weigert, Florian, 2023. "Extreme weather risk and the cost of equity," CFR Working Papers 23-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    33. Mathews, Shilpita & Surminski, Swenja & Roezer, Viktor, 2021. "The risk of corporate lock-in to future physical climate risks: the case of flood risk in England and Wales," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112807, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    34. Mavi, Can Askan, 2020. "Can harmful events be another source of environmental traps?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 29-46.
    35. Harrison Hong & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Mitigating Disaster Risks in the Age of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 27066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Fankhauser, Samuel & Kotsch, Raphaela & Srivastav, Sugandha, 2020. "The readiness of industry for a transformative recovery from COVID 19," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106995, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    37. Kine Josefine Aurland-Bredesen, 2020. "The Benefit-Cost Ratio as a Decision Criteria When Managing Catastrophes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(2), pages 345-363, October.
    38. Trond G. Husby & Elco E. Koks, 2017. "Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 287-305, May.
    39. Roberto Burguet & József Sákovics, 2019. "Personalized prices and uncertainty in monopsony," Working Papers 2019-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    40. E.V. Popov, 2021. "Drivers of the Economy in the Context of the Coronavirus Pandemic," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 20(1), pages 5-30.
    41. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2023. "Natural world preservation and infectious diseases: Land-use, climate change and innovation," DEOS Working Papers 2319, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    42. Ramiro de Ávila Peres, 2024. "Social Discounting and the Tragedy of the Horizon: from the Stern-Nordhaus debate to target-consistent prices," Working Papers Series 593, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    43. Steven D. Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2018. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Yacov Tsur & Amos Zemel, 2017. "Coping with Multiple Catastrophic Threats," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 175-196, September.
    45. Wonjun Chang & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2017. "Catastrophic Thresholds, Bayesian Learning And The Robustness Of Climate Policy Recommendations," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-23, November.
    46. Can Askan Mavi, 2020. "Can harmful events be another source of environmental traps?," Post-Print hal-02880592, HAL.
    47. Rheinberger, Christoph & Treich, Nicolas, 2016. "Attitudes Toward Catastrophe," TSE Working Papers 16-635, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    48. Gerard Meijden & Frederick Ploeg & Cees Withagen, 2017. "Frontiers of Climate Change Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 1-14, September.
    49. Wrzaczek, Stefan & Kuhn, Michael & Frankovic, Ivan, 2019. "Using age-structure for a multi-stage optimal control model with random switching time," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 06/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    50. Heyen, Daniel & Goeschl, Timo & Wiesenfarth , Boris, 2015. "Risk Assessment under Ambiguity: Precautionary Learning vs. Research Pessimism," Working Papers 0605, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    51. Broeders, Dirk & Dimitrov, Daniel & Verhoeven, Niek, 2025. "Climate-linked bonds," Working Paper Series 3011, European Central Bank.
    52. Can Askan Mavi, 2019. "Can harmful events be another source of environmental traps?," Working Papers halshs-02141789, HAL.
    53. Owen Cotton‐Barratt & Max Daniel & Anders Sandberg, 2020. "Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(3), pages 271-282, May.
    54. Dirk Broeders & Daniel Dimitrov & Niek Verhoeven, 2024. "Climate-Linked Bonds," Working Papers 817, DNB.

  15. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Lucas Orchard," NBER Working Papers 17563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2011. "International portfolio diversification is better than you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 289-308, March.
    2. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni & Ma, Chaoqun & Cheng, Fengchao, 2020. "Disagreements with noisy signals and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Diasakos, Theodoros M, 2013. "A Simple Characterization of Dynamic Completeness in Continuous Time," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-91, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Lundtofte, Frederik & Wilhelmsson, Anders, 2011. "Idiosyncratic Risk and Higher-Order Cumulants," Working Papers 2011:33, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    5. Tarek Alexander Hassan, 2010. "Country Size, Currency Areas, and International Asset Returns," 2010 Meeting Papers 365, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Christian Gollier, 2021. "The Welfare Cost of Ignoring the Beta," Working Papers 2021.03, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Herrmann, Sabine & Kleinert, Jörn, 2014. "Lucas paradox and allocation puzzle: Is the euro area different?," Discussion Papers 06/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Rigobon, Roberto, 2016. "Contagion, spillover and interdependence," Working Paper Series 1975, European Central Bank.
    10. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Jaafar, Aziz & Omar, Fatma A. & Salleh, Murizah Osman, 2016. "Can Islamic injunctions indemnify the structural flaws of securitized debt?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 271-286.
    11. Faria, Gonçalo & Kosowski, Robert & Wang, Tianyu, 2022. "The Correlation Risk Premium: International Evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Yu Chen & Thomas Cosimano & Alex Himonas, 2010. "Continuous time one-dimensional asset-pricing models with analytic price–dividend functions," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 42(3), pages 461-503, March.
    13. Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Hailong & Cheng, Fengchao & Hu, Duni, 2017. "Asset pricing and institutional investors with disagreements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 231-248.
    14. Harjoat Bhamra & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2014. "A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of Imperfectly Integrated Financial Markets," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03393013, HAL.
    15. Adam Farago & Erik Hjalmarsson, 2023. "Small Rebalanced Portfolios Often Beat the Market over Long Horizons," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 307-342.
    16. Tarek A. Hassan, 2009. "Country Size, Currency Unions, and International Asset Returns," Working Papers 154, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    17. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron & Colin Ward, 2018. "Shifts in Sectoral Wealth Shares and Risk Premia: What Explains Them?," 2018 Meeting Papers 599, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Rigobon, Roberto & Pavlova, Anna, 2011. "International Macro-Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 8218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2015. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," SAFE Working Paper Series 103, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    20. Elena Asparouhova & Peter Bossaerts & Nilanjan Roy & William Zame, 2013. "‘Lucas’ In The Laboratory," EIEF Working Papers Series 1314, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2013.
    21. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2010. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous investors and portfolio constraints," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43142, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. Chabakauri, Georgy & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2021. "Asset pricing with index investing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 195-216.
    23. Diogo Duarte & Rodolfo Prieto & Marcel Rindisbacher & Yuri F. Saporito, 2022. "Vanishing Contagion Spreads," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 740-772, January.
    24. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
    25. Adem Atmaz & Suleyman Basak, 2018. "Belief Dispersion in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1225-1279, June.
    26. Hansen, Simon Lysbjerg, 2015. "Cross-sectional asset pricing with heterogeneous preferences and beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 125-151.
    27. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2012. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous investors and portfolio constraints," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119046, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    28. Calvet, Laurent E. & Betermier, Sebastien & Jo, Evan, 2019. "A Supply and Demand Approach to Equity Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2015. "Dynamic equilibrium with rare events and heterogeneous Epstein-Zin investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60737, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    30. Paul Ehling & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen, 2014. "Correlations," Working Papers 1413, Banco de España.
    31. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Nikolai Roussanov, 2010. "Composition of Wealth, Conditioning Information, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 16073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Akira Yamazaki, 2017. "Equilibrium Equity Price With Optimal Dividend Policy," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-28, March.
    34. Fischer, Thomas & Lundtofte , Frederik, 2018. "Unequal Returns: Using the Atkinson Index to Measure Financial Risk," Working Papers 2018:25, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    35. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2015. "Dynamic equilibrium with rare events and heterogeneous epstein-zin investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62003, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    36. Bai, Hang & Hou, Kewei & Kung, Howard & Li, Erica X.N. & Zhang, Lu, 2019. "The CAPM strikes back? An equilibrium model with disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 269-298.
    37. Jorge M. Uribe, 2018. "“Scaling Down Downside Risk with Inter-Quantile Semivariances”," IREA Working Papers 201826, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2018.
    38. Christoph Meinerding, 2012. "Asset Allocation And Asset Pricing In The Face Of Systemic Risk: A Literature Overview And Assessment," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(03), pages 1-27.
    39. Curatola, Giuliano, 2017. "Portfolio choice and asset prices when preferences are interdependent," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 197-223.
    40. Vedolin, Andrea, 2012. "Uncertainty and leveraged Lucas Trees: the cross section of equilibrium volatility risk premia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43091, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    41. Jordi Mondria & Climent Quintana‐Domeque, 2013. "Financial Contagion and Attention Allocation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 429-454, May.
    42. Sabine Elmiger, 2019. "CAPM-anomalies: quantitative puzzles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(3), pages 643-667, October.
    43. Sandoval Paucar, Giovanny, 2021. "A Conditional Correlation Analysis For The Colombian Stock Market," MPRA Paper 107963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Ian W. R. Martin, 2008. "Disasters and the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 74-78, May.
    45. Paolo Guasoni & Kwok Chuen Wong, 2020. "Asset prices in segmented and integrated markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 939-980, October.
    46. Santos, Tano & Veronesi, Pietro, 2010. "Habit formation, the cross section of stock returns and the cash-flow risk puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 385-413, November.
    47. Grégoire, Vincent, 2020. "The rise of passive investing and index-linked comovement," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    48. Chabakauri, Georgy & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2021. "Asset pricing with index investing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105749, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    49. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Two-Country World," NBER Working Papers 17564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Chabakauri, Georgy & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2014. "Asset pricing with index investing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60739, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    51. Sandoval Paucar, Giovanny, 2018. "Contagio Financiero: Una Breve Revisión De Literatura [Financial Contagio: A Review Literature]," MPRA Paper 89554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Simon Oh & Jessica A. Wachter, 2018. "Cross-sectional Skewness," NBER Working Papers 25113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Kozak, Serhiy, 2022. "Dynamics of bond and stock returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 188-209.
    54. Sandoval Paucar, Giovanny, 2019. "Modelación de la correlación condicional para el mercado bursátil colombiano: una aplicación de DCC – MGARCH [Modeling of the conditional correlation for the Colombian stock market: a DCC applicati," MPRA Paper 92534, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Mar 2019.
    55. Georgy Chabakauri, 2012. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Investors and Portfolio Constraints," 2012 Meeting Papers 636, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    56. Schneider, Paul, 2019. "An anatomy of the market return," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 325-350.
    57. Curatola, Giuliano, 2016. "Preference evolution and the dynamics of capital markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 128, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    58. Lanlan Luo & Shou Chen & Ziran Zou, 2020. "Determining the Generalized Discount Rate for Risky Projects," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(1), pages 143-158, September.
    59. Akira Yamazaki, 2015. "Asset Pricing With Non-Geometric Type Of Dividends," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-38, December.

  16. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Two-Country World," NBER Working Papers 17564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Mueller, Philippe & Stathopoulos, Andreas & Vedolin, Andrea, 2017. "International correlation risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84140, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2018. "An intermediation-based model of exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 743, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2015. "Not so disconnected: exchange rates and the capital stock," Working Paper Series 2015-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Matteo Maggiori, 2012. "Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies," 2012 Meeting Papers 146, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    6. Bosi, Stefano & Fontaine, Patrice & Le Van, Cuong, 2021. "Long-run equilibrium in international assets and goods markets: Why is the law of one price required?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 891-904.
    7. Thomas Mertens & Tarek Hassan, 2017. "Currency Manipulation," 2017 Meeting Papers 175, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Rabitsch, Katrin, 2014. "An Incomplete Markets Explanation to the UIP Puzzle," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 171, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    9. Robert Ready & Nikolai Roussanov & Colin Ward, 2017. "Commodity Trade and the Carry Trade: A Tale of Two Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2629-2684, December.
    10. Tarek A. Hassan & Rui C. Mano, 2014. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-currency World," NBER Working Papers 20294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2016. "A Risk-based Theory of Exchange Rate Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 22790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Martin, Ian & Kremens, Lukas, 2017. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Antoine GODIN & Sakir-Devrim YILMAZ, 2020. "Modelling Small Open Developing Economies in a Financialized World: A Stock-Flow Consistent Prototype Growth Model," Working Paper 5eb7e0e8-560f-4ce6-91a5-5, Agence française de développement.
    14. Katrin Rabitsch, 2014. "An Incomplete Markets Explanation to the UIP Puzzle," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp171, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Christoph Meinerding, 2012. "Asset Allocation And Asset Pricing In The Face Of Systemic Risk: A Literature Overview And Assessment," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(03), pages 1-27.
    16. Ready, Robert & Roussanov, Nikolai & Ward, Colin, 2017. "After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 69-86.
    17. Zhengyang Jiang, 2019. "US Fiscal Cycle and the Dollar," 2019 Meeting Papers 667, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  17. Ian Martin, 2011. "Simple Variance Swaps," NBER Working Papers 16884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Della Corte, Pasquale & Ramadorai, Tarun & Sarno, Lucio, 2016. "Volatility risk premia and exchange rate predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 21-40.
    2. Giulia Di Nunno & Kk{e}stutis Kubilius & Yuliya Mishura & Anton Yurchenko-Tytarenko, 2023. "From constant to rough: A survey of continuous volatility modeling," Papers 2309.01033, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    3. Tung-Lam Dao & Trung-Tu Nguyen & Cyril Deremble & Yves Lemp'eri`ere & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Potters, 2016. "Tail protection for long investors: Trend convexity at work," Papers 1607.02410, arXiv.org.
    4. Zhou, Yinggang, 2014. "Modeling the joint dynamics of risk-neutral stock index and bond yield volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 216-228.
    5. Lynn Boen & Florence Guillaume, 2020. "Towards a $$\Delta $$Δ-Gamma Sato multivariate model," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-39, April.
    6. Turan G. Bali & Hao Zhou, 2013. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Expected Returns," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1306, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    7. Silvia Muzzioli, 2013. "The Information Content of Option-Based Forecasts of Volatility: Evidence from the Italian Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-46.
    8. Maria Elvira Mancino & Simone Scotti & Giacomo Toscano, 2020. "Is the variance swap rate affine in the spot variance? Evidence from S&P500 data," Papers 2004.04015, arXiv.org.
    9. Bondarenko, Oleg, 2014. "Variance trading and market price of variance risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 81-97.
    10. Jeremy Graveline & Irina Zviadadze & Mikhail Chernov, 2012. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," 2012 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
    12. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Yu-min Yen, 2012. "Bond Variance Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp699, Financial Markets Group.
    13. David Hobson & Martin Klimmek, 2012. "Model-independent hedging strategies for variance swaps," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 611-649, October.
    14. Peter Van Tassel, 2017. "Global Variance Term Premia and Intermediary Risk Appetite," 2017 Meeting Papers 149, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Fernando Alvarez, 2018. "A three mutual fund separation theorem," 2018 Meeting Papers 1066, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. John, Kose & Li, Jingrui, 2021. "COVID-19, volatility dynamics, and sentiment trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2015. "Pricing with finite dimensional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 408-417.
    18. Hoyong Choi & Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin, 2017. "Bond Variance Risk Premiums," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 987-1022.
    19. Eirini Konstantinidi & George Skiadopoulos, 2014. "How Does the Market Variance Risk Premium Vary over Time? Evidence from S&P 500 Variance Swap Investment Returns," Working Papers 732, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    20. Enrique Sentana, 2018. "Volatility, Diversification and Contagion," Working Papers wp2018_1803, CEMFI.
    21. Cui, Zhenyu & Lars Kirkby, J. & Nguyen, Duy, 2017. "A general framework for discretely sampled realized variance derivatives in stochastic volatility models with jumps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 381-400.
    22. Paul Schneider & Christian Wagner & Josef Zechner, 2019. "Low Risk Anomalies?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-50, Swiss Finance Institute.
    23. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.
    24. Cong Ma & Mui Yee Cheok, 2023. "Relationship among Covid-19, stock price and green finance markets pragmatic evidence from volatility dynamics," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 265-295, February.
    25. Stefano De Marco & Caroline Hillairet & Antoine Jacquier, 2013. "Shapes of implied volatility with positive mass at zero," Papers 1310.1020, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    26. Petar Sabtchevsky & Paul Whelan & Andrea Vedolin & Philippe Mueller, 2017. "Variance Risk Premia on Stocks and Bonds," 2017 Meeting Papers 1161, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. John R. Birge, 2015. "OM Forum—Operations and Finance Interactions," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 4-15, February.
    28. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    29. Filipović, Damir & Gourier, Elise & Mancini, Loriano, 2016. "Quadratic variance swap models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 44-68.
    30. Carol Alexander & Johannes Rauch, 2014. "Model-Free Discretisation-Invariant Swaps and S&P 500 Higher-Moment Risk Premia," Papers 1404.1351, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    31. Seungmook Choi & Hongtao Yang, 2019. "Model-Free Implied Volatility under Jump-Diffusion Models," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 16, pages 1-14, May.
    32. Carol Alexander & Johannes Rauch, 2016. "Model-Free Discretisation-Invariant Swap Contracts," Papers 1602.00235, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    33. Warren Bailey & Lin Zheng & Yinggang Zhou, 2012. "What Makes the VIX Tick?," Working Papers 222012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    34. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Two-Country World," NBER Working Papers 17564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. David Hobson & Martin Klimmek, 2011. "Model independent hedging strategies for variance swaps," Papers 1104.4010, arXiv.org, revised May 2011.
    36. Stefano De Marco & Caroline Hillairet & Antoine Jacquier, 2017. "Shapes of implied volatility with positive mass at zero," Working Papers 2017-77, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    37. Karamfil Todorov, 2021. "Passive funds affect prices: evidence from the most ETF-dominated asset classes," BIS Working Papers 952, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Bjørn Eraker & Aoxiang Yang, 2022. "The Price of Higher Order Catastrophe Insurance: The Case of VIX Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3289-3337, December.
    39. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2012. "Sources of Risk in Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 8745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Laurent Barras & Aytek Malkhozov, 2015. "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets," BIS Working Papers 521, Bank for International Settlements.
    41. Buss, Adrian & Vilkov, Grigory & ,, 2018. "Expected Correlation and Future Market Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 12760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  18. Ian Martin, 2010. "The Valuation of Long-Dated Assets," NBER Working Papers 16219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Gollier, Christian, 2013. "A theory of rational short-termism with uncertain betas," TSE Working Papers 13-389, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    2. Guerra Vallejos, Ernesto & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Eugenio & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Juan & Wright, Brian D., 2021. "Solving dynamic stochastic models with multiple occasionally binding constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    3. Campbell, John Y. & Sigalov, Roman, 2022. "Portfolio choice with sustainable spending: A model of reaching for yield," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 188-206.
    4. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jason Beeler & John Y. Campbell, 2009. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," NBER Working Papers 14788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ian Martin, 2013. "The Lucas Orchard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 55-111, January.
    7. Dutt, Tanuj & Humphery-Jenner, Mark, 2013. "Stock return volatility, operating performance and stock returns: International evidence on drivers of the ‘low volatility’ anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 999-1017.
    8. Gollier, Christian, 2017. "Valuation of natural capital under uncertain substitutability," TSE Working Papers 17-813, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Dec 2018.
    9. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Leisen, Dietmar P.J. & Renault, Eric, 2014. "Aggregation of preferences for skewed asset returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 453-489.
    10. Yasuhiro ARIKAWA & Vikas MEHROTRA, 2021. "Distribution of Long-run Stock Returns: Evidence from Japan and the US," Discussion papers 21084, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Asset pricing with uncertain betas: A long-term perspective," IDEI Working Papers 752, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    12. Martin L. Weitzman, 2012. "Rare Disasters, Tail-Hedged Investments, and Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 18496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Haim Levy, 2016. "Aging Population, Retirement, and Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1415-1430, May.
    14. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Lustig, Hanno & Koijen, Ralph, 2012. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Weidong Tian, 2021. "Long Run Law and Entropy," Papers 2111.06238, arXiv.org.
    16. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2018. "Do stocks outperform Treasury bills?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 440-457.
    17. Anna Battauz & Marzia Donno & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2017. "Reaching nirvana with a defaultable asset?," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 40(1), pages 31-52, November.
    18. Arpit Gupta & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Valuing Private Equity Investments Strip by Strip," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3255-3307, December.
    19. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Boons, Martijn & Opp, Christian C. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Dynamic asset (mis)pricing: Build-up versus resolution anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 406-431.
    20. Lu, Yueliang (Jacques) & Tian, Weidong, 2023. "An on-line machine learning return prediction," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    21. Christian Gollier, 2024. "Evaluating sustainability actions under uncertainty: the role of improbable extreme scenarios," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 49(1), pages 59-74, March.
    22. Humphery-Jenner, Mark & Islam, Emdad & Nanda, Vikram & Rahman, Lubna, 2025. "Incentive contracting in the shadow of litigation risk: Evidence from universal demand laws," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

  19. Ian Martin, 2010. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Higher Cumulants," NBER Working Papers 16153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Xavier Gabaix & Samuel Fraiberg & Romain Ranciere & Adrien Verdehlha & Emmanuel Farhi, 2010. "Crash Risk in Currency Market," 2010 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Abderrahim Taamouti & Roméo Tédongap, 2014. "Risk Premium, Variance Premium, and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 219-269.
    3. Gluzberg, Victor E. & Katz, Yuri A., 2019. "Planetary boundaries of consumption growth: Declining social discount rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 362-374.
    4. Gollier, Christian, 2013. "A theory of rational short-termism with uncertain betas," TSE Working Papers 13-389, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Albert S. (Pete) & Karamfil Todorov, 2023. "The cumulant risk premium," BIS Working Papers 1128, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Domino, Krzysztof, 2020. "Multivariate cumulants in outlier detection for financial data analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    7. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
    8. Chaigneau, Pierre & Eeckhoudt, Louis, 2016. "Downside risk neutral probabilities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118980, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Roberto Marfe & Julien Penasse, 2024. "Measuring Macroeconomic Tail Risk," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 715 JEL Classification: E, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    10. Rick van der Ploeg & Ton van den Bremer, 2021. "The risk-adjusted carbon price," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-046/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. David K. Backus & Nina Boyarchenko & Mikhail Chernov, 2016. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Staff Reports 774, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Erickson, Timothy & Jiang, Colin Huan & Whited, Toni M., 2014. "Minimum distance estimation of the errors-in-variables model using linear cumulant equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 211-221.
    13. Jessica Wachter, 2008. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," NBER Working Papers 14386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Charles Engel, 2015. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," NBER Working Papers 21042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Engel, Charles, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Economics Series 265, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    16. Ivan Shaliastovich & George Tauchen, 2010. "Pricing of the Time-Change Risks," Working Papers 10-10, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    17. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Evaluation of long-dated investments under uncertain growth trend, volatility and catastrophes," IDEI Working Papers 754, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Sep 2015.
    18. Lundtofte, Frederik & Wilhelmsson, Anders, 2011. "Idiosyncratic Risk and Higher-Order Cumulants," Working Papers 2011:33, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    19. Bostian, AJ A. & Heinzel, Christoph, 2024. "Precautionary saving under recursive preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    20. Jason Beeler & John Y. Campbell, 2009. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," NBER Working Papers 14788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ian Martin, 2013. "The Lucas Orchard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 55-111, January.
    22. Ian Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2017. "Averting Catastrophes that Kill," NBER Working Papers 23346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Michael Hasler & Roberto Marfè, 2015. "Disaster Recovery and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 410, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    24. Lundtofte, Frederik & Wilhelmsson, Anders, 2013. "Risk premia: Exact solutions vs. log-linear approximations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4256-4264.
    25. Ian W. R. Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2020. "Welfare Costs of Catastrophes: Lost Consumption and Lost Lives," Working Papers 2020.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    26. Caio Almeida & René Garcia, 2017. "Economic Implications of Nonlinear Pricing Kernels," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3361-3380, October.
    27. Bednarek, Ziemowit & Patel, Pratish, 2014. "Moral hazard with the (unlikely) possibility of catastrophes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 386-388.
    28. Hamed Ghanbari & Michael Oancea & Stylianos Perrakis, 2021. "Shedding light on a dark matter: Jump diffusion and option‐implied investor preferences," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), pages 244-286, March.
    29. Christian Gollier & Frederick van der Ploeg & Jiakun Zheng, 2022. "The discounting premium puzzle: survey evidence from professional economists," Economics Series Working Papers 976, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    30. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Evaluation of long-dated assets : The role of parameter uncertainty," TSE Working Papers 12-361, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Sep 2015.
    31. Fu, Qi & So, Jacky Yuk-Chow & Li, Xiaotong, 2024. "Stable paretian distribution, return generating processes and habit formation—The implication for equity premium puzzle," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    32. Martin, Ian & Pindyck, R. S., 2015. "Averting catastrophes: the strange economics of Scylla and Charybdis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62139, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    33. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Serhiy Kozak, 2024. "Equity Term Structures without Dividend Strips Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 4143-4196, December.
    34. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
    35. Lu Zhang & Howard Kung & Hang Bai, 2013. ""Shooting" the CAPM," 2013 Meeting Papers 905, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    36. Emmanuel Farhi & François Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 25282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2011. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1969-2012, December.
    38. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2012. "Exploring the role of the realized return distribution in the formation of the implied volatility smile," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1028-1044.
    39. Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2012. "Skewness Risk and Bond Prices," Cahiers de recherche 17-2012, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    40. Carvajal, Andrés & Zhou, Hang, 2024. "Idiosyncratic risk and the equity premium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    41. Martin, Ian & Kremens, Lukas, 2017. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Andries, Marianne & Bianchi, Milo & Huynh, Karen & Pouget, Sébastien, 2024. "Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence," TSE Working Papers 1561, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    43. Aurland-Bredesen, Kine Josefine, 2021. "The welfare costs of uncertainty: Cross-country evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    44. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2016. "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 22023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. León, Ángel & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel, 2020. "Modeling asset returns under time-varying semi-nonparametric distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    46. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
    47. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Asset pricing with uncertain betas: A long-term perspective," IDEI Working Papers 752, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    48. AJ A. Bostian & Christoph Heinzel, 2018. "Comparative precautionary saving under higher-order risk and recursive utility," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 43(1), pages 95-114, May.
    49. Gourio, François, 2012. "Macroeconomic implications of time-varying risk premia," Working Paper Series 1463, European Central Bank.
    50. Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio & Anh Le & Marius Rodriguez, 2015. "The Price of Variance Risk," NBER Working Papers 21182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Abdelaziz, Fouad Ben & Chibane, Messaoud & Kuhanathan, Ano, 2024. "Can corporate social performance mitigate the risk of extreme stock returns?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    52. Gollier, Christian, 2021. "The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 15919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    53. Georges Dionne & Jingyuan Li & Cédric Okou, 2024. "An alternative representation of the C-CAPM with higher-order risks," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 49(2), pages 194-233, September.
    54. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2015. "Dynamic equilibrium with rare events and heterogeneous Epstein-Zin investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60737, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    55. Akira Yamazaki, 2017. "Equilibrium Equity Price With Optimal Dividend Policy," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-28, March.
    56. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Disaster Risk: Joint Implications for Consumption and Asset Prices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp507, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    57. Fischer, Thomas & Lundtofte , Frederik, 2018. "Unequal Returns: Using the Atkinson Index to Measure Financial Risk," Working Papers 2018:25, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    58. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2015. "Dynamic equilibrium with rare events and heterogeneous epstein-zin investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62003, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    59. Gollier, Christian, 2024. "The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    60. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2019. "Moment spreads in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 598-609.
    61. van der Ploeg, Frederick & ,, 2018. "Pricing Carbon Under Economic and Climactic Risks: Leading-Order Results from Asymptotic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 12642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    62. Verdelhan, Adrien & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Lustig, Hanno, 2012. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    63. Gao, Can & Martin, Ian, 2021. "Volatility, valuation ratios, and bubbles: An empirical measure of market sentiment," SAFE Working Paper Series 312, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    64. Katz, Yuri A., 2017. "Value of the distant future: Model-independent results," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 269-276.
    65. McMahon, Michael & , & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The Long-Run Information Effect of Central Bank Communication," CEPR Discussion Papers 13438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    66. Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2016. "Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs and Jump-Diffusion Asset Dynamics II: Economic Implications," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-28, December.
    67. Kwon, Ji Ho, 2019. "Tail risk and the consumption CAPM," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 69-75.
    68. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications for Consumptions and Asset Prices," CEU Working Papers 2014_2, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    69. Christian Gollier, 2024. "The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle," Post-Print hal-04938709, HAL.
    70. Richard Kihlstrom & Christian Gollier, 2016. "Early resolution of uncertainty and asset prices," 2016 Meeting Papers 475, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    71. Kine Josefine Aurland-Bredesen, 2020. "The Benefit-Cost Ratio as a Decision Criteria When Managing Catastrophes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(2), pages 345-363, October.
    72. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2018. "Risk-neutral moments in the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 583-600.
    73. Ian Martin, 2010. "The Valuation of Long-Dated Assets," NBER Working Papers 16219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    74. Bianchi, Francesco, 2015. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 10520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    75. Wang, Yuanping & Mu, Congming, 2019. "Can ambiguity about rare disasters explain equity premium puzzle?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
    76. Jin E. Zhang & Eric C. Chang & Huimin Zhao, 2020. "Market Excess Returns, Variance and the Third Cumulant," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 605-637, September.
    77. Xiaolan Jia & Xinfeng Ruan & Jin E. Zhang, 2021. "The implied volatility smirk of commodity options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 72-104, January.
    78. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Two-Country World," NBER Working Papers 17564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    79. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    80. Chibane, Messaoud & Poncet, Patrice, 2025. "Housing rare disaster events and asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    81. Ana Belén Alonso-Conde & Javier Rojo-Suárez, 2020. "Nuclear Hazard and Asset Prices: Implications of Nuclear Disasters in the Cross-Sectional Behavior of Stock Returns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-24, November.
    82. Matthieu Gomez, 2023. "Decomposing the Growth of Top Wealth Shares," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 979-1024, May.
    83. Smith, Simon C. & Timmermann, Allan, 2022. "Have risk premia vanished?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 553-576.
    84. Schneider, Paul, 2019. "An anatomy of the market return," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 325-350.
    85. AJ A. Bostian & Christoph Heinzel, 2018. "Comparative precautionary saving under higher-order risk and recursive utility," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 43(1), pages 95-114, May.
    86. Winston Buckley & Sandun Perera, 2019. "Optimal demand in a mispriced asymmetric Carr–Geman–Madan–Yor (CGMY) economy," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, September.
    87. Gollier, Christian, 2018. "Stochastic volatility implies fourth-degree risk dominance: Applications to asset pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 155-171.
    88. Zhanyu Chen & Kai Zhang & Hongbiao Zhao, 2022. "A Skellam market model for loan prime rate options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 525-551, March.

  20. Backus, David & Chernov, Mikhail & Martin, Ian, 2009. "Disasters implied by equity index options," CEPR Discussion Papers 7416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Xavier Gabaix & Samuel Fraiberg & Romain Ranciere & Adrien Verdehlha & Emmanuel Farhi, 2010. "Crash Risk in Currency Market," 2010 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Abderrahim Taamouti & Roméo Tédongap, 2014. "Risk Premium, Variance Premium, and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 219-269.
    3. Chowdhury, Rajib & Doukas, John A. & Mandal, Sonik, 2023. "CEO risk preferences, hedging intensity, and firm value," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Nicole Branger & Patrick Konermann & Christoph Meinerding & Christian Schlag, 2021. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing in Directed Networks [Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 777-818.
    5. Gluzberg, Victor E. & Katz, Yuri A., 2019. "Planetary boundaries of consumption growth: Declining social discount rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 362-374.
    6. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5591-5617, August.
    7. Albert S. (Pete) & Karamfil Todorov, 2023. "The cumulant risk premium," BIS Working Papers 1128, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. João F Gomes & Marco Grotteria & Jessica A Wachter, 2019. "Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 1275-1308.
    9. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
    10. Pratish Patel & Andrew Raquel & Savannah Chadwick, 2024. "The cash-secured put-write strategy and the variance risk premium," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 31-50, February.
    11. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
    12. Stefano Giglio & Ian Dew-Becker & David Berger, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 403, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Lars Peter Hansen, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    14. Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2013. "Tail Risk and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 19375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Roberto Marfe & Julien Penasse, 2024. "Measuring Macroeconomic Tail Risk," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 715 JEL Classification: E, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    16. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Rhys M. Bidder & Matthew E. Smith, 2013. "Doubts and Variability: A Robust Perspective on Exotic Consumption Series," Working Paper Series 2013-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Sönksen, Jantje & Grammig, Joachim, 2021. "Empirical asset pricing with multi-period disaster risk: A simulation-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 805-832.
    19. David K. Backus & Nina Boyarchenko & Mikhail Chernov, 2016. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Staff Reports 774, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Viral V. Acharya & Christian Brownlees & Robert Engle & Farhang Farazmand & Matthew Richardson, 2013. "Measuring Systemic Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Oliviero Roggi & Edward I Altman (ed.), Managing and Measuring Risk Emerging Global Standards and Regulations After the Financial Crisis, chapter 3, pages 65-98, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Chipeniuk, Karsten O. & Walker, Todd B., 2021. "Forward inflation expectations: Evidence from inflation caps and floors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    22. Lars Peter Hansen, 2014. "Nobel Lecture: Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(5), pages 945-987.
    23. Mykola Babiak, 2017. "Generalized Disappointment Aversion, Learning, and Asset Prices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp606, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    24. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Evaluation of long-dated investments under uncertain growth trend, volatility and catastrophes," IDEI Working Papers 754, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Sep 2015.
    25. Hui Chen & Scott Joslin & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2010. "Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 16035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Anisha Ghosh & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Can Rare Events Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle?," 2008 Meeting Papers 1090, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Tjeerd de Vries, 2021. "A Tale of Two Tails: A Model-free Approach to Estimating Disaster Risk Premia and Testing Asset Pricing Models," Papers 2105.08208, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    28. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2012. "Variance bounds on the permanent and transitory components of stochastic discount factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 191-208.
    29. Xu Cheng & Winston Wei Dou & Zhipeng Liao, 2022. "Macro‐Finance Decoupling: Robust Evaluations of Macro Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 685-713, March.
    30. Yang-Ho Park, 2013. "Volatility of volatility and tail risk premiums," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2019. "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2208-2244, June.
    32. Ian W. R. Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2020. "Welfare Costs of Catastrophes: Lost Consumption and Lost Lives," Working Papers 2020.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    33. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley Zin, 2011. "Sources of Entropy in Representative Agent Models," Working Papers 11-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    34. Dergunov, Ilya & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2019. "Extreme inflation and time-varying consumption growth," Discussion Papers 16/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    35. Caio Almeida & René Garcia, 2017. "Economic Implications of Nonlinear Pricing Kernels," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3361-3380, October.
    36. Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig & Alberto Plazzi, 2016. "Equity is Cheap for Large Financial Institutions: The International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Liu, Yan, 2021. "Index option returns and generalized entropy bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 1015-1036.
    38. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Evaluation of long-dated assets : The role of parameter uncertainty," TSE Working Papers 12-361, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Sep 2015.
    39. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2011. "Variance Bounds on the Permanent and Transitory Components of Stochastic Discount Factors," Working Paper Series 2011-11, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    40. Yuya Sasaki & Yulong Wang, 2022. "Fixed-k Inference for Conditional Extremal Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 829-837, April.
    41. Pascal Albert & Michael Herold & Matthias Muck, 2023. "Estimation of rare disaster concerns from option prices—An arbitrage‐free RND‐based smile construction approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1807-1835, December.
    42. Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2016. "Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1278-1319, June.
    43. Martin, Ian & Pindyck, R. S., 2015. "Averting catastrophes: the strange economics of Scylla and Charybdis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62139, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    44. Gourio, François & Siemer, Michael & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2013. "International risk cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 471-484.
    45. Robert Ready & Nikolai Roussanov & Colin Ward, 2017. "Commodity Trade and the Carry Trade: A Tale of Two Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2629-2684, December.
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    47. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2014. "Rare Booms and Disasters in a Multi-sector Endowment Economy," NBER Working Papers 20062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Jeremy Graveline & Irina Zviadadze & Mikhail Chernov, 2012. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," 2012 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    49. Karen K. Lewis & Edith X. Liu, 2017. "Disaster Risk and Asset Returns : An International Perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 1199, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    50. Ron Kaniel & Péter Kondor, 2013. "The Delegated Lucas Tree," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 929-984.
    51. Corsetti, G. & Lipińska, A. & Lombardo, G., 2024. "International Risk Sharing and Wealth Allocation with Higher Order Cumulants," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2422, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    52. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2023. "The Variance Risk Premium in Equilibrium Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 1977-2014.
    53. Robert J. Barro & Gordon Liao, 2017. "Option-pricing formula with disaster risk," AEI Economics Working Papers 966780, American Enterprise Institute.
    54. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
    55. Martin, Ian, 2018. "Options and the Gamma Knife," CEPR Discussion Papers 12883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    56. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," NBER Working Papers 19611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Bryan Kelly & Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2014. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," NBER Working Papers 19812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2016. "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 22023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    59. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
    60. Paul SCHNEIDER, 2014. "Generalized Risk Premia," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-29, Swiss Finance Institute.
    61. Luo, Lanlan & Zou, Ziran & Chen, Shou, 2021. "Discounting for public-private partnership projects in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 218-226.
    62. Qunzi Zhang, 2021. "One hundred years of rare disaster concerns and commodity prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 1891-1915, December.
    63. Gourio, François, 2012. "Macroeconomic implications of time-varying risk premia," Working Paper Series 1463, European Central Bank.
    64. Carbajal-De-Nova, Carolina & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2019. "On the paradigm shift of asset pricing models, before and after the global financial crisis: a literature review," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 15(29), pages 7-38, Primer se.
    65. Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio & Anh Le & Marius Rodriguez, 2015. "The Price of Variance Risk," NBER Working Papers 21182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    66. Grammig, Joachim & Sönksen, Jantje, 2014. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Rare Disaster Risk: A Simulated Method of Moments Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100614, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    67. Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2015. "Learning, confidence, and option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 18-42.
    68. Branger, Nicole & Grüning, Patrick & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2013. "Asset pricing under uncertainty about shock propagation," SAFE Working Paper Series 34, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    69. Horatio Cuesdeanu & Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 2018. "The pricing kernel puzzle: survey and outlook," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 289-329, August.
    70. Nolte, Ingmar & Xu, Qi, 2015. "The economic value of volatility timing with realized jumps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 45-59.
    71. Puhl, Martin & Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2024. "Uncertainty premia for small and large risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    72. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Disaster Risk: Joint Implications for Consumption and Asset Prices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp507, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    73. Jozef Barunik & Michael Ellington, 2020. "Dynamic Network Risk," Papers 2006.04639, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    74. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2015. "Dynamic equilibrium with rare events and heterogeneous epstein-zin investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62003, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    75. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Lustig, Hanno & Koijen, Ralph, 2012. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    76. Weidong Tian, 2021. "Long Run Law and Entropy," Papers 2111.06238, arXiv.org.
    77. Barro, Robert J. & Liao, Gordon Y., 2021. "Rare disaster probability and options pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 750-769.
    78. Dergunov, Ilya & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2022. "Extreme inflation and time-varying expected consumption growth," SAFE Working Paper Series 334, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    79. Semir Ben Ammar, 2020. "Catastrophe Risk and the Implied Volatility Smile," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(2), pages 381-405, June.
    80. Almeida, Caio & Ardison, Kym & Garcia, René, 2020. "Nonparametric assessment of hedge fund performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 349-378.
    81. Heaton, J.B., 2018. "Risk aversion as risk-neutral pessimism: A simple proof," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 70-72.
    82. Karen K. Lewis & Edith X. Liu, 2022. "How Can Asset Prices Value Exchange Rate Wedges?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    83. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2020. "Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    84. Roberto Marfè & Julien Penasse, 2016. "The Time-Varying Risk of Macroeconomic Disasters," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 463, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    85. Koetter, Michael & Noth, Felix & Rehbein, Oliver, 2019. "Borrowers under water! Rare disasters, regional banks, and recovery lending," IWH Discussion Papers 31/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2019.
    86. Christoph Meinerding, 2012. "Asset Allocation And Asset Pricing In The Face Of Systemic Risk: A Literature Overview And Assessment," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(03), pages 1-27.
    87. Wu, Liuren, 2018. "Estimating risk-return relations with analysts price targets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 183-197.
    88. John List & Harald Uhlig, 2017. "Introduction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 1723-1727.
    89. Branger, Nicole & Rodrigues, Paulo & Schlag, Christian, 2018. "Level and slope of volatility smiles in long-run risk models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 95-122.
    90. Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2020. "Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 297-319.
    91. Finer, David Andrew, 2022. "No Shock Waves through Wall Street? Market Responses to the Risk of Nuclear War," Working Papers 318, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    92. Cremers, Martijn & Fleckenstein, Matthias & Gandhi, Priyank, 2021. "Treasury yield implied volatility and real activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 412-435.
    93. Branger, Nicole & Rodrigues, Paulo & Schlag, Christian, 2017. "Level and slope of volatility smiles in Long-Run Risk Models," SAFE Working Paper Series 186, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    94. Fabian Lutzenberger & Benedikt Gleich & Herbert G. Mayer & Christian Stepanek & Andreas W. Rathgeber, 2017. "Metals: resources or financial assets? A multivariate cross-sectional analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 927-958, November.
    95. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    96. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications for Consumptions and Asset Prices," CEU Working Papers 2014_2, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    97. Ufuk Akcigit & Fernando Alvarez & Stephane Bonhomme & George M Constantinides & Douglas W Diamond & Eugene F Fama & David W Galenson & Michael Greenstone & Lars Peter Hansen & Uhlig Harald & James J H, 2017. "The Past, Present, and Future of Economics: A Celebration of the 125-Year Anniversary of the JPE and of Chicago Economics," Natural Field Experiments 00635, The Field Experiments Website.
    98. Ben Ammar, Semir, 2016. "Pricing of Catastrophe Risk and the Implied Volatility Smile," Working Papers on Finance 1617, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    99. Jean‐Jacques Forneron, 2023. "A Sieve‐SMM Estimator for Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 943-977, May.
    100. Karim M. Abadir & Adriana Cornea, 2012. "Approximating Moments by Nonlinear Transformations," Working Paper series 22_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    101. Manela, Asaf & Moreira, Alan, 2017. "News implied volatility and disaster concerns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 137-162.
    102. Ayala Astrid & Blazsek Szabolcs & Escribano Alvaro, 2023. "Anticipating extreme losses using score-driven shape filters," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(4), pages 449-484, September.
    103. Ji Ho Kwon, 2021. "On the factors of Bitcoin’s value at risk," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, December.
    104. Ian Martin, 2010. "The Valuation of Long-Dated Assets," NBER Working Papers 16219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    105. Bianchi, Francesco, 2015. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 10520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    106. Ayala, Astrid & Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Álvaro, 2019. "Score-driven time series models with dynamic shape : an application to the Standard & Poor's 500 index," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28133, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    107. Ayala, Astrid & Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Álvaro, 2017. "Dynamic conditional score models with time-varying location, scale and shape parameters," UC3M Working papers. Economics 25043, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    108. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010. "Asset Return Dynamics Under Bad Environment-Good Environment Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 8150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    109. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Two-Country World," NBER Working Papers 17564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    110. Nicole Branger & Holger Kraft & Christoph Meinerding, 2016. "The Dynamics of Crises and the Equity Premium," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 232-270.
    111. Chibane, Messaoud & Poncet, Patrice, 2025. "Housing rare disaster events and asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    112. George M. Constantinides, 2017. "Asset Pricing: Models and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 1782-1790.
    113. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursua, 2011. "Rare Macroeconomic Disasters," NBER Working Papers 17328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    114. Ready, Robert & Roussanov, Nikolai & Ward, Colin, 2017. "After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 69-86.
    115. Bjørn Eraker & Aoxiang Yang, 2022. "The Price of Higher Order Catastrophe Insurance: The Case of VIX Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3289-3337, December.
    116. Schneider, Paul, 2019. "An anatomy of the market return," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 325-350.
    117. Kwon, Ji Ho, 2020. "Tail behavior of Bitcoin, the dollar, gold and the stock market index," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    118. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2012. "Sources of Risk in Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 8745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    119. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2013. "Deflation Risk," NBER Working Papers 19238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    120. Yang Lu & Michael Siemer, 2013. "Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-85, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    121. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    122. Ayala, Astrid & Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Álvaro, 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of score-driven models with dynamic shape parameters : an application to Monte Carlo value-at-risk," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28638, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    123. Zhanyu Chen & Kai Zhang & Hongbiao Zhao, 2022. "A Skellam market model for loan prime rate options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 525-551, March.
    124. Grammig, Joachim & Sönksen, Jantje, 2014. "Consumption-based asset pricing with rare disaster risk," CFS Working Paper Series 480, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

  21. Martin, Ian W. R. & Pindyck, Robert S., "undated". "Welfare Costs of Catastrophes: Lost Consumption and Lost Lives," 2030 Agenda 308023, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).

    Cited by:

    1. Decerf, Benoit & Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Mahler, Daniel Gerszon & Sterck, Olivier, 2020. "Lives and Livelihoods: Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 13549, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Robert S. Pindyck, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion," NBER Working Papers 27121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021. "Pandemic Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20401, March.
    4. Harrison Hong & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Mitigating Disaster Risks in the Age of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 27066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. St-Amour, Pascal, 2024. "Valuing life over the life cycle," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

Articles

  1. John Y. Campbell & Ian W. R. Martin, 2025. "Sustainability in a Risky World," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 196-212, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Martin, Ian W.R. & Nagel, Stefan, 2022. "Market efficiency in the age of big data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 154-177.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Ian W. R. Martin & Dimitris Papadimitriou, 2022. "Sentiment and Speculation in a Market with Heterogeneous Beliefs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2465-2517, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Ian Martin, 2021. "On the Autocorrelation of the Stock Market [X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 39-52.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Niels J. Gormsen & Ralph S. J. Koijen & Ian W. R. Martin, 2021. "Implied Dividend Volatility and Expected Growth," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 361-365, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Ian W R Martin & Robert S Pindyck, 2021. "Welfare Costs of Catastrophes: Lost Consumption and Lost Lives," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 946-969.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Can Gao & Ian W. R. Martin, 2021. "Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3211-3254, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Lukas Kremens & Ian Martin, 2019. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 810-843, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Martin, Ian W. R. & Ross, Stephen A., 2019. "Notes on the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 689-702.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Ian W. R. Martin & Christian Wagner, 2019. "What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1887-1929, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Ian W. R. Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2015. "Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 2947-2985, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Ian Martin, 2013. "The Lucas Orchard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 55-111, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Ian W. Martin, 2013. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Higher Cumulants," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 745-773.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Ian Martin, 2012. "On the Valuation of Long-Dated Assets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 346-358.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2011. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1969-2012, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Ian W. R. Martin, 2008. "Disasters and the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 74-78, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2010. "Tails, Fears and Risk Premia," Working Papers 10-33, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    2. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Zuber, 2020. "Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity," Post-Print halshs-01599453, HAL.
    4. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Stéphane Zuber & Marc Fleurbaey, 2020. "Intergenerational equity under catastrophic climate change," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03029883, HAL.
    5. Robert S. Pindyck, 2016. "The Social Cost of Carbon Revisited," NBER Working Papers 22807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Shaffer, Sherrill & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhou, Mingming, 2009. "New small firms and dimensions of economic performance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2009, Bank of Finland.
    7. Hui Chen & Scott Joslin & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2010. "Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 16035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ian Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2017. "Averting Catastrophes that Kill," NBER Working Papers 23346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ian W. R. Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2020. "Welfare Costs of Catastrophes: Lost Consumption and Lost Lives," Working Papers 2020.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. Liu, Yan, 2021. "Index option returns and generalized entropy bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 1015-1036.
    11. Martin, Ian & Pindyck, R. S., 2015. "Averting catastrophes: the strange economics of Scylla and Charybdis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62139, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Karen K. Lewis & Edith X. Liu, 2017. "Disaster Risk and Asset Returns : An International Perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 1199, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 26962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Aurland-Bredesen, Kine Josefine, 2021. "The welfare costs of uncertainty: Cross-country evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    15. Qunzi Zhang, 2021. "One hundred years of rare disaster concerns and commodity prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 1891-1915, December.
    16. Martin Andreasen, 2012. "On the Effects of Rare Disasters and Uncertainty Shocks for Risk Premia in Non-Linear DSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 295-316, July.
    17. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
    18. Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2013. "Finance des risques catastrophiques. Le marché américain est en plein bouleversement," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 64(4), pages 615-634.
    19. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 116-151, March.
    20. Robert S. Pindyck, 2014. "Risk and Return in the Design of Environmental Policy," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(3), pages 395-418.
    21. Karim M. Abadir & Adriana Cornea, 2012. "Approximating Moments by Nonlinear Transformations," Working Paper series 22_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    22. Kine Josefine Aurland-Bredesen, 2020. "The Benefit-Cost Ratio as a Decision Criteria When Managing Catastrophes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(2), pages 345-363, October.
    23. Andreasen Martin M. & Zabczyk Pawel, 2015. "Efficient bond price approximations in non-linear equilibrium-based term structure models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-33, February.

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