IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/enreec/v88y2025i4d10.1007_s10640-024-00953-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Physical Climate Risk on the Valuation of Global Equity Assets

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Rebonato

    (EDHEC Risk Climate Institute – EDHEC Business School)

  • Dherminder Kainth

    (EDHEC Risk Climate Institute – EDHEC Business School)

  • Lionel Melin

    (EDHEC Risk Climate Institute – EDHEC Business School)

Abstract

We estimate how the value of a hypothetical global equity index can be affected by physical climate damage for different degrees of aggressiveness of the abatement policy. We find that the magnitude of the difference in shareholder equity valuation with respect to a world without climate damages ranges from a few percentage points to over 40% depending on: the aggressiveness of the abatement policy (the slower the abatement, the greater the difference); the presence of tipping points with relatively low threshold temperatures; and the extent to which rates will decline in states of low consumption (of economic distress). This leaves open the question of the extent to which these differences in valuation are already embedded in equity market prices. We argue that current valuations appear to imply either a very strong and effective abatement action, or that climate change will have a negligible effect on economic output. Since neither assumption should be considered a very likely scenario, we conclude that there is ample potential for equity revaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Rebonato & Dherminder Kainth & Lionel Melin, 2025. "The Impact of Physical Climate Risk on the Valuation of Global Equity Assets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(4), pages 857-894, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:88:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s10640-024-00953-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00953-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10640-024-00953-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10640-024-00953-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kelly, Bryan T. & Pruitt, Seth & Su, Yinan, 2019. "Characteristics are covariances: A unified model of risk and return," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 501-524.
    2. Simon Dietz & Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai & Frank Venmans, 2021. "Are Economists Getting Climate Dynamics Right and Does It Matter?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(5), pages 895-921.
    3. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    4. Martin C. Hänsel & Moritz A. Drupp & Daniel J. A. Johansson & Frikk Nesje & Christian Azar & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Thomas Sterner, 2020. "Climate economics support for the UN climate targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 781-789, August.
    5. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3148-3185.
    7. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2022. "Dissecting green returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 403-424.
    8. Dietz, Simon & Stern, Nicholas, 2015. "Endogenous growth, convexity of damage and climate risk: how Nordhaus’ framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58406, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8686 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803.
    12. Crost, Benjamin & Traeger, Christian P., 2013. "Optimal climate policy: Uncertainty versus Monte Carlo," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 552-558.
    13. Mariia Belaia & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2017. "Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 93-125, May.
    14. Campbell, John Y & Gao, Can & Martin, Ian, 2023. "Debt and Deficits: Fiscal Analysis with Stationary Ratios," CEPR Discussion Papers 18133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Benjamin Crost & Christian P. Traeger, 2014. "Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 631-636, July.
    16. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 600-605, May.
    17. Zeke Hausfather & Glen P. Peters, 2020. "Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading," Nature, Nature, vol. 577(7792), pages 618-620, January.
    18. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    19. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    20. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February.
    21. James Rising & Marco Tedesco & Franziska Piontek & David A. Stainforth, 2022. "The missing risks of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 610(7933), pages 643-651, October.
    22. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    23. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
    24. Riccardo Rebonato & Dherminder Kainth & Lionel Melin & Dominic O’Kane, 2024. "Optimal Climate Policy With Negative Emissions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 27(01), pages 1-28, February.
    25. Derek Lemoine, 2021. "The Climate Risk Premium: How Uncertainty Affects the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 27-57.
    26. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/8686 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Simon Dietz & Nicholas Stern, 2015. "Endogenous Growth, Convexity of Damage and Climate Risk: How Nordhaus' Framework Supports Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(583), pages 574-620, March.
    28. Martin L. Weitzman, 2012. "Rare Disasters, Tail-Hedged Investments, and Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 18496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    30. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    31. Ackerman, Frank & Stanton, Elizabeth A. & Bueno, Ramón, 2010. "Fat tails, exponents, extreme uncertainty: Simulating catastrophe in DICE," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(8), pages 1657-1665, June.
    32. Michael Barnett & William Brock & Lars Peter Hansen & Harrison Hong, 2020. "Pricing Uncertainty Induced by Climate Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1024-1066.
    33. Ivan Rudik, 2020. "Optimal Climate Policy When Damages Are Unknown," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 340-373, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samuel Jovan Okullo, 2020. "Determining the Social Cost of Carbon: Under Damage and Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(1), pages 79-103, January.
    2. McMillan, David G., 2013. "Consumption and stock prices: Evidence from a small international panel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 76-88.
    3. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. McMillan, David G., 2014. "Stock return, dividend growth and consumption growth predictability across markets and time: Implications for stock price movement," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 90-101.
    5. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    6. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    7. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the term structures of bonds and equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    9. Kihlstrom, Richard, 2009. "Risk aversion and the elasticity of substitution in general dynamic portfolio theory: Consistent planning by forward looking, expected utility maximizing investors," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(9-10), pages 634-663, September.
    10. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2024. "Asset Diversification Versus Climate Action," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1323-1355, August.
    11. Georges Dionne & Jingyuan Li & Cedric Okou, 2012. "An Extension of the Consumption-based CAPM Model," Cahiers de recherche 1214, CIRPEE.
    12. Gollier, Christian, 2016. "Evaluation of long-dated assets: The role of parameter uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-83.
    13. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. John Y. Campbell, 2003. "Two Puzzles of Asset Pricing and Their Implications for Investors," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 47(1), pages 48-74, March.
    15. John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1763, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Alfonso Irarrazabal & Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez, 2015. "Time-varying disaster risk models: An empirical assessment of the Rietz-Barro hypothesis," CREATES Research Papers 2015-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. van der Ploeg, Frederick & ,, 2018. "Pricing Carbon Under Economic and Climactic Risks: Leading-Order Results from Asymptotic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 12642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    20. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:88:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s10640-024-00953-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.