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Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion

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Listed:
  • Mariia Belaia
  • Michael Funke
  • Nicole Glanemann

Abstract

Common integrated assessment models produce the counterintuitive result that higher risk aversion does not lead to stronger near-term abatement. This paper re-examines this result with a DICE model that is fully coupled with a thermohaline circulation model. It also features Epstein-Zin utility and uncertainty about climate sensitivity that resolves after some time. The simulations show that aversion to this tipping point risk has little effect. For climate sensitivity of realistic magnitude, a collapse of the circulation occurs in the distant future, which allows acting after learning. Furthermore, the anticipated damage costs are not sufficiently great to justify precautionary measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariia Belaia & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2014. "Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion," CESifo Working Paper Series 4930, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4930
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brock, W. & Xepapadeas, A., 2017. "Climate change policy under polar amplification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 93-112.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    integrated assessment modeling; risk aversion; Epstein-Zin utility; DICE; thermohaline circulation; climate sensitivity; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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