IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v126y2014i3p305-318.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Operationalizing climate targets under learning: An application of cost-risk analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Delf Neubersch
  • Hermann Held
  • Alexander Otto

Abstract

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) determines climate policies that reach a given climate target at minimum welfare losses. However, when applied to temperature targets under climate sensitivity uncertainty, decision-makers might be confronted with normatively unappealing negative expected values of future climate information or even infeasible solutions. To tackle these issues, Cost-Risk Analysis (CRA), that trades-off the costs for mitigating climate change against the risk of exceeding climate targets, has been proposed as an extension of CEA under uncertainty. Here we build on this proposition and develop an axiomatically sound CRA for the context of uncertainty and future learning. The main contributions of this paper are: (i) we show, that a risk-penalty function has to be non-concave to avoid counter-intuitive preferences, (ii) we introduce a universally applicable calibration of the cost-risk trade-off, and (iii) we implement the first application of CRA to a numerical integrated assessment model. We find that for a 2°-target in combination with a 66 % compliance level, the expected value of information in 2015 vs. 2075 is between 0.15 % and 0.66 % of consumption every year, and can reduce expected mitigation costs by about one third. (iv) Finally, we find that the relative importance of the economic over the risk-related contribution increases with the target probability of compliance. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Delf Neubersch & Hermann Held & Alexander Otto, 2014. "Operationalizing climate targets under learning: An application of cost-risk analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 305-318, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:126:y:2014:i:3:p:305-318
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1223-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-014-1223-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-014-1223-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Nelson, J.A., 2013. "Ethics and the economist: What climate change demands of us," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 145-154.
    3. Matthias Schmidt & Alexander Lorenz & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler, 2011. "Climate targets under uncertainty: challenges and remedies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 783-791, February.
    4. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Bauer, Nico & Kriegler, Elmar, 2005. "The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 277-292, August.
    5. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    6. David Anthoff & Richard Tol, 2009. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Balanced Growth Equivalent: An Application of FUND," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 351-367, July.
    7. Louis Eeckhoudt & Philippe Godfroid, 2000. "Risk Aversion and the Value of Information," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 382-388, December.
    8. Alistair Ulph & David Ulph, "undated". "Global Warming, Irreversibility And Learning," ELSE working papers 056, ESRC Centre on Economics Learning and Social Evolution.
    9. Gunnar Luderer & Enrica DeCian & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Marian Leimbach & Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "On the regional distribution of mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 59-78, September.
    10. Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    11. Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro, Marzio Galeotti, Emanuele Massetti, Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "A World induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 13-38.
    12. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    13. Held, Hermann & Kriegler, Elmar & Lessmann, Kai & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2009. "Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 50-61.
    14. Nicholas Stern, 2013. "The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 838-859, September.
    15. Roger A. Blau, 1974. "Stochastic Programming and Decision Analysis: An Apparent Dilemma," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 271-276, November.
    16. Alexander Lorenz & Elmar Kriegler & Hermann Held & Matthias G. W. Schmidt, 2012. "How To Measure The Importance Of Climate Risk For Determining Optimal Global Abatement Policies?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-28.
    17. William D. Nordhaus & David Popp, 1997. "What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-45.
    18. Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1997. "Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 636-650, May.
    19. Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249, December.
    20. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1999. "Bayesian learning, growth, and pollution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 491-518, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dengler, Sebastian & Gerlagh, Reyer & Trautmann, Stefan T. & van de Kuilen, Gijs, 2018. "Climate policy commitment devices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 331-343.
    2. Mariia Belaia & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2017. "Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 93-125, May.
    3. Elnaz Roshan & Mohammad M. Khabbazan & Hermann Held, 2019. "Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities Under Probabilistic Climate Sensitivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 263-279, January.
    4. Luke G. Fitzpatrick & David L. Kelly, 2017. "Probabilistic Stabilization Targets," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 611-657.
    5. Schreyer, Felix & Held, Hermann, 2020. "How to formulate climate targets under uncertainty and anticipated future learning about climate sensitivity? – An axiomatic review of the strong sustainability paradigm," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 54, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    6. Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2018. "Climate Engineering and Abatement: A ‘flat’ Relationship Under Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(2), pages 395-415, February.
    7. Mohammad M. Khabbazan, 2022. "Cost-Risk Analysis Reconsidered—Value of Information on the Climate Sensitivity in the Integrated Assessment Model PRICE," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Held, Hermann, 2020. "Cost Risk Analysisː How Robust Is It in View of Weitzman's Dismal Theorem and Undetermined Risk Functions?," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 55, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    9. Reyer Gerlagh & Thomas Michielsen, 2015. "Moving targets—cost-effective climate policy under scientific uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 519-529, October.
    10. Stein, Lukas & Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi & Held, Hermann, 2020. "Replacing temperature targets by subsidiary targetsː How accurate are they? – Overshooting vs. economic losses," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 57, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    11. Mohammad M. Khabbazan & Sascha Hokamp, 2022. "Decarbonizing the Global Economy—Investigating the Role of Carbon Emission Inertia Using the Integrated Assessment Model MIND," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-19, July.
    12. Roth, Robert & Neubersch, Delf & Held, Hermann, 2020. "Evaluating Delayed Climate Policy by Cost-Risk Analysis," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 53, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad M. Khabbazan, 2022. "Cost-Risk Analysis Reconsidered—Value of Information on the Climate Sensitivity in the Integrated Assessment Model PRICE," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Held, Hermann, 2020. "Cost Risk Analysisː How Robust Is It in View of Weitzman's Dismal Theorem and Undetermined Risk Functions?," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 55, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    3. Hermann Held, 2019. "Cost Risk Analysis: Dynamically Consistent Decision-Making under Climate Targets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 247-261, January.
    4. Roth, Robert & Neubersch, Delf & Held, Hermann, 2020. "Evaluating Delayed Climate Policy by Cost-Risk Analysis," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 53, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    5. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    6. Takanobu Kosugi, 2010. "Assessments of ‘Greenhouse Insurance’: A Methodological Review," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 17(4), pages 345-363, December.
    7. Matthias Schmidt & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler & Alexander Lorenz, 2013. "Climate Policy Under Uncertain and Heterogeneous Climate Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 79-99, January.
    8. Karp, Larry & Zhang, Jiangfeng, 2001. "Bayesian Learning and the Regulation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2fr0783c, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    9. Hwang, In Chang & Reynès, Frédéric & Tol, Richard S.J., 2017. "The effect of learning on climate policy under fat-tailed risk," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-18.
    10. Hübler, Michael & Baumstark, Lavinia & Leimbach, Marian & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Bauer, Nico, 2012. "An integrated assessment model with endogenous growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 118-131.
    11. Simon Dietz & Samuel Fankhauser, 2010. "Environmental prices, uncertainty, and learning," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(2), pages 270-284, Summer.
    12. Cunha-e-Sa, Maria A. & Santos, Vasco, 2008. "Experimentation with accumulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 470-496, February.
    13. Seung-Rae Kim, 2005. "Uncertainty, Learning, and Optimal Technological Portfolios: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach to Climate Change," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 54, Society for Computational Economics.
    14. Richard S. J. Tol & In Chang Hwang & Frédéric Reynès, 2012. "The Effect of Learning on Climate Policy under Fat-tailed Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 5312, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    15. Stein, Lukas & Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi & Held, Hermann, 2020. "Replacing temperature targets by subsidiary targetsː How accurate are they? – Overshooting vs. economic losses," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 57, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    16. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
    17. In Chang Hwang & Richard S. J. Tol & Marjan W. Hofkes, 2019. "Active Learning and Optimal Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1237-1264, August.
    18. Maria Antonieta Cunha-e-Sa & Vasco Santos, 2007. "Experimentation with accumulation," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp503, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    19. Shumilov, Andrei, 2021. "Анализ Неопределенности В Интегрированных Моделях Климата И Экономики: Обзор Литературы [Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment models of the economics of climate change: a literature survey," MPRA Paper 110171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Karp, Larry & Zhang, Jiangfeng, 2006. "Regulation with anticipated learning about environmental damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 259-279, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:126:y:2014:i:3:p:305-318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.