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Climate targets under uncertainty: challenges and remedies

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  • Matthias Schmidt
  • Alexander Lorenz
  • Hermann Held
  • Elmar Kriegler

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  • Matthias Schmidt & Alexander Lorenz & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler, 2011. "Climate targets under uncertainty: challenges and remedies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 783-791, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:104:y:2011:i:3:p:783-791
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9985-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. LANGE Andreas & TREICH Nicolas, 2007. "Uncertainty, Learning and Ambiguity in Economic Models on Climate Policy: Some Classical Results and New Directions," LERNA Working Papers 07.16.237, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    2. Carraro, Carlo & Sgobbi, Alessandra & Bosetti, Valentina & Tavoni, Massimo, 2008. "Delayed Action and Uncertain Targets. How Much Will Climate Policy Cost?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Andrew J. Hogan & James G. Morris & Howard E. Thompson, 1981. "Decision Problems Under Risk and Chance Constrained Programming: Dilemmas in the Transition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(6), pages 698-716, June.
    4. Robert F. Bordley & Stephen M. Pollock, 2009. "A Decision-Analytic Approach to Reliability-Based Design Optimization," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1262-1270, October.
    5. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    6. Held, Hermann & Kriegler, Elmar & Lessmann, Kai & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2009. "Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 50-61.
    7. Andrew J. Hogan & James G. Morris & Howard E. Thompson, 1984. "Reply to Professors Charnes and Cooper Concerning Their Response to "Decision Problems Under Risk and Chance Constrained Programming"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 258-259, February.
    8. Machina, Mark J, 1989. "Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1622-1668, December.
    9. Roger A. Blau, 1974. "Stochastic Programming and Decision Analysis: An Apparent Dilemma," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 271-276, November.
    10. B. O’Neill & Y. Ermoliev & T. Ermolieva, 2006. "Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Coping with Uncertainty, pages 283-300, Springer.
    11. R. Jagannathan, 1985. "Use of Sample Information in Stochastic Recourse and Chance-Constrained Programming Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(1), pages 96-108, January.
    12. Mark J. Eisner & Robert S. Kaplan & John V. Soden, 1971. "Admissible Decision Rules for the E-Model of Chance-Constrained Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(5), pages 337-353, January.
    13. A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1983. "Response to "Decision Problems Under Risk and Chance Constrained Programming: Dilemmas in the Transition"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 750-753, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dengler, Sebastian & Gerlagh, Reyer & Trautmann, Stefan T. & van de Kuilen, Gijs, 2018. "Climate policy commitment devices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 331-343.
    2. Elnaz Roshan & Mohammad M. Khabbazan & Hermann Held, 2019. "Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities Under Probabilistic Climate Sensitivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 263-279, January.
    3. Hermann Held, 2019. "Cost Risk Analysis: Dynamically Consistent Decision-Making under Climate Targets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 247-261, January.
    4. Luke G. Fitzpatrick & David L. Kelly, 2017. "Probabilistic Stabilization Targets," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 611-657.
    5. Schreyer, Felix & Held, Hermann, 2020. "How to formulate climate targets under uncertainty and anticipated future learning about climate sensitivity? – An axiomatic review of the strong sustainability paradigm," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 54, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    6. Mohammad M. Khabbazan, 2022. "Cost-Risk Analysis Reconsidered—Value of Information on the Climate Sensitivity in the Integrated Assessment Model PRICE," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Rickels, Wilfried & Merk, Christine & Honneth, Johannes & Schwinger, Jörg & Quaas, Martin & Oschlies, Andreas, 2019. "Welche Rolle spielen negative Emissionen für die zukünftige Klimapolitik?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 261840, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Held, Hermann, 2020. "Cost Risk Analysisː How Robust Is It in View of Weitzman's Dismal Theorem and Undetermined Risk Functions?," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 55, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    9. Gren, Ing-Marie & Carlsson, Mattias & Elofsson, Katarina & Munnich, Miriam, 2012. "Stochastic carbon sinks for combating carbon dioxide emissions in the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1523-1531.
    10. Reyer Gerlagh & Thomas Michielsen, 2015. "Moving targets—cost-effective climate policy under scientific uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 519-529, October.
    11. Delf Neubersch & Hermann Held & Alexander Otto, 2014. "Operationalizing climate targets under learning: An application of cost-risk analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 305-318, October.
    12. A. Lopez & E. Suckling & F. Otto & A. Lorenz & D. Rowlands & M. Allen, 2015. "Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 15-29, September.
    13. Roth, Robert & Neubersch, Delf & Held, Hermann, 2020. "Evaluating Delayed Climate Policy by Cost-Risk Analysis," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 53, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.

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