Stochastic carbon sinks for combating carbon dioxide emissions in the EU
This paper carries out numerical calculations on the potential of carbon sinks in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and national commitments under conditions of stochastic carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and carbon sequestration by forests. Chance constraint programming is used to analyze the role of stochastic carbon sinks for national and EU-wide compliance costs. The analytical results show that the inclusion of the carbon sink option can reduce costs for low enough marginal cost and risk discount, but also that costless carbon sinks as by-products from forestry are not part of a cost-effective solution under a high reliability concern. Cost savings are reduced due to risk discounting under a reliability concern, in particular when assigning Chebyshev's inequality as compared with a normal probability distribution. It is also shown that the supply of forest sinks on the market depends on the differences in marginal abatement cost between the trading and the non-trading sectors, and in risk discounting between achievements of the ETS cap and the national commitment. Relatively low marginal abatement cost in the non-trading sector and high risk discounting of national commitment achievements increase the supply of sinks in the market and, hence, reduces the equilibrium price. The empirical application illustrates the importance of risk discounting for the magnitude of cost savings obtained from introducing forest carbon sinks in the EU ETS and national commitments.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Melania Michetti & Renato Nunes Rosa, 2011. "Afforestation and Timber Management Compliance Strategies in Climate Policy. A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2011.04, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Lubowski, Ruben N. & Plantinga, Andrew J. & Stavins, Robert N., 2006.
"Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 135-152, March.
- Lubowski, Ruben & Plantinga, Andrew & Stavins, Robert, 2005. "Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks: Econometric Estimation of the Carbon Sequestration Supply Function," Working Paper Series rwp05-001, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Lyubov A. Kurkalova, 2005.
"Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils: Discounting for Uncertainty,"
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications
05-wp388, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Lyubov A. Kurkalova, 2005. "Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils: Discounting for Uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 53(4), pages 375-384, December.
- Peterson, Sonja, 2006. "Uncertainty and economic analysis of climate change : a survey of approaches and findings," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3778, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Shortle, James S. & Horan, Richard D., 2008. "The Economics of Water Quality Trading," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 2(2), pages 101-133, October.
- Elofsson, Katarina, 2003. "Cost-effective reductions of stochastic agricultural loads to the Baltic Sea," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 13-31, November.
- Stavins, Robert, 1997. "Policy Instruments for Climate Change: How Can National Governments Address a Global Problem?," Discussion Papers dp-97-11, Resources For the Future.
- Couture, Stéphane & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2009.
"Forest Management under Fire Risk when Forest Carbon Sequestration Has Value,"
TSE Working Papers
09-005, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Couture, Stéphane & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2011. "Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2002-2011, September.
- StÃ©phane Couture & Arnaud Reynaud, 2009. "Forest Management Under Fire Risk When Forest Carbon Sequestration Has Value," LERNA Working Papers 09.09.285, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
- Robert N. Stavins, 1999. "The Costs of Carbon Sequestration: A Revealed-Preference Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 994-1009, September.
- William D. Nordhaus & David Popp, 1997.
"What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-45.
- William D. Nordhaus & David Popp, 1996. "What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1117, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kato, Edward & Ringler, Claudia & Yesuf, Mahmud & Bryan, Elizabeth, 2009.
"Soil and water conservation technologies: A buffer against production risk in the face of climate change?: Insights from the Nile Basin in Ethiopia,"
IFPRI discussion papers
871, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Edward Kato & Claudia Ringler & Mahmud Yesuf & Elizabeth Bryan, 2011. "Soil and water conservation technologies: a buffer against production risk in the face of climate change? Insights from the Nile basin in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(5), pages 593-604, 09.
- Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tol, Richard S. J., 2009. "The EU 20/20/2020 Targets: An Overview of the EMF22 Assessment," Papers WP325, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Valentina Bosetti & Ruben Lubowski & Alexander Golub & Anil Markandya, 2010.
"Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation,"
- Valentina Bosetti & Ruben Lubowski & Alexander Golub & Anil Markandya, 2009. "Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation," Working Papers 2009.56, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Pizer, William A., 1999. "The optimal choice of climate change policy in the presence of uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 255-287, August.
- Barrett, Scott & Stavins, Robert, 2002.
"Increasing Participation and Compliance in International Climate Change Agreements,"
Working Paper Series
rwp02-031, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Scott Barrett & Robert Stavins, 2003. "Increasing Participation and Compliance in International Climate Change Agreements," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 349-376, December.
- Pyle, David H & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1970. "Safety-First and Expected Utility Maximization in Mean-Standard Deviation Portfolio Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(1), pages 75-81, February.
- Matthias Schmidt & Alexander Lorenz & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler, 2011. "Climate targets under uncertainty: challenges and remedies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 783-791, February.
- McSweeny, William T. & Shortle, James S., 1990. "Probabilistic Cost Effectiveness In Agricultural Nonpoint Pollution Control," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(01), July.
- Held, Hermann & Kriegler, Elmar & Lessmann, Kai & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2009. "Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages S50-S61.
- Anda, Jon & Golub, Alexander & Strukova, Elena, 2009. "Economics of climate change under uncertainty: Benefits of flexibility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1345-1355, April.
- Finn Førsund & Eric NÆvdal, 1998. "Efficiency Gains Under Exchange-Rate Emission Trading," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(4), pages 403-423, December.
- Gren, Ing-Marie & Munnich, Miriam & Carlsson, Mattias & Elofsson, Katarina, 2009. "A numerical model for cost effective mitigation of CO2 in the EU with stochastic carbon sink," Department of Economics publications 9327, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics.
- Antle, John & Capalbo, Susan & Mooney, Sian & Elliott, Edward & Paustian, Keith, 2003. "Spatial heterogeneity, contract design, and the efficiency of carbon sequestration policies for agriculture," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 231-250, September.
- Gerst, Michael D. & Howarth, Richard B. & Borsuk, Mark E., 2010. "Accounting for the risk of extreme outcomes in an integrated assessment of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4540-4548, August.
- Kim, Man-Keun & McCarl, Bruce A., 2009. "Uncertainty Discounting for Land-Based Carbon Sequestration," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(01), April.
- David Bigman, 1996. "Safety-First Criteria and Their Measures of Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 225-235.
- Stankeviciute, Loreta & Kitous, Alban & Criqui, Patrick, 2008. "The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4272-4286, November.
- Ovando, Paola & Caparrós, Alejandro, 2009. "Land use and carbon mitigation in Europe: A survey of the potentials of different alternatives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 992-1003, March.
- Simon Dietz, 2011. "High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 519-541, October.
- Capros, Pantelis & Mantzos, Leonidas & Parousos, Leonidas & Tasios, Nikolaos & Klaassen, Ger & Van Ierland, Tom, 2011. "Analysis of the EU policy package on climate change and renewables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1476-1485, March.
- Alexander Golub & Daiju Narita, 2011. "Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change: Alternative Analytical Approaches," Working Papers 2011.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Loreta Stankeviciute & Alban Kitous & Patrick Criqui, 2008. "The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system," Post-Print halshs-00172290, HAL.
- Kato, E., 2009. "Soil and water conservation technologies: a buffer against production risk in the face of climate change?: insights from the Nile Basin in Ethiopia," IWMI Working Papers H042477, International Water Management Institute.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:5:p:1523-1531. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.