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Cost-effective biodiversity restoration with uncertain growth in forest habitat quality

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  • Gren, Ing-Marie
  • Baxter, Peter
  • Mikusinski, Grzegorz
  • Possingham, Hugh

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model for cost-effective selection of sites for restoring biodiversity when habitat quality develops over time and is uncertain. A safety-first decision criterion is used for ensuring a minimum level of habitats, and this is formulated in a chance-constrained programming framework. The theoretical results show; (i) inclusion of quality growth reduces overall cost for achieving a future biodiversity target from relatively early establishment of habitats, but (ii) consideration of uncertainty in growth increases total cost and delays establishment, and (iii) cost-effective trading of habitat requires exchange rate between sites that varies over time. An empirical application to the red listed umbrella species – white-backed woodpecker – shows that the total cost of achieving habitat targets specified in the Swedish recovery plan is doubled if the target is to be achieved with high reliability, and that equilibrating price on a habitat trading market differs considerably between different quality growth combinations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gren, Ing-Marie & Baxter, Peter & Mikusinski, Grzegorz & Possingham, Hugh, 2014. "Cost-effective biodiversity restoration with uncertain growth in forest habitat quality," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 77-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:foreco:v:20:y:2014:i:1:p:77-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfe.2013.09.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Hualin & He, Yafen & Zhang, Ning & Lu, Hua, 2017. "Spatiotemporal changes and fragmentation of forest land in Jiangxi Province, China," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(PA), pages 4-13.
    2. Jianxin Yang & Jian Gong & Wenwu Tang, 2019. "Prioritizing Spatially Aggregated Cost-Effective Sites in Natural Reserves to Mitigate Human-Induced Threats: A Case Study of the Qinghai Plateau, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Elofsson, Katarina & Hiron, Matthew & Kačergytė, Ineta & Pärt, Tomas, 2023. "Ecological compensation of stochastic wetland biodiversity: National or regional policy schemes?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cost-effective biodiversity restoration; Uncertainty; Spatial and temporal heterogeneity; Chance constrained programming; White-backed woodpecker in Sweden;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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