IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/envsyd/v44y2024i1d10.1007_s10669-023-09914-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Parameter uncertainties in evaluating climate policies with dynamic integrated climate-economy model

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammed Sütçü

    (Abdullah Gul University)

Abstract

Climate change is a complex issue with significant scientific and socio-economic uncertainties, making it difficult to assess the effectiveness of climate policies. Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy Models (DICE models) have been widely used to evaluate the impact of different climate policies. However, since climate change, long-term economic development, and their interactions are highly uncertain, an accurate assessment of investments in climate change mitigation requires appropriate consideration of climatic and economic uncertainties. Moreover, the results of these models are highly dependent on input parameters and assumptions, which can have significant uncertainties. To accurately assess the impact of climate policies, it is crucial to incorporate uncertainties into these models. In this paper, we explore the impact of parameter uncertainties on the evaluation of climate policies using DICE models. Our goal is to understand whether uncertainty significantly affects decision-making, particularly in global warming policy decisions. By integrating climatic and economic uncertainties into the DICE model, we seek to identify the cumulative impact of uncertainty on climate change. Overall, this paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of the challenges associated with evaluating climate policies using DICE models, and to inform the development of more effective policy measures to address the urgent challenge of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammed Sütçü, 2024. "Parameter uncertainties in evaluating climate policies with dynamic integrated climate-economy model," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 69-84, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:44:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10669-023-09914-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-023-09914-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10669-023-09914-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10669-023-09914-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthias Schmidt & Alexander Lorenz & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler, 2011. "Climate targets under uncertainty: challenges and remedies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 783-791, February.
    2. Michael Barnett & William Brock & Lars Peter Hansen, 2022. "Climate Change Uncertainty Spillover in the Macroeconomy," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 253-320.
    3. Howard Kunreuther & Geoffrey Heal & Myles Allen & Ottmar Edenhofer & Christopher B. Field & Gary Yohe, 2013. "Risk management and climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 447-450, May.
    4. Michael Barnett, 2023. "Climate Change and Uncertainty: An Asset Pricing Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7562-7584, December.
    5. Kevin Rennert & Frank Errickson & Brian C. Prest & Lisa Rennels & Richard G. Newell & William Pizer & Cora Kingdon & Jordan Wingenroth & Roger Cooke & Bryan Parthum & David Smith & Kevin Cromar & Dela, 2022. "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2," Nature, Nature, vol. 610(7933), pages 687-692, October.
    6. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    7. Nordhaus, William D, 1977. "Economic Growth and Climate: The Carbon Dioxide Problem," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 341-346, February.
    8. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2011. "Environmental policy under model uncertainty: a robust optimal control approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 225-239, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adrien Bilal & James H. Stock, 2025. "Macroeconomics and Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 33567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Yiyong Cai & Warwick McKibbin, 2015. "Uncertainty and International Climate Change Negotiations," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(1), pages 101-115, March.
    3. Qian Zhou & Feng Gui & Benxuan Zhao & Jingyi Liu & Huiwen Cai & Kaida Xu & Sheng Zhao, 2024. "Examining the Social Costs of Carbon Emissions and the Ecosystem Service Value in Island Ecosystems: An Analysis of the Zhoushan Archipelago," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron & Stern, Nicholas, 2018. "Pigou pushes preferences: decarbonisation and endogenous values," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-16, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    5. Xueke Li & Amanda H. Lynch, 2023. "New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-16, April.
    6. Shabir Ahmad Hakim & Shaista. Alvi, 2025. "Bank lending and environmental quality in Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Joseph E. Aldy & Robert N. Stavins, 2021. "Rolling The Dice In The Corridors Of Power: William Nordhaus’S Impacts On Climate Change Policy," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert Mendelsohn (ed.), CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS Commemoration of Nobel Prize for William Nordhaus, chapter 1, pages 1-18, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Laurent JODOIN, 2020. "Nordhaus on philosophy in climate change economics," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 81-90, November.
    9. Agliardi, Elettra & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Temperature targets, deep uncertainty and extreme events in the design of optimal climate policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Nordhaus, William, 2013. "Integrated Economic and Climate Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1069-1131, Elsevier.
    11. Torres-Brito, David Israel & Cruz-Aké, Salvador & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2023. "Impacto de los contaminantes por gases de efecto invernadero en el crecimiento económico en 86 países (1990-2019): Sobre la curva inversa de Kuznets [Impact of the Effect of Greenhouse Gas Pollutan," MPRA Paper 119031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Weber, Thomas A. & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2010. "Carbon markets and technological innovation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 115-132, September.
    13. Md Lutfur Rahman & Sudipta Bose, 2025. "Firm-level Climate Vulnerability and Corporate Risk-taking: International Evidence," Working Papers DP-2024-36, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    14. Camacho, Carmen & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín, 2015. "Land use dynamics and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 96-118.
    15. Gren, Ing-Marie & Carlsson, Mattias & Elofsson, Katarina & Munnich, Miriam, 2012. "Stochastic carbon sinks for combating carbon dioxide emissions in the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1523-1531.
    16. Iwona Bąk & Anna Barwińska-Małajowicz & Grażyna Wolska & Paweł Walawender & Paweł Hydzik, 2021. "Is the European Union Making Progress on Energy Decarbonisation While Moving towards Sustainable Development?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-18, June.
    17. Solomon Hsiang & Robert E. Kopp, 2018. "An Economist's Guide to Climate Change Science," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 3-32, Fall.
    18. Beaulieu, Jake & Kopits, Elizabeth & Moore, Chris C. & Parthum, Bryan M., 2024. "The Climate Benefits of Improving Water Quality," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 348911, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    19. Michael Donadelli & Patrick Grüning & Steffen Hitzemann, 2019. "Understanding Macro and Asset Price Dynamics During the Climate Transition," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 18, Bank of Lithuania.
    20. A. Lopez & E. Suckling & F. Otto & A. Lorenz & D. Rowlands & M. Allen, 2015. "Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 15-29, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:44:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10669-023-09914-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.