Uncertainty and International Climate Change Negotiations
This paper explores the failure of countries to coordinate climate policies as an equilibrium outcome of a game where countries optimize in the face of both unprecedented economic and environmental uncertainty. Because issues associated with climate change are historically unprecedented and thus policymakers do not have a prior distribution over possible outcomes, the usual theoretical framework based on governments maximizing expected utility may not be suitable for analyzing climate policy choice. Under an alternative plausible assumption that policymakers act strategically but choose the policy that incurs the highest possible gain in the worst-case scenario, this paper shows how coordination can be inferior to unilateralism in both carbon mitigation and economic loss minimization. In order to make progress in reaching a global agreement in this situation, additional restrictions that help to reduce uncertainty can lead to a coordinated outcome that benefits the environment and minimizes economic cost.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 2601|
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2010.
"Risk and Global Economic Architecture: Why Full Financial Integration May Be Undesirable,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 388-392, May.
- Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2010. "Risk and Global Economic Architecture: Why Full Financial Integration May Be Undesirable," NBER Working Papers 15718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2012.
"GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages,"
Journal of Public Economic Theory,
Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(2), pages 221-244, 03.
- Weitzman, Martin L., 2012. "GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages," Scholarly Articles 11315435, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2010. "GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages," NBER Working Papers 16136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rockett, Katharine E, 1988. "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policymakers Do Not Agree on the True Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 318-340, June.
- Matthew B. Canzoneri & Dale W. Henderson, 1991. "Monetary Policy in Interdependent Economies: A Game-Theoretic Approach," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031787, December.
- Tabellini, Guido, 1990.
"Domestic politics and the international coordination of fiscal policies,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 245-265, May.
- Guido Tabellini, 1988. "Domestic Politics and the International Coordination of Fiscal Policies," UCLA Economics Working Papers 529, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Tabellini, Guido, 1988. "Domestic Politics and the International Coordination of Fiscal Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ghosh, Atish R. & Ghosh, Swati R., 1991.
"Does model uncertainty really preclude international policy coordination?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 325-340, November.
- Ghosh, A.R. & Ghosh, S.R., 1990. "Does Model Uncertainty Really Preclude International Policy Coordination?," Papers 47, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May.
- Uzawa,Hirofumi, 2009.
"Economic Theory and Global Warming,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521066594, December.
- Paul R. Masson, 1992.
"Portfolio Preference Uncertainty and Gains from Policy Coordination,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 101-120, March.
- Paul R Masson, 1991. "Portfolio Preference Uncertainty and Gains From Policy Coordination," IMF Working Papers 91/64, International Monetary Fund.
- Nordhaus, William D & Yang, Zili, 1996. "A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change Strategies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 741-765, September.
- Hamada, Koichi, 1976. "A Strategic Analysis of Monetary Interdependence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 677-700, August.
- Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 1-76.
- Schipper, Lee, 2008. "Automobile Fuel; Economy and CO2 Emissions in Industrialized Countries: Troubling Trends through 2005/6," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2t9200xq, University of California Transportation Center.
- Hoel, M., 1989.
"Global Environmental Problems: The Effects Of Unilateral Actions Taken By One Country,"
11/1989, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Hoel, Michael, 1991. "Global environmental problems: The effects of unilateral actions taken by one country," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 55-70, January.
- Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2002. "The Role of Economics in Climate Change Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 107-129, Spring.
- Ghosh, Atish R., 1986. "International policy coordination in an uncertain world," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 271-276.
- Patrick J. Kehoe, 1989. "Policy Cooperation Among Benevolent Governments May Be Undesirable," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 289-296.
- Holtham, Gerald & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 1987. "International Policy Cooperation and Model Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 190, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1997. "Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 636-650, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.