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Valuation of natural capital under uncertain substitutability

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  • Gollier, Christian

Abstract

Natural capital is complex to price notably because of the high uncertainties surrounding the substitutability of its future ecosystem services. We examine a two-tree Lucas economy where both the economic growth and the degree of substitutability are uncertain. We show that the uncertain substitutability raises the expected value of the service and the rate at which it should be discounted. The value effect dominates the discounting effect, so the economic value of natural capital is increased. When the prior beliefs about substitutability are Gaussian, the economic value of future ecosystem services goes to infinity for finite maturities.

Suggested Citation

  • Gollier, Christian, 2017. "Valuation of natural capital under uncertain substitutability," IDEI Working Papers 871, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  • Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:31744
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Drupp, Moritz A. & Hänsel, Martin C., 2018. "Relative prices and climate policy: How the scarcity of non-market goods drives policy evaluation," Economics Working Papers 2018-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; CCAPM beta; discounting; bioeconomics;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development

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