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Learning about the consumption risk exposure of firms

Author

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  • Kim, Yongjin
  • Kuehn, Lars-Alexander
  • Li, Kai

Abstract

We structurally estimate an investment-based asset pricing model, in which firms' exposure to macroeconomic risk is unknown. Bayesian beliefs about this parameter are updated from firms' and industry peers' comovement between their productivity and consumption growth. The model implies that discount rates rise endogenously with the perceived risk exposure of firms, thereby depressing investment and valuation ratios. We test these predictions in the data and find strong support for them. We also confirm that cross-sectional learning from peers is crucial and that alternative Bayesian risk estimates, which ignore peer observations, do not predict firm variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Yongjin & Kuehn, Lars-Alexander & Li, Kai, 2024. "Learning about the consumption risk exposure of firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:152:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x2300199x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103759
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Parameter uncertainty; Bayesian learning; Systematic consumption risk; Investment-based asset pricing; SMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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