IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The implied cost of capital: A new approach

  • Hou, Kewei
  • van Dijk, Mathijs A.
  • Zhang, Yinglei

We use earnings forecasts from a cross-sectional model to proxy for cash flow expectations and estimate the implied cost of capital (ICC) for a large sample of firms over 1968–2008. The earnings forecasts generated by the cross-sectional model are superior to analysts' forecasts in terms of coverage, forecast bias, and earnings response coefficient. Moreover, the model-based ICC is a more reliable proxy for expected returns than the ICC based on analysts' forecasts. We present evidence on the cross-sectional relation between firm-level characteristics and ex ante expected returns using the model-based ICC.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165410111000966
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Accounting and Economics.

Volume (Year): 53 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 504-526

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:53:y:2012:i:3:p:504-526
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jae

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2004. "New lists: Fundamentals and survival rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 229-269, August.
  2. Szilagyi, Jan & Hilscher, Jens & Campbell, John, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Scholarly Articles 3199070, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Hirshleifer, David & Kewei Hou & Teoh, Siew Hong & Yinglei Zhang, 2004. "Do investors overvalue firms with bloated balance sheets?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 297-331, December.
  4. Kewei Hou & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2005. "Market Frictions, Price Delay, and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 981-1020.
  5. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
  6. Hail, Luzi & Leuz, Christian, 2009. "Cost of capital effects and changes in growth expectations around U.S. cross-listings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 428-454, September.
  7. Brown, Lawrence D & Rozeff, Michael S, 1978. "The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-16, March.
  8. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
  9. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  10. Core, John E. & Guay, Wayne R. & Verdi, Rodrigo, 2008. "Is accruals quality a priced risk factor?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 2-22, September.
  11. Fried, Dov & Givoly, Dan, 1982. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : A better surrogate for market expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 85-107, October.
  12. Ilia D. Dichev, 1998. "Is the Risk of Bankruptcy a Systematic Risk?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1131-1147, 06.
  13. Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  14. O'brien, Patricia C., 1988. "Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-83, January.
  15. Lubos Pástor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2008. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2859-2897, December.
  16. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-75, April.
  17. Sudheer Chava & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2010. "Is Default Risk Negatively Related to Stock Returns?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2523-2559, June.
  18. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
  19. Brown, Philip, 1993. "Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 331-335, November.
  20. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  21. Kewei Hou & David T. Robinson, 2006. "Industry Concentration and Average Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1927-1956, 08.
  22. Campbell, John, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  23. Christine A. Botosan, 2002. "A Re-examination of Disclosure Level and the Expected Cost of Equity Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 21-40, 03.
  24. Dan Dhaliwal & Linda Krull & Oliver Zhen Li & William Moser, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Implied Cost of Equity Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 675-708, December.
  25. Paul Hribar, 2002. "Errors in Estimating Accruals: Implications for Empirical Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 105-134, 03.
  26. Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1993. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 84, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  27. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2008. "High Idiosyncratic Volatility and Low Returns: International and Further U.S. Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Luzi Hail & Christian Leuz, 2006. "International Differences in the Cost of Equity Capital: Do Legal Institutions and Securities Regulation Matter?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 485-531, 06.
  29. Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2010. "Profitability Shocks and the Size EFfect in the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Return," Working Paper Series 2010-1, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  30. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, 02.
  31. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
  32. Francis, Jennifer & Schipper, Katherine & Vincent, Linda, 2005. "Earnings and dividend informativeness when cash flow rights are separated from voting rights," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 329-360, June.
  33. Francis, Jennifer & LaFond, Ryan & Olsson, Per & Schipper, Katherine, 2005. "The market pricing of accruals quality," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 295-327, June.
  34. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. James Claus, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
  36. La Porta, Rafael, 1996. " Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-42, December.
  37. Bhandari, Laxmi Chand, 1988. " Debt/Equity Ratio and Expected Common Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 507-28, June.
  38. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay & Sloan, Richard G., 1994. "Lack of timeliness and noise as explanations for the low contemporaneuos return-earnings association," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 289-324, November.
  39. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
  40. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 10852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Edwin J. Elton, 1999. "Presidential Address: Expected Return, Realized Return, and Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1199-1220, 08.
  42. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
  43. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Michael J. Schill, 2008. "Asset Growth and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1609-1651, 08.
  44. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  45. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2006. "Profitability, investment and average returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 491-518, December.
  46. Brown, Lawrence D. & Hagerman, Robert L. & Griffin, Paul A. & Zmijewski, Mark E., 1987. "An evaluation of alternative proxies for the market's assessment of unexpected earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 159-193, July.
  47. Peter D. Easton & Gregory A. Sommers, 2007. "Effect of Analysts' Optimism on Estimates of the Expected Rate of Return Implied by Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 983-1015, December.
  48. Sheridan Titman & K.C. John Wei & Feixue Xie, 2003. "Capital Investments and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 9951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Hollis Ashbaugh-Skaife & Daniel W. Collins & William R. Kinney Jr & Ryan Lafond, 2009. "The Effect of SOX Internal Control Deficiencies on Firm Risk and Cost of Equity," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 1-43, 03.
  50. Wayne Guay & SP Kothari & Susan Shu, 2011. "Properties of implied cost of capital using analysts’ forecasts," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 36(2), pages 125-149, August.
  51. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
  52. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
  53. Blume, Marshall E & Friend, Irwin, 1973. "A New Look at the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 19-33, March.
  54. Lee, Charles & Ng, David & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2009. "Testing International Asset Pricing Models Using Implied Costs of Capital," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(02), pages 307-335, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:53:y:2012:i:3:p:504-526. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.