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The Valuation of Long-Dated Assets

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  • Ian Martin

Abstract

The expected time- and risk-adjusted cumulative return on any asset equals one at all horizons. Nonetheless, I show that a typical asset's realized time- and risk-adjusted cumulative return tends to zero almost surely. As a corollary, the value of a typical long-dated asset is driven by extreme events: either by good news at the level of the individual asset or by bad news at the aggregate level. In the case of the aggregate market, the fact that its Sharpe ratio is higher than its volatility suggests that bad news is the relevant consideration in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Martin, 2010. "The Valuation of Long-Dated Assets," NBER Working Papers 16219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16219
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2011. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1969-2012, December.
    2. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, January.
    3. Ian W. Martin, 2013. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Higher Cumulants," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 745-773.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Asset pricing with uncertain betas: A long-term perspective," IDEI Working Papers 752, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    2. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "A theory of rational short-termism with uncertain betas," LERNA Working Papers 12.14.371, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    3. repec:spr:decfin:v:40:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10203-017-0192-x is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gollier, Christian, 2017. "Valuation of natural capital under uncertain substitutability," TSE Working Papers 17-813, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Beeler, Jason & Campbell, John Y., 2012. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 141-182, January.
    6. Ian Martin, 2013. "The Lucas Orchard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 55-111, January.
    7. Dutt, Tanuj & Humphery-Jenner, Mark, 2013. "Stock return volatility, operating performance and stock returns: International evidence on drivers of the ‘low volatility’ anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 999-1017.
    8. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
    9. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Leisen, Dietmar P.J. & Renault, Eric, 2014. "Aggregation of preferences for skewed asset returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 453-489.
    10. Martin L. Weitzman, 2012. "Rare Disasters, Tail-Hedged Investments, and Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 18496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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