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Asset Pricing with Uncertain Betas: A Long-Term Perspective

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  • Christian Gollier

Abstract

How should one evaluate investment projects whose CCAPM betas are uncertain? This question is particularly crucial for projects yielding long-lasting impacts on the economy, as is the case for example for many green investments. We define the notion of a certainty equivalent beta. We show that its term structure is not constant and that, for short maturities, it equals the expected beta. If the expected beta is larger than a threshold (which is negative and large in absolute value in all realistic calibrations), the term structure of the certainty equivalent beta is increasing and tends to its largest plausible value. If current beliefs concerning the asset’s beta are represented by a normal distribution, the certainty equivalent beta becomes infinite for finite maturities.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gollier, 2013. "Asset Pricing with Uncertain Betas: A Long-Term Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4072, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Katz, Yuri A., 2017. "Value of the distant future: Model-independent results," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 269-276.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset prices; term structure; risk premium; certainty equivalent beta;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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