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Extreme inflation and time-varying consumption growth

Author

Listed:
  • Dergunov, Ilya
  • Meinerding, Christoph
  • Schlag, Christian

Abstract

In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding in ation as a conditioning variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected in ation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics replicate the observed time variation in stock return volatilities and stock-bond return correlations. Furthermore, they provide an alternative way to come up with a measure of time-varying disaster risk in the spirit of Wachter (2013). Our findings imply that both the disaster and the long-run risk paradigm can be extended towards explaining movements in the stock-bond return correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Dergunov, Ilya & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2019. "Extreme inflation and time-varying consumption growth," Discussion Papers 16/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:162019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-run risk; inflation; recursive utility; filtering; disaster risk;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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