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What Information Drives Asset Prices?

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  • Anisha Ghosh
  • George M. Constantinides

Abstract

The market price-dividend ratio is highly correlated with several macroeconomic variables, particularly inflation and labor market variables, but not with aggregate consumption and GDP. We incorporate this observation in an exchange economy with learning about the economic regime from consumption history and a latent signal. The estimated model rationalizes the moments of consumption and dividend growth, market return, price-dividend ratio, and real and nominal term structures and the low predictive power of the price-dividend ratio for consumption and dividend growth while a nested model with learning from consumption history alone does not. The intuition is that the beliefs process has high persistence and low variance because beliefs depend on the signal. The model fit remains largely intact when we replace the latent signal with a combination of macroeconomic variables that heavily loads on inflation and labor market variables. The results highlight the informational role of macroeconomic variables and suggest that just one combination of macroeconomic variables, along with consumption, proxies well for investors’ relevant information set.

Suggested Citation

  • Anisha Ghosh & George M. Constantinides, 2017. "What Information Drives Asset Prices?," NBER Working Papers 23689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23689
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gregory R. Duffee, 2005. "Time Variation in the Covariance between Stock Returns and Consumption Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1673-1712, August.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D00 - Microeconomics - - General - - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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