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Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs

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  • Hui Chen
  • Scott Joslin
  • Ngoc-Khanh Tran

Abstract

Risks of rare economic disasters can have a large impact on asset prices. At the same time, difficulties in inference regarding both the likelihood and severity of disasters, as well as agency problems, can lead to significant disagreements among investors about disaster risk. We show that such disagreements generate strong risk-sharing motives, such that just a small number of optimists in the economy will significantly reduce the disaster risk premium. Our model highlights the "latent" nature of disaster risk. The disaster risk premium will likely be low and smooth during normal times but increases dramatically when the risk-sharing capacity of the optimists is reduced, e.g., following a disaster. The model also helps reconcile the difference in the amount of disaster risk implied by financial markets and international macroeconomic data, and provides caution to the approach of extracting disaster probabilities from asset prices, which will disproportionately reflect the beliefs of a small group of optimists. Finally, our model predicts an inverse U-shaped relation between the equity premium and the size of the disaster insurance market. The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Chen & Scott Joslin & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2012. "Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2189-2224.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:25:y:2012:i:7:p:2189-2224
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2011. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1969-2012, December.
    2. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 579-629, April.
    3. Jun Liu, 2005. "An Equilibrium Model of Rare-Event Premia and Its Implication for Option Smirks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 131-164.
    4. Ian W. R. Martin, 2008. "Disasters and the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 74-78, May.
    5. Leonid Kogan & Stephen A. Ross & Jiang Wang & Mark M. Westerfield, 2006. "The Price Impact and Survival of Irrational Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 195-229, February.
    6. Jiang, Wang, 1996. "The term structure of interest rates in a pure exchange economy with heterogeneous investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 75-110, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Lee, Seungkyu & Lim, Byung Hwa, 2016. "Robust consumption and portfolio rules with time-varying model confidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 342-352.
    2. Peter Christoffersen & Du Du & Redouane Elkamhi, 2013. "Rare Disasters and Credit Market Puzzles," CREATES Research Papers 2013-45, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Bianchi, Francesco, 2008. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 20831, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2010.
    4. repec:bis:bisbps:95 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Carlos O. Arteta & Mark S. Carey & Ricardo Correa & Jason Kotter, 2008. "Which banks sponsored ABCP vehicles and why?," Proceedings 1072, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Ngoc-Khanh Tran & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2011. "The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs are Heterogeneous," NBER Working Papers 17199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:eee:ejores:v:266:y:2018:i:3:p:1175-1188 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2015. "Dynamic equilibrium with rare events and heterogeneous Epstein-Zin investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60737, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Yang-Ho Park, 2013. "Volatility of volatility and tail risk premiums," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Koulovatianos, Christos & Li, Jian & Weber, Fabienne, 2018. "Market fragility and the paradox of the recent stock-bond dissonance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 162-166.
    12. Jaroslav Borovicka, 2011. "Survival and long-run dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs under recursive preferences," Working Paper Series WP-2011-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. Baker, Steven D. & Hollifield, Burton & Osambela, Emilio, 2016. "Disagreement, speculation, and aggregate investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 210-225.
    14. Kadan, Ohad & Liu, Fang, 2014. "Performance evaluation with high moments and disaster risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 131-155.
    15. Oskar Kowalewksi & Piotr Spiewanowski, 2017. "Stock market response to potash mine disasters," Working Papers 2017-ACF-02, IESEG School of Management.
    16. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," NBER Working Papers 19611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:15:y:2012:i:03:n:s0219024912500239 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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