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Testing the boundaries of applicability of standard Stochastic Discount Factor models

Author

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  • Pezzo, Luca
  • Zhu, Yinchu
  • Hassan, M. Kabir
  • Tian, Jiayuan

Abstract

We provide a joint non-parametric test to gather insights on the boundaries of applicability of Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) models. We find that a non-trivial class of models cannot price the U.S. stock market equally weighted portfolio, implying non-monotonic SDFs, especially over the last 50/60 years in (recessionary) periods characterized by higher market volatility. Stocks responsible for this rejection mostly belong to the smallest NYSE market cap decile, are characterized by high idiosyncratic risk, and typically cannot be priced via SDF models where the aggregate level of risk aversion is bigger then 9 or 10. Excluding these stocks increases the ability to explain the cross-section of returns without impairing the ability to span the mean–variance frontier.

Suggested Citation

  • Pezzo, Luca & Zhu, Yinchu & Hassan, M. Kabir & Tian, Jiayuan, 2024. "Testing the boundaries of applicability of standard Stochastic Discount Factor models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:72:y:2024:i:c:s1572308924000536
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101268
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small stocks; Recessionary/volatile periods; Stochastic discount factor; Risk premium; Non-parametric test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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