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The conditional expected market return

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  • Chabi-Yo, Fousseni
  • Loudis, Johnathan

Abstract

We derive lower and upper bounds on the conditional expected excess market return that are related to risk-neutral volatility, skewness, and kurtosis indexes. The bounds can be calculated in real time using a cross section of option prices. The bounds require a no-arbitrage assumption, but they do not depend on distributional assumptions about market returns or past observations. The bounds are highly volatile, positively skewed, and fat-tailed. They imply that the term structure of expected excess holding period returns is decreasing during turbulent times and increasing during normal times and that the expected excess market return is on average 5.2%.

Suggested Citation

  • Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Loudis, Johnathan, 2020. "The conditional expected market return," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 752-786.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:137:y:2020:i:3:p:752-786
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.03.009
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tjeerd de Vries, 2021. "A Tale of Two Tails: A Model-free Approach to Estimating Disaster Risk Premia and Testing Asset Pricing Models," Papers 2105.08208, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    3. Nawalkha, Sanjay K & Zhuo, Xiaoyang, 2020. "A Theory of Equivalent Expectation Measures for Expected Prices of Contingent Claims," OSF Preprints hsxtu, Center for Open Science.
    4. Wang, Yunqi & Zhou, Ti, 2023. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: The role of option-implied constraints," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 199-226.
    5. Akira Yamazaki, 2022. "Recovering subjective probability distributions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1234-1263, July.
    6. Qiao, Kenan & Ji, Zhehan & Xie, Haibin, 2023. "Unrealized return dispersion and the equity risk premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    7. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Chukwuma Dim & Grigory Vilkov, 2023. "Generalized Bounds on the Conditional Expected Excess Return on Individual Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 922-939, February.
    8. Serrano, Pedro & Vaello-Sebastià, Antoni & Vich-Llompart, M. Magdalena, 2024. "The international linkages of market risk perception," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Berkman, Henk & Malloch, Hamish, 2023. "Stock valuation during the COVID-19 pandemic: An explanation using option-based discount rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Sanjay K. Nawalkha & Xiaoyang Zhuo, 2020. "A Theory of Equivalent Expectation Measures for Contingent Claim Returns," Papers 2006.15312, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    11. Nieto, Belén & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2022. "The risk aversion and uncertainty channels between finance and macroeconomics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    12. Back, Kerry & Crotty, Kevin & Kazempour, Seyed Mohammad, 2022. "Validity, tightness, and forecasting power of risk premium bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 732-760.
    13. Rubio, Gonzalo & Serrano, Pedro & Vaello-Sebastià, Antoni, 2023. "The international integration of the term structure of expected market risk premia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity risk premium; Risk-neutral moments; Preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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