IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v167y2024ics0165188924001234.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation of expected return integrating real-time asset prices implied information and historical data

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Shikun
  • Zhu, Shushang
  • Huang, Yi
  • Li, Zhongfei

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a novel estimation for expected stock returns combining forward-looking information implied by real-time asset prices and backward-looking information implied by historical data. Considering a general heterogeneous market composed of both informed investors and noise investors, we investigate the market equilibrium characterized by the expected returns, risk-neutral moments and market portfolio. To mitigate the negative impact of the market noise on the forward-looking information implied in market equilibrium, we then incorporate historical data and propose the combined estimation for expected return within a Bayesian framework. The combined estimation is adaptive to the market composition and adjustable to changes in market states. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical studies are performed to validate the merits of the proposed approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Shikun & Zhu, Shushang & Huang, Yi & Li, Zhongfei, 2024. "Estimation of expected return integrating real-time asset prices implied information and historical data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:167:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001234
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104931
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924001234
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104931?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Ohad Kadan & Xiaoxiao Tang, 2020. "A Bound on Expected Stock Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1565-1617.
    3. Ian W. R. Martin & Dimitris Papadimitriou, 2022. "Sentiment and Speculation in a Market with Heterogeneous Beliefs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2465-2517, August.
    4. Ian W. R. Martin & Christian Wagner, 2019. "What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1887-1929, August.
    5. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    6. Paul Schneider & Christian Wagner & Josef Zechner, 2020. "Low‐Risk Anomalies?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2673-2718, October.
    7. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    8. Ohad Kadan & Xiaoxiao Tang, 2020. "A Bound on Expected Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1565-1617.
    9. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1683, August.
    10. Alexander Kempf & Olaf Korn & Sven Saßning, 2015. "Portfolio Optimization Using Forward-Looking Information," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 467-490.
    11. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    12. Zhu, Shushang & Fan, Minjie & Li, Duan, 2014. "Portfolio management with robustness in both prediction and decision: A mixture model based learning approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-25.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1235-1258 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Nicholas Barberis & Lawrence J. Jin & Baolian Wang, 2021. "Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2639-2687, October.
    15. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    17. Lee, Cheng F. & Wu, Chunchi & Wei, K. C. John, 1990. "The Heterogeneous Investment Horizon and the Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Implications," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 361-376, September.
    18. William F. Sharpe, 2007. "Expected Utility Asset Allocation," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 63(5), pages 18-30, September.
    19. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
    20. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Chukwuma Dim & Grigory Vilkov, 2023. "Generalized Bounds on the Conditional Expected Excess Return on Individual Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 922-939, February.
    21. Duan Li & Wan‐Lung Ng, 2000. "Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean‐Variance Formulation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 387-406, July.
    22. Wang, Yunqi & Zhou, Ti, 2023. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: The role of option-implied constraints," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 199-226.
    23. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    24. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
    25. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2009. "Variance Risk Premiums," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1311-1341, March.
    26. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    27. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:4:p:1651-1684 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:407-446 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Loudis, Johnathan, 2020. "The conditional expected market return," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 752-786.
    30. Anand, Amber & Chakravarty, Sugato, 2007. "Stealth Trading in Options Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 167-187, March.
    31. Back, Kerry & Crotty, Kevin & Kazempour, Seyed Mohammad, 2022. "Validity, tightness, and forecasting power of risk premium bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 732-760.
    32. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lili Chen, 2024. "Data assetization and capital market information efficiency: evidence from Hidden Champion SMEs in China," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angelo Aspris & Ester Félez‐Viñas & Sean Foley & Hamish Malloch & Jiri Svec, 2024. "The market risk premium in Australia: Forward‐looking evidence from the options market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(4), pages 3951-3972, December.
    2. Wang, Yunqi & Zhou, Ti, 2023. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: The role of option-implied constraints," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 199-226.
    3. Yi Huang & Wei Zhu & Duan Li & Shushang Zhu & Shikun Wang, 2023. "Integrating Different Informations for Portfolio Selection," Papers 2305.17881, arXiv.org.
    4. Back, Kerry & Crotty, Kevin & Kazempour, Seyed Mohammad, 2022. "Validity, tightness, and forecasting power of risk premium bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 732-760.
    5. Can Gao & Ian W. R. Martin, 2021. "Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3211-3254, December.
    6. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Chukwuma Dim & Grigory Vilkov, 2023. "Generalized Bounds on the Conditional Expected Excess Return on Individual Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 922-939, February.
    7. Geert Bekaert & Eric C. Engstrom & Nancy R. Xu, 2022. "The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 3975-4004, June.
    8. Ian W. R. Martin & Christian Wagner, 2019. "What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1887-1929, August.
    9. Liu, Hong & Tang, Xiaoxiao & Zhou, Guofu, 2022. "Recovering the FOMC risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 45-68.
    10. Christoffersen, Peter & Fournier, Mathieu & Jacobs, Kris & Karoui, Mehdi, 2021. "Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Coskewness and Cokurtosis Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 65-91, February.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor, 2023. "The jump leverage risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    12. Jungah Yoon & Xinfeng Ruan & Jin E. Zhang, 2022. "VIX option‐implied volatility slope and VIX futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1002-1038, June.
    13. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.
    14. Mathieu Fournier & Kris Jacobs & Piotr Orłowski, 2024. "Modeling Conditional Factor Risk Premia Implied by Index Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2289-2338, June.
    15. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Turan G. Bali & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Risk, uncertainty, and expected returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2023. "The sum of all fears: Forecasting international returns using option-implied risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, March.
    19. Gao, Lin & Süss, Stephan, 2015. "Market sentiment in commodity futures returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 84-103.
    20. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2019. "Moment spreads in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 598-609.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:167:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.