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Sentiment and Speculation in a Market with Heterogeneous Beliefs

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Abstract

We present a dynamic model featuring risk-averse investors with heterogeneous beliefs. Individual investors have stable beliefs and risk aversion, but agents who were correct in hindsight become relatively wealthy; their beliefs are overrepresented in market sentiment, so “the market†is bullish following good news and bearish following bad news. Extreme states are far more important than in a homogeneous economy. Investors understand that sentiment drives volatility up, and demand high risk premia in compensation. Moderate investors supply liquidity: they trade against market sentiment in the hope of capturing a variance risk premium created by the presence of extremists.

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  • Martin, Ian & ,, 2019. "Sentiment and Speculation in a Market with Heterogeneous Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 13857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13857
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    Cited by:

    1. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    2. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Can Gao & Ian W. R. Martin, 2021. "Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3211-3254, December.
    4. Shahsuzan Zakaria & Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid & Dheya Hamood Saif Al-Fakih, 2024. "Financial Risk: Case Study Analysis," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 16(1), pages 250-260.
    5. Zhang, Xuetong & Zhang, Weiguo, 2023. "Information asymmetry, sentiment interactions, and asset price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Hervé Roche & Juan Sotes-Paladino, 2022. "Sentiment, Mispricing and Excess Volatility in Presence of Institutional Investors," Working Papers 205, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous beliefs; Excess volatility; Sentiment; Speculation; Target prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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