IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/jfinec/v19y2021i1p39-52..html

On the Autocorrelation of the Stock Market
[X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model]

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Martin

Abstract

I introduce an index of market return autocorrelation based on the prices of index options and of forward-start index options and implement it at a six-month horizon. The results suggest that the autocorrelation of the S&P 500 index was close to zero before the subprime crisis but was negative in its aftermath, attaining values around –20% to –30%. I speculate that this may reflect market perceptions about the likely reaction, via quantitative easing, of policymakers to future market moves.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Martin, 2021. "On the Autocorrelation of the Stock Market [X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 39-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:19:y:2021:i:1:p:39-52.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbaa033
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weiguang Han & Boyi Zhang & Qianqian Xie & Min Peng & Yanzhao Lai & Jimin Huang, 2023. "Select and Trade: Towards Unified Pair Trading with Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2301.10724, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    2. María T. González-Pérez, 2021. "Lessons from estimating the average option-implied volatility term structure for the Spanish banking sector," Working Papers 2128, Banco de España.
    3. Martin, Ian W. R., 2025. "Information in derivatives markets: forecasting prices with prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128212, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Samuel Tabot Enow, 2023. "Random walk and modelling stock return: Evidence from international stock markets," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 12(3), pages 353-360, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:19:y:2021:i:1:p:39-52.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sofieea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.