IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/222012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Makes the VIX Tick?

Author

Listed:
  • Warren Bailey

    (Cornell University)

  • Lin Zheng

    (City College of New York)

  • Yinggang Zhou

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Abstract

We seek the roots of one-minute changes in VIX, an index of S&P 500 option prices, to understand risk neutral volatility and its risk premium component. Beyond leverage and risk premium effects, macroeconomic influences and some proxies for noise trading in the S&P 500 ETF market are significant, though measures of small investor sentiment have little significance. VIX changes display negative serial correlation suggesting liquidity provision in the options market. Temporary price effects are observed around macroeconomic news releases. Though often viewed as an exogenous state variable, a significant portion of VIX variability relates to trader behavior and macroeconomic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Warren Bailey & Lin Zheng & Yinggang Zhou, 2012. "What Makes the VIX Tick?," Working Papers 222012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:222012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/335/wp-no-22_2012-final-.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    2. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    3. Harris, Lawrence & Sofianos, George & Shapiro, James E, 1994. "Program Trading and Intraday Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 653-685.
    4. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    5. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    6. Peter Klibanoff & Owen Lamont & Thierry A. Wizman, 1998. "Investor Reaction to Salient News in Closed-End Country Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 673-699, April.
    7. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    8. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. " Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July.
    9. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim & Marrone, James & Xu, Lai & Zhou, Hao, 2014. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia: Statistical Inference and International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(03), pages 633-661, June.
    11. Chen, Nai-fu & Kan, Raymond & Miller, Merton H, 1993. " Are the Discounts on Closed-End Funds a Sentiment Index?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 795-800, June.
    12. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2011. "What Does Equity Sector Orderflow Tell Us About the Economy?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3688-3730.
    13. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Tails, Fears, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2165-2211, December.
    14. David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench, 2015. "The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 329-371, February.
    15. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. " Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    16. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    17. Bailey, Warren & Stulz, René M., 1989. "The Pricing of Stock Index Options in a General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 1-12, March.
    18. Patell, James M. & Wolfson, Mark A., 1979. "Anticipated information releases reflected in call option prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 117-140, August.
    19. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    20. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    21. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    22. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, June.
    23. Itamar Drechsler & Amir Yaron, 2011. "What's Vol Got to Do with It," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 1-45.
    24. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    25. Ian Martin, 2011. "Simple Variance Swaps," NBER Working Papers 16884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Robert F. Engle & Asger Lunde, 2003. "Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 1(2), pages 159-188.
    27. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    28. Stulz, ReneM., 1986. "Interest rates and monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 331-347, May.
    29. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    30. Kay Giesecke & Francis A. Longstaff & Stephen Schaefer & Ilya Strebulaev, 2010. "Corporate Bond Default Risk: A 150-Year Perspective," NBER Working Papers 15848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2011. "The Bear's Lair: Index Credit Default Swaps and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(10), pages 3250-3280.
    32. Gordon Gemmill & Dylan C. Thomas, 2002. "Noise Trading, Costly Arbitrage, and Asset Prices: Evidence from Closed-end Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2571-2594, December.
    33. Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 1996. "Time-Varying Expected Small Firm Returns and Closed-End Fund Discounts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 845-887.
    34. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
    35. Zhou, Guofu & Zhu, Yingzi, 2012. "Volatility Trading: What Is the Role of the Long-Run Volatility Component?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(02), pages 273-307, June.
    36. Edith S. Hotchkiss & Tavy Ronen, 2002. "The Informational Efficiency of the Corporate Bond Market: An Intraday Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1325-1354.
    37. Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2004. "Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Orderflow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2623-2654, December.
    38. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
    39. Jiang, George J. & Lo, Ingrid, 2014. "Private information flow and price discovery in the U.S. treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 118-133.
    40. Lucy F. Ackert & Yisong S. Tian, 2000. "Arbitrage and Valuation in the Market forStandard and Poor's Depository Receipts," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 29(3), Fall.
    41. Michael W. Brandt & Alon Brav & John R. Graham & Alok Kumar, 2010. "The Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Time Trend or Speculative Episodes?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 863-899, February.
    42. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    43. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
    44. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, February.
    45. Ross, Stephen A, 1989. " Information and Volatility: The No-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-17, March.
    46. Bruce Ian Carlin & Miguel Sousa Lobo & S. Viswanathan, 2007. "Episodic Liquidity Crises: Cooperative and Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2235-2274, October.
    47. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
    48. Bing Han, 2008. "Investor Sentiment and Option Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 387-414, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VIX; Implied Volatility; Volatility Risk Premium; Investor Sentiment;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:222012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.