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Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Which Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?
    by noreply@blogger.com (Carola) in Quantitative Ease on 2015-09-06 17:04:00
  2. The Phillips Curve and Inflation
    by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog on 2016-05-21 23:08:29

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:

  1. D'Agostino, Antonello & Mendicino, Caterina, 2014. "Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects," MPRA Paper 53607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Terry J. Fitzgerald & Callum J. Jones & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2020. "Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?," Staff Report 614, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.
  4. Jeffrey Schafer, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03," Working Papers 57398, Congressional Budget Office.
  5. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve," Kiel Policy Brief 79, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  6. Hideaki Aoyama & Corrado Guilmi & Yoshi Fujiwara & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2022. "Dual labor market and the “Phillips curve puzzle”: the Japanese experience," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1419-1435, November.
  7. Kristin Forbes, 2019. "Has globalization changed the inflation process?," BIS Working Papers 791, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Yoosoon Chang & Ana María Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil prices uncertainty, endogenous regime switching, and inflation anchoring," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 820-839, September.
  9. Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Le retour de l’économie keynésienne," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 173-186.
  10. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2019. "Thoughts on a review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403251, HAL.
  11. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
  12. Arai, Natsuki, 2023. "The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  13. Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
  14. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
  15. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
  16. Hadrien Camatte & Guillaume Daudin & Violaine Faubert & Antoine Lalliard & Christine Rifflart, 2021. "Global value chains and the transmission of exchange rate shocks to consumer prices," Working Papers hal-03374355, HAL.
  17. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.
  18. Marco Airaudo & Luca Bossi, 2017. "Consumption Externalities And Monetary Policy With Limited Asset Market Participation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 601-623, January.
  19. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
  20. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2019. "A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short‐Term Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 111-137, February.
  21. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martínez García & Christopher J. Neely, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 425-460, October.
  22. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  23. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 29-50, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  24. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2018. "Do inflation expectations granger cause inflation?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 403-431, August.
  25. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
  26. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
  27. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem O. Isah & Idris Ademuyiwa, 2017. "Testing for asymmetries in the predictive model for oil price-inflation nexus," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1797-1804.
  28. Maas, Alexander S. & Lu, Liang, 2020. "“Elections have Consequences”: Partisan Politics are Literally Killing Us," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304457, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  29. Marianna Riggi & Sergio Santoro, 2015. "On the Slope and the Persistence of the Italian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 157-197, March.
  30. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
  31. Martin Geiger & Marios Zachariadis, 2019. "Assessing Expectations as a Monetary/Fiscal State-Dependent Phenomenon," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2019, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  32. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross, 2023. "Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 733-743, May.
  33. Chiara Fratto & Harald Uhlig, 2014. "Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation and Employment: A Retro Analysis," NBER Working Papers 20707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2023. "Energy prices and inflation expectations: Evidence from households and firms," Discussion Papers 28/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  35. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  36. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_012 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
  38. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
  39. Moretti, Laura & Onorante, Luca & Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Phillips curves in the euro area," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
  40. Sirio Aramonte, 2022. "Inflation risk and the labor market: beneath the surface of a flat Phillips curve," BIS Working Papers 1054, Bank for International Settlements.
  41. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
  42. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  43. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 73-132, February.
  44. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2022. "The effect of rising energy prices amid geopolitical developments and supply disruptions," Working Papers No 07/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  45. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar & Jane Ryngaert, 2018. "Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 24987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Lena Dräger & Giang Nghiem, 2021. "Are Consumers' Spending Decisions in Line with A Euler Equation?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 580-596, July.
  47. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Christopher J. Neely, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2020-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 02 Nov 2020.
  48. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Discussion Papers 48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  49. Abbate, Angela & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2016. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 41/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  50. Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Phillips in A Revolution: Unemployment and Prices in Early 21st Century Egypt," Working Papers 1453, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Dec 2020.
  51. Ewa Stanisławska, 2019. "Consumers’ Perception of Inflation in Inflationary and Deflationary Environment," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 41-71, April.
  52. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
  53. Troy Davig, 2016. "Phillips Curve Instability and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 233-246, February.
  54. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  55. Tatsushi Okuda & Tomohiro Tsuruga & Francesco Zanetti, 2019. "Imperfect Information, Shock Heterogeneity, and Inflation Dynamics," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  56. Moses Tule & Afees A. Salisu & Charles Chimeke, 2018. "You are what you eat: The role of oil price in Nigeria inflation forecast," Working Papers 040, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
  57. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2018. "Why does the revovery show so little inflation," Post-Print hal-03471719, HAL.
  58. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts," Working Papers 2025, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  59. Florin Aliu & Jiří Kučera & Simona Hašková, 2023. "Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, March.
  60. Marius Brülhart & Didier Dupertuis & Elodie Moreau, 2018. "Inheritance flows in Switzerland, 1911–2011," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-13, December.
  61. Engin Kara & Ahmed Pirzada, 2020. "A Possible Explanation Of The Missing Deflation Puzzle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 361-373, January.
  62. Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula Ephraim Ogbonna, 2017. "Improving the Predictive ability of oil for inflation: An ADL-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 025, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
  63. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 239-261, February.
  64. Fratianni, Michele & Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico, 2022. "The medium-run Phillips curve: A time–frequency investigation for the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  65. Bazhal, Iurii, 2015. "Impact of Wage Policy on Economic Growth in Transitive Countries and New Interpretation of the Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 67106, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2015.
  66. Jacopo Bizzotto & Benjamin Solow, 2019. "Electoral Competition with Strategic Disclosure," Games, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, July.
  67. Francesca Rondina, 2018. "Estimating Unobservable Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, February.
  68. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
  69. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2021. "Global and Local Components of Output Gaps," KOF Working papers 21-497, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  70. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2014. "Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices," NBER Working Papers 20576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  71. Khalaf, Lynda & Lin, Zhenjiang, 2021. "Projection-based inference with particle swarm optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  72. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  73. Mallick, Debdulal, 2019. "Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1077-1094.
  74. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2018. "How do consumers interpret the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations? Evidence from U.S. survey data," Working Papers 2018-13, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
  75. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
  76. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Expectation Formation and the Phillips Curve Revisited," MPRA Paper 119478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  77. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 1-37, December.
  78. D’Amuri, Francesco & De Philippis, Marta & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Lo Bello, Salvatore, 2022. "Slack and prices during Covid-19: Accounting for labor market participation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  79. Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar Prasad, 2018. "New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Labor Costs in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 24266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  80. Engin Kara & Ahmed Jamal Pirzaday, 2015. "Risk, Intermediate Input Prices and Missing Deflation During the Great Recession," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1521, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  81. Claudio Borio, 2017. "Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 87-98, April.
  82. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 5-71, February.
  83. Choi, Yoonseok, 2021. "Inflation dynamics, the role of inflation at different horizons and inflation uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 649-662.
  84. Claus, Edda & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2020. "Monetary policy shocks from the consumer perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 159-173.
  85. Hie Joo Ahn & Choongryul Yang, 2022. "Effects of Monetary Policy on Household Expectations: The Role of Homeownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  86. Carola Binder & Alex Rodrigue, 2018. "Household Informedness and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(2), pages 580-598, October.
  87. Francesco D'Amuri & Marta De Philippis & Elisa Guglielminetti & Salvatore Lo Bello, 2021. "Natural unemployment and activity rates: flow-based determinants and implications for price dynamics," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  88. Gregor Boehl & Philipp Lieberknecht, 2021. "The Hockey Stick Phillips Curve and the Zero Lower Bound," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_266, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  89. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Activity and Its Variation Over Time in Latvia," Working Papers 2016/03, Latvijas Banka.
  90. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," Post-Print hal-03794336, HAL.
  91. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
  92. Toshihiko Mukoyama & Mototsugu Shintani & Kazuhiro Teramoto, 2021. "Cyclical Part‐Time Employment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model with Search Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 1929-1968, December.
  93. Steve Ambler, 2017. "How to Make Monetary Policy More Effective," Working Paper series 17-24, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  94. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  95. Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2018. "Financial Frictions, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 89429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  96. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
  97. Serdar Birinci & Fatih Karahan & Yusuf Mercan & Kurt See, 2022. "Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2022-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Sep 2023.
  98. Friedrich, Christian, 2016. "Global inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period: What explains the puzzles?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 31-34.
  99. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2020. "A note on the stability of the Swedish Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2573-2612, December.
  100. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2021/17, Norges Bank.
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  102. Duncan, Roberto & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2019. "New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1008-1031.
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  127. Elena Bobeica & Marek Jarociński, 2019. "Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation: A VAR Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 199-232, March.
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  129. Claudio Barbieri & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano, 2021. "The Anatomy of Government Bond Yields Synchronization in the Eurozone," LEM Papers Series 2021/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  130. Consolo, Agostino & Da Silva, António Dias, 2019. "The euro area labour market through the lens of the Beveridge curve," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
  131. Chao Chiung Ting, 2018. "Phillips Curve Is a Particular Case that Economists Misinterpret the Correlation between Two Dependent Variables for Causal Relation," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(11), pages 1-70, November.
  132. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
  133. Junichi Kikuchi & Yoshiyuki Nakazono, 2023. "The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Microdata Evidence from Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1609-1632, September.
  134. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2020. "Inflation Globally," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 8, pages 269-316, Central Bank of Chile.
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