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Personal Inflation Rates in the Euro Area

Author

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  • Nghiem, Giang
  • Marenčák, Michal

Abstract

Using granular household-level spending data from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, we document new stylized facts on the heterogeneity of personally realized inflation across different inflation regimes in the euro area. During the period of low inflation (April 2020 – April 2021) and the period of sticky inflation (January 2024 – October 2024), homeowners, high-income households, and older individuals experienced lower inflation. However, during the inflation surge (July 2021 – October 2023), this pattern reversed as rising energy and food prices disproportionately affected these groups, outweighing their lower spending shares in these categories. Personally experienced inflation accounts for a significant share of the variation in inflation perceptions, inflation expectations, and broader macroeconomic expectations, including personal income expectations. Moreover, these relationships differ notably across inflation regimes.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nghiem, Giang & Marenčák, Michal, 2025. "Personal Inflation Rates in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325454, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325454
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 326-368, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger & Michal Marenčák & Giang Nghiem & Maritta Paloviita, 2026. "Heterogeneity in Consumers' Economic Expectations Across Euro Area Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 12725, CESifo.
    2. Dräger, Lena & Marencak, Michal & Nghiem, Giang & Paloviita, Maritta, 2026. "Heterogeneity in Consumers' Economic Expectations across Euro Area Countries," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-747, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    3. Ondrej Kusenda & Michal Marencak, 2025. "Attention to food prices and the upward bias in inflation expectations," Working and Discussion Papers WP 9/2025, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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