IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/jeurec/v21y2023i6p2518-2546..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carbon Taxation and Greenflation: Evidence from Europe and Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Maximilian Konradt
  • Beatrice Weder

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of carbon pricing on inflation dynamics. We construct a sample of carbon taxes implemented in Europe and Canada over three decades and estimate the response of inflation and price components to carbon pricing. Our empirical results suggest that carbon taxes did not significantly increase inflation, with dynamic effects estimated around zero in most specifications. Instead we find support for relative price changes, increasing the cost of energy but leaving the price of other goods and services unaffected. This is consistent with previous findings on the limited aggregate economic costs of carbon taxes. Based on the cross-section of taxes in Europe, we provide suggestive evidence that the response of inflation was especially muted in countries with revenue-neutral carbon taxes and autonomous central banks that can accommodate potential inflationary pressure associated with carbon pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximilian Konradt & Beatrice Weder, 2023. "Carbon Taxation and Greenflation: Evidence from Europe and Canada," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2518-2546.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:21:y:2023:i:6:p:2518-2546.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvad020
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    3. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2014. "How do oil price shocks affect consumer prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 313-323.
    4. Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-561, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amit Roy & Pu Chen & Willi Semmler, 2025. "Carbon Tax Versus Renewable Energy Innovation: Theoretical Insights and Empirical Evidence," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), April.
    2. Diego R. Känzig & Maximilian Konradt, 2024. "Climate Policy and the Economy: Evidence from Europe’s Carbon Pricing Initiatives," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1081-1124, September.
    3. Morão, Hugo, 2024. "The impact of carbon policy news on the national energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Yannis Dafermos, 2024. "The climate crisis meets the ECB: tinkering around the edges or paradigm shift?," Working Papers 264, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    5. Le, Anh H., 2025. "Climate change and Carbon policy: A story of optimal green macroprudential and capital flow management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Xia, Xiqiang & Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Dogan, Eyup, 2024. "Transition towards the sustainable development: unraveling the effects of mineral markets, Belt & Road Initiative, and the Paris Agreement on green economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Ren'e Aid & Maria Arduca & Sara Biagini & Luca Taschini, 2025. "Emission impossible: Balancing Environmental Concerns and Inflation," Papers 2501.16953, arXiv.org.
    8. Agung Suwandaru & Widhiyo Sudiyono & Ahmed Shawdari & Yuntawati Fristin, 2024. "Understanding the Economic Drivers of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: An Econometric Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, August.
    9. Nicolás Aguila & Joscha Wullweber, 2024. "Greener and cheaper: green monetary policy in the era of inflation and high interest rates," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, March.
    10. Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Naoya Kishi, 2024. "Changes in the Global Economic Landscape and Issues for Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    11. Adrien Bilal & James H. Stock, 2025. "Macroeconomics and Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 33567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Giovanardi, Francesco & Kaldorf, Matthias, 2025. "Pro-cyclical emissions, real externalities, and optimal monetary policy," Discussion Papers 04/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Hochmuth, Philipp & Krusell, Per & Mitman, Kurt, 2025. "Distributional Consequences of Becoming Climate-Neutral," IZA Discussion Papers 17861, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Chung, Changwoo & Kim, Jinsoo, 2024. "Greenflation, a myth or fact? Empirical evidence from 26 OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross, 2023. "Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 733-743, May.
    2. Lee, Seojin & Kim, Young Min, 2025. "The inflationary impact of oil price shock in Korea: The role of inflation expectations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.13, Bank of Israel.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," Working Papers 2312, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Antonio J., Garzón & Luis A., Hierro, 2022. "Inflation, oil prices and exchange rates. The Euro’s dampening effect," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 130-146.
    6. Janet L. Yellen, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy : A speech at the Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, September 24, 2015," Speech 863, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    9. Wen, Fenghua & Zhao, Cong & Hu, Chunyan, 2019. "Time-varying effects of international copper price shocks on China's producer price index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 507-514.
    10. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "A review of resource curse burden on inflation in Venezuela," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    11. Чернявский Денис // Chernyavskiy Denis & Сейдахметов Ансар // Seidakhmetov Ansar, 2023. "Влияние повышения цен на горюче-смазочные материалы (ГСМ) на инфляцию: опыт Казахстана. // The impact of the increase in prices for fuels and lubricants on inflation: the experience of Kazakhstan," Working Papers #2023-6, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    12. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    13. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2020. "Time-frequency co-movements between oil prices and interest rates: Evidence from a wavelet-based approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
    15. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    16. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    17. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Oil price pass-through into consumer prices: Evidence from U.S. weekly data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    18. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2019. "Asymmetric oil price transmission to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: A multiple threshold NARDL modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Yiqun Gloria Chen, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07," Working Papers 55501, Congressional Budget Office.
    20. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:21:y:2023:i:6:p:2518-2546.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/jeea .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.