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Gasoline Prices Unlikely to Bring Down Inflation in 2023

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Abstract

Gasoline prices can influence inflation both directly (by changing prices at the pump) and indirectly (by shaping consumers’ inflation expectations). Through these channels, gasoline prices have played an important role in the run-up and recent decline in inflation. Although gasoline prices have declined from their all-time highs, they are expected to remain relatively stable in 2023. As a result, gasoline prices are unlikely to deliver further reductions in either inflation or inflation expectations this year.

Suggested Citation

  • Nida Çakır Melek & Francis Dillon & Andrew Lee Smith, 2023. "Gasoline Prices Unlikely to Bring Down Inflation in 2023," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue February , pages 1-4, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkeb:95695
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    2. Nida Çakır Melek & Francis Dillon & Andrew Lee Smith, 2022. "Can Higher Gasoline Prices Set Off an Inflationary Spiral?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 107(no.4), November.
    3. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2008. "A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 433-457, August.
    4. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2021. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1615-1639.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment

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