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Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

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Abstract

We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with a frictional labor market and on-the-job search to study how employer-to-employer (EE) transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes and monetary policy. We find that EE dynamics significantly shaped inflation during the Great Recession and COVID-19 recoveries. Despite similar unemployment paths, the former experienced weaker EE transitions and lower inflation. Optimal monetary policy prescribes a strong positive response to EE fluctuations, implying central banks should distinguish between episodes with similar unemployment but different EE patterns. We show that accounting for market incompleteness alters macroeconomic outcomes and optimal monetary policy prescriptions upon changes in EE transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Birinci & Fatih Karahan & Yusuf Mercan & Kurt See, 2022. "Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2022-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Feb 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94640
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2022.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahn, Hie Joo & Rudd, Jeremy B., 2025. "(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Darougheh, Saman & Faccini, Renato & Melosi, Leonardo & Villa, Alessandro T., 2024. "On-the-Job Search and Inflation under the Microscope," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1536, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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