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On-the-Job Search and Inflation Under the Microscope

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Abstract

We develop a model where heterogeneous agents choose whether to engage in on-the-job search (OJS) to improve labor income. The model accounts for untargeted microdata patterns: fiscal incentives affect job-to-job mobility and wage growth of stayers—but not leavers—across the income distribution, pointing to OJS as a key driver of labor costs. Calibrated to micro and macro moments, the model shows that OJS cost shocks significantly affect real activity and inflation. The permanent decline in OJS costs—driven by ICT and AI-based tools—offers a novel explanation for the weakening of the unemployment-inflation relationship documented in empirical studies.

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  • Saman Darougheh & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi & Alessandro Villa, 2025. "On-the-Job Search and Inflation Under the Microscope," Working Paper Series WP 2025-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:101279
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2025-10
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    Keywords

    Job ladder; Inflation; Wages; Tax incentives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

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