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A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Yusuf Mercan
  • Benjamin Schoefer
  • Petr Sedláček

Abstract

We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations in which new-hires and incumbent-workers are imperfect substitutes. Hence, attempts to hire away the unemployed during recessions diminish the marginal product of new hires, discouraging job creation. This single feature achieves a ten-fold increase in the volatility of hiring in an otherwise standard search model, produces a realistic Beveridge curve despite countercyclical separations, and explains 30–40% of US unemployment fluctuations. Additionally, it explains the excess procyclicality of new hires’ wages, the cyclical labor wedge, countercyclical earnings losses from job displacement, and the limited steady-state effects of unemployment insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Mercan & Benjamin Schoefer & Petr Sedláček, 2021. "A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 28771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28771
    Note: EFG LS ME PR
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Ganong & Fiona Greig & Max Liebeskind & Pascal Noel & Daniel Sullivan & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data," Working Papers 2021-19, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    2. Simon Jäger & Christopher Roth & Nina Roussille & Benjamin Schoefer, 2024. "Worker Beliefs About Outside Options," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1505-1556.
    3. Fernandes, Guilherme & Wardil, Lucas, 2025. "Evolutionary analysis of a simple Minority Game: Coexistence, dominance, and paradoxical outcomes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 669(C).
    4. Takano, Tetsuaki, 2024. "Beveridge curve under endogenous separation model: The role of wage rigidity and match-specific productivity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Wu, Jhih-Chian, 2025. "Job separation shocks, costly vacancy creation and job rationing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2022. "Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-55.
    7. Serdar Birinci & Fatih Karahan & Yusuf Mercan & Kurt See, 2022. "Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2022-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Feb 2026.
    8. Bennedsen, Morten & Larsen, Birthe & Schmutte, Ian M. & Scur, Daniela, 2023. "The effect of preserving job matches during a crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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