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The role of import prices in flattening the Phillips curve: Evidence from Korea

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  • Ahn, JaeBin
  • Lee, Jiwon

Abstract

Are global inflation synchronization and the flattening of the Phillips curve across the globe related? The globalization hypothesis has been proposed to explain the relationship but questions remain on its quantitative role. Focusing on South Korea, one of Asia-Pacific supply chain hubs, this paper investigates the extent to which import prices affect domestic price inflation over the period between 2002 and 2020. Specifically, we conduct the regression decomposition method to identify major sources of variation in domestic inflation, followed by a subsequent set of comparative analyses across various inflation forecasting models. Our findings confirm a tight link from import prices to domestic prices, with a 10pp increase in IPI inflation passed onto PPI and CPI inflation by 3.9pp and 3.4pp over time, respectively. The main finding of this study is consistent with the recent global inflation surge that has been driven largely by imported food and energy price channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahn, JaeBin & Lee, Jiwon, 2023. "The role of import prices in flattening the Phillips curve: Evidence from Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:86:y:2023:i:c:s1049007823000258
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2023.101605
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gita Gopinath & Emine Boz & Camila Casas & Federico J. Díez & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2020. "Dominant Currency Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 677-719, March.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    3. Raphael A. Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017. "The Globalisation of Inflation: The Growing Importance of Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6387, CESifo.
    4. Sushanta Mallick & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 677-694, September.
    5. Min Chang & Changho Choi & Keunhyeong Park, 2016. "Inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period: Korea's experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 221-230, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Ahn JaeBin & Park Chang-Gui & Park Chanho, 2017. "Pass-through of imported input prices to domestic producer prices: evidence from sector-level data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-14, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Import price; Producer price; Consumer price; Inflation; Phillips curve; Pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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