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News Selection and Household Inflation Expectations

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Abstract

We examine the impact of systematic media reporting on household inflation expectations, focusing on how selective news coverage influences household responses to inflation news. In a model where monitoring all economic developments is costly, households will account for news selection when forming inflation expectations. The model implies an asymmetry: news about high inflation influences inflation expectations more than news about low inflation. Using micro panel data, we find support for this hypothesis. Exposure to news about higher prices increases household inflation expectations by approximately 0.4 percentage point, whereas exposure to news about lower prices has no discernible effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Chahrour & Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J. Wilson, 2024. "News Selection and Household Inflation Expectations," Working Paper Series 2024-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:98949
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Larsen, Vegard H. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zhulanova, Julia, 2021. "News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 507-520.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
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    5. Ryan Chahrour & Kristoffer Nimark & Stefan Pitschner, 2021. "Sectoral Media Focus and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 3872-3922, December.
    6. Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J Wilson, 2022. "Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2768-2805.
    7. Bharat Trehan, 2011. "Household inflation expectations and the price of oil: it's déjà vu all over again," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may23.
    8. Michael Ehrmann & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2017. "Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 225-259, February.
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    11. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    12. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2021. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1615-1639.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; news; media; selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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